No Postmaterialists in Foxholes: Modernization, Nationalism and National Threat in the People’s Republic of China and Beyond by Jonathan Joseph Reilly B.A. (East Asian Studies), College of William and Mary, 1995 M.A. (International Affairs), University of Pittsburgh, 2001 Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2013 UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences This dissertation was presented by Jonathan Joseph Reilly It was defended on October 4th, 2012 and approved by Pierre F. Landry, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science Scott Morgenstern, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science Wenfang Tang, Professor and C. Maxwell and Elizabeth M. Stanley Family and Hua Hsia Chair of Chinese Culture and Institutions, University of Iowa Dissertation Advisor: David C. Barker, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science ii Copyright © by Jonathan J. Reilly 2013 iii David C. Barker Dissertation Chair / Advisor NO POSTMATERIALISTS IN FOXHOLES: MODERNIZATION, NATIONALISM AND NATIONAL THREAT IN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA AND BEYOND Jonathan J. Reilly, Ph.D. University of Pittsburgh, 2013 The theoretical and empirical underpinnings of contemporary modernization and postmaterialism literature strongly imply an insidious Catch-22 dilemma for contemporary authoritarian regimes. If such regimes fail to deliver economic growth, they lose their key basis of popular support and are removed from power. If such regimes are successful in effecting heightened socio-economic growth, they unwittingly unleash an attendant set of societal changes that render their autocratic mode of rule increasingly unpalatable to the very population that has so keenly benefited from the economic goods that they have provided. The causal mechanism linking economic failure with regime demise in the first scenario is rather straightforward; in the second scenario it is the emergence and expansion of postmodern “self-expression” values – with postmaterialist values emphasizing emancipation and personal choice at their core – that serve as the causal linkage between economic prosperity and popular demand for political liberalization. The current study has provided theoretical and empirical evidence indicating that individuals’ perception of the relative level of external threat facing their nation has potentially profound consequences for their measured levels of postmaterialist values, with higher levels of perceived threat/insecurity tending to be associated with lower levels of overall postmaterialism and lower iv levels of threat/insecurity tending to be associated with higher levels of postmaterialism. As the findings in the current study strongly indicate, citizens’ perception of the extent to which the relative power and prestige of their nation as a whole are either threatened or assured is likely to also have a strong impact on their ordering of the values priorities contained within the postmaterialism question batteries. Yet long-term predictions presented in the extant modernization literature regarding the development of postmaterialist/self-expression values in economically-developing authoritarian societies – and the increasing demands for democratization that they are presumed to bring – have generally made virtually no reference to issues of critical issues of national pride, national identity or national threat. The findings of the current study thus indicate that such predictions need to be re-visited and possibly revised, with a broader set of societal factors, indicators and phenomena taken into account. v TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER ONE: Modernization, Value Change and Regime Transition……………………….1 The End of History and the "Damned" Dilemma…………………………………………1 Confucianism or Convergence?...........................................................................................5 I <3 China…………………………………………………………………………………7 No Postmaterialists in Foxholes?........................................................................................9 Is Postmaterialism Patriotic?.............................................................................................10 Chapter Outlines…………………………………………………………………………11 CHAPTER TWO: Postmaterialism and its Discontents…………………………………….…...14 Postmodern Values and Democratization………………………………………………..14 Postmaterialism: The Silent Revolution…………………………………………………16 Postmaterialism: It’s the Economy, Stupid………………………………………………19 Postmaterialism: The Dilemma of Constrained Choice………………………………….22 Question-order Effects…………………………………………………………………...24 Postmaterialism, Authoritarianism and Traditionalism………………………………….25 Postmaterialism, Nationalism and Patriotism……………………………………………33 Inglehart’s Two Revolutions……………………………………………………………..36 Summary of Findings…………………………………………………………………….39 CHAPTER THREE: Is Postmaterialism Patriotic?.......................................................................44 Postmaterialism and Authoritarianism Revisited………………………………………...45 From Authoritarianism to an Authoritarian Dynamic…………………………………...45 vi (Post-)materialism, Authoritarianism and Threat………………………………………..49 No Libertarians in Foxholes?.............................................................................................56 Postmaterialism, National Threat and National Attachment…………………………….57 National Attachment……………………………………………………………………..60 "The Nationalist Dynamic"………………………………………………………………63 Statement of Hypotheses…………………………………………………………………65 Hypotheses - National Threat and Measured Postmaterialism…………………………..65 Hypotheses - National Assurance and Measured Postmaterialism……………………...70 Hypotheses - Interactive Effects…………………………………………………………72 Hypothesis Testing……………………………………………………………………….73 CHAPTER FOUR: Chinese Nationalism and National Threat………………………………….75 Modern Chinese Nationalism……………………………………………………………77 Chinese Nationalism and National Threat……………………………………………….80 The Chinese University Students’ Values Surveys – Preliminary Phase………………..85 Experimental Treatment Pre-testing……………………………………………………..90 CHAPTER FIVE: No Postmaterialists in Foxholes – Results from the 2010 Chinese University Students’ Values Survey………………………………………………………………………..101 The 2010 Chinese University Students' Values Survey………………………………...101 CUSVS Phase One: Postmaterialism under National Threat…………………………..102 National Threat: Order & Stability vs. Freedom & Enfranchisement…………106 National Threat: Defense & Growth vs. Participation & Aesthetics…………..111 National Threat, Authoritarianism and National Attachment………………….114 CUSVS Phase Two: Postmaterialism under National Assurance……………………...121 vii National Assurance: Order & Stability vs. Freedom & Enfranchisement……122 National Assurance: Defense & Growth vs. Participation & Aesthetics……..125 National Assurance, Authoritarianism and National Attachment…………….129 Discussion……………………………………………………………………………...132 CHAPTER SIX: Conclusions………………………………………………………………….140 The Dilemma Revisited………………………………………………………………..140 It’s the Economy, Stupid(?)……………………………………………………………140 No Postmaterialist is an Island…………………………………………………………141 Implications for Postmaterialist/Modernization Theory……………………………….141 Implications for the “Damned Dilemma”………………………………………………144 Implications for the People’s Republic of China……………………………………….149 Appendix I – 2010 Chinese University Students’ Values Survey Questionnaire, Item Descriptions and Experimental Treatments…………………………………………………….154 Appendix II – CUSVS Phase One: Additional Tables…………………………………………196 Appendix III – CUSVS Phase Two: Additional Tables………………………………………...203 Bibliography……………………………………………………………………………………210 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 4.1 – Ranking of candidate treatments by respondents’ angered (愤怒) ratings………….91 Table 4.2 – Ranking of candidate treatments by respondents’ threatened (威胁) ratings……….93 Table 4.3 – Ranking of candidate treatments by respondents’ proud (骄傲/自豪) ratings……...94 Table 4.4 – Ranking of candidate treatments by respondents’ happy/satisfied (高兴/满意) ratings…………………………………………………………………………………………….96 Table 4.5 –Ranking of candidate treatments by respondents’ surprised/shocked ( 震惊) ratings…………………………………………………………………………………………….97 Table 5.1 – Differences in measured postmaterialism, control and national threat treatment groups (CUSVS Phase One)……………………………………………………………………103 Table 5.3 – Original 4-item battery pooled 1st-choice and 2nd-choice priorities, control and national threat treatment groups (CUSVS Phase One)…………………………………………107 Table 5.3a – Original 4-item battery 1st-choice and 2nd-choice priorities, control and national threat treatment groups (CUSVS Phase One)…………………………………………………..107 Table 5.3b – Original 4-item battery 2nd-choice priorities for respondents choosing “maintaining order” as 1st-choice priority, control and national threat treatment groups (CUSVS Phase One)……………………………………………………………………………………………..109 Table 5.4 – “Country aims” 4-item values battery pooled 1st-choice and 2nd-choice priorities, control and national threat treatment groups (CUSVS Phase One)…………………………….112 Table 5.4a – “Country aims” 4-item battery 1st-choice and 2nd-choice priorities, control and national threat treatment groups (CUSVS Phase One)…………………………………………113 ix Table 5.4b – “Country aims” 4-item battery 2nd-choice priorities for respondents choosing “order” as 1st-choice priority, control and national threat treatment groups (CUSVS Phase One)……………………………………………………………………………………………..114 Table