Assessing[Title] data poor resources: developing a management strategy for byproduct species in the Northern Prawn Fishery FRDC Project 2006/008 Final Report 31 January 2010 David A. Milton, Gary C. Fry, Petra Kuhnert, Mark Tonks, Shijie Zhou and Min Zhu Title Assessing data poor resources: developing a management strategy for byproduct species in the Northern Prawn Fishery / David Milton ... [et al.]. ISBN: 9781921424519 (hbk.) Notes: Bibliography. Subjects: Northern Prawn Fishery (Australia) Shrimp fisheries—Australia, Northern—Management. Fish stock assessment—Australia, Northern. Other Authors/Contributors: Fry, G. C., Tonks, M. Zhou, S. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research. Kuhnert, P., Zhu, M. CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences Fisheries Research and Development Corporation (Australia) Dewey Number 333.95558 Enquiries should be addressed to: Dr D. A. Milton CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research PO Box 120, Cleveland Qld 4163 Ph: 07 3826 7241 Fax: 07 3826 7222 [email protected] Distribution list AFMA NPF manager 2 FRDC 5 NORMAC 2 CSIRO MAR Librarian 1 National Library 1 QFRAB 1 Copyright and Disclaimer © 2010 CSIRO and FRDC. To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO and FRDC. Important Disclaimer CSIRO and FRDC advise that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO and FRDC (including their employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. CONTENTS 1. NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY ......................................................................... 11 OUTCOMES ..................................................................................................................... 12 2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................. 16 3. BACKGROUND................................................................................................ 17 4. NEED................................................................................................................ 18 5. OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................... 19 6. DESCRIPTION OF BYPRODUCT IN THE NORTHERN PRAWN FISHERY .... 20 6.1 Abstract................................................................................................................... 20 6.2 Data ........................................................................................................................ 20 6.3 Species composition............................................................................................... 20 6.4 Discussion............................................................................................................... 25 7. LIFE HISTORY OF BYPRODUCT SPECIES IN RELATION TO MANAGEMENT OF THE NORTHERN PRAWN FISHERY............................... 27 7.1 Abstract................................................................................................................... 27 7.2 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 27 7.3 Methods and material ............................................................................................. 28 7.4 Results.................................................................................................................... 31 7.5 Discussion............................................................................................................... 43 8. FACTORS AFFECTING THE DISTRIBUTION AND ABUNDANCE OF BYPRODUCT SPECIES IN THE NORTHERN PRAWN FISHERY ................... 47 8.1 Abstract................................................................................................................... 47 8.2 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 48 8.3 Methods and materials ........................................................................................... 49 8.4 Results.................................................................................................................... 50 8.5 Discussion............................................................................................................... 93 8.6 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 97 9. PREDICTING SPECIES COMPOSITION OF BYPRODUCT IN NPF LOGBOOK RECORDS..................................................................................... 99 9.1 Abstract................................................................................................................... 99 9.2 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 99 9.3 Methods and materials ......................................................................................... 101 9.4 Results.................................................................................................................. 111 9.5 Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 137 10. ESTIMATING THE ACCEPTABLE BIOLOGICAL CATCH OF BYPRODUCT IN THE NORTHERN PRAWN FISHERY......................................................... 138 10.1 Abstract................................................................................................................. 138 10.2 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 138 10.3 Methods ................................................................................................................ 139 10.4 Results .................................................................................................................. 141 10.5 Evaluation of ABC as a management tool ............................................................ 145 11. MANAGEMENT SCENARIO EVALUATION FOR BUGS OF THE NORTHERN PRAWN FISHERY......................................................................148 11.1 Abstract................................................................................................................. 148 11.2 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 148 11.3 BBN Software........................................................................................................ 150 11.4 Workshop and Stakeholder Interaction................................................................. 151 11.5 BBN Framework.................................................................................................... 154 11.6 Bayesian belief network components ................................................................... 156 11.7 Investigation of scenarios ..................................................................................... 175 11.8 Discussion............................................................................................................. 176 12. BENEFITS AND ADOPTION...........................................................................181 13. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT............................................................................183 14. PLANNED OUTCOMES..................................................................................184 15. CONCLUSIONS ..............................................................................................187 16. REFERENCES ................................................................................................190 APPENDIX A — INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY........................................................199 APPENDIX B – PROJECT STAFF ...........................................................................200 APPENDIX C – BBN PRIOR AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY CONSTRUCTION (CHAPTER 11)...................................................................201 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 6.1. The total reported landings of byproduct in the Northern Prawn Fishery since logbook records became compulsory in 1998. ............................................................... 21 Figure 6.2. Species composition of the byproduct recorded in the NPF logbooks in (a) 1998 and (b) 2007.................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 6.3. Trends in the reported landings of squid, bugs and mud scallops in the NPF since 1998....................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 6.4. Trends in annual landings of fish byproduct (Mixed fish and Reef fish) and Cuttlefish ( Sepia species) in the NPF since 1998........................................................... 24 Figure 6.5. The