Dean A. Richard Newton u Cumulative price-performance advances in technologies are bringing ICT within reach of the global poor u Emergence of successful business models has spurred commercial interest in these unconventional but large markets u Many successful pilot applications have demonstrated the positive impact of ICT on global sustainability and quality-of-life uAnd many of the very best ICT researchers from throughout the world are passionate about this challenge! Dean Richard Newton [email protected] Page 1 BREWER’S CONJECTURE: Providing traditional enabling infrastructure, like building out roads, rail, the electrical grid and providing piped water is very expensive and can only really be economically justified for high density, relatively affluent communities. Network infrastructure, on the other hand, is inexpensive enough to deploy economically to rural areas and can be used to build the economic base that then justifies investing in roads, rail, electricity and water grids later. You are here Source: Eric Brewer Dean Richard Newton [email protected] Page 2 u Very Low Cost, Operates Off the Power Grid, Designed for Intermittent Connectivity, Supports Low Literacy and Multiple Languages, Reliable in Extreme Environments, Supports Shared Access, Private and Secure uMust support telephony (synchronous and asynchronous) & data communication u Must support sensor networks (potentially millions of sensors/application) Dean Richard Newton [email protected] Page 3 u Online Auctions u Mega-Player Online Games u Simple Telecommunications uBlogs, Friendster, Livejournal, Tribe.net u Time-Sensitive “Valuable” Data u SMS to MMS++ to Multimedia Calls uDistributed Collaborative Environments u Business Relationships & Negotiation Activity Hours Gbytes u 50 Gbytes/household Telephone 12 0.35 TV-Movies 20 35.00 u 100-1000 households 100-1000 households Radio 10 0.29 served per basestation Recorded Music 40 2.30 Newspaper 4 0.28 u Would require 5-50 Books 30 2.10 TBytes per basestation Magazines 4 0.32 Video games 5.00 Internet 5.00 TOTAL 50 GBytes Dean Richard Newton [email protected] Page 4 August 2001 February 2003 Source: Professors David Culler and Kris Pister Dean Richard Newton [email protected] Page 5 Silicon & Moore’s Law Organic Nanotechnologies Semiconductors Quantum Biotechnologies Computing Electronics Displays High-Confidence Augmented Sensors Systems & Software Cognition Other Multimedia End-to-End Support Reliability MEMS Societal-Scale Storage Optical Voice Synthesis Information Systems Privacy & Networks & Recognition (SIS) Security Semiconductor Memory Satellites Memory & Networks & Storage Magnetic Wireless Communication Energy Storage Networks & Power Powerline Molecular Networks Wind Energy Heat Engines Storage Solar Cells Batteries Nuclear Fuel Cells Mechanical (MEMS) Energy Human Power Dean Richard Newton [email protected] Page 6 Data Data Internet Center Data Center Center Proxies, Basestations cell Devices or sensors “disconnected” Source: Eric Brewer uBest place to store persistent data v(device is second best) vCan justify backup power, networking, physical security uCheapest source of storage/computer per user v100-1000x less expensive than a personal device (!) vFactors: shared resources, administration cost, raw costs (power, disks, CPUs) uNeed at least two for disaster tolerance uPlan about 3 in urban centers (for one region) Source: Eric Brewer Dean Richard Newton [email protected] Page 7 u The key enabler… distribution for information. u Focus on wireless (e.g. IEEE 802.11, 802.16) vVastly cheaper to deploy vWide range of options u Packets of data allow efficient use of media v“multiplexing” (sharing) of channels u IP = “Internet Protocol” vGlobal names for every device vWay to route packets to names Source: Eric Brewer u Bandwidth = data/sec v Modem = 56 kilobits/sec v DSL = 384 kilobits/sec v IEEE 802.16 WiMAX = >75 megabits/sec per “sector” (~200 DSLs) l Limited only by available spectrum u Latency = transmission delay in seconds v Optical Internet = milliseconds l Berkeley-CMU: 44ms minimum RT time (actual ~88ms) l Berkeley-Bangalore: 200ms minimum RT time (actual ~0.75sec) v Satellite = ¼ second per hop u Power should be mostly tied to transmission v Double distance Þ Quadruple power v Sequence of short hops usually lower power (but higher latency) Source: Eric Brewer Dean Richard Newton [email protected] Page 8 u Range costs power (squared) u Long distances best covered with directional antennas v 10x difference in range for low cost v “Point-to-point” links v IEEE 802.16 can be used over 50km at reasonable cost u User density matters: v Range also limited by total users v Urban areas thus use short-range wireless v Rural areas need long-range, high capacity links u Ideal architecture assumes islands of coverage (with point-to-point wireless) v Islands are the dense areas (e.g. villages) Source: Eric Brewer u The telephone system was developed when memory and storage was expensive u Semi-interactive, but potentially much less expensive… u Savings: v No need for dedicated resources v Can “store-and-forward” data (like real mail) v Can hide problems (e.g. power out) by waiting or redundancy u Examples: voice messaging, SMS/MMS, correspondence classes, medical diagnosis (non-emergency), coordinating money transfers, e-commerce (e.g. catalogs), e-mail Dean Richard Newton [email protected] Page 9 u Develop standard chip family for human application Þ $1-7 per chip v Processor, memory, radio; network, speech, and display support u Develop standard chip family for sensor application Þ$1-0.01 per chip v Processor, radio, power management, network support, integrated GPS option v Low-power version < 200 microwatts uNovel low-cost organic semiconductors for flexible displays and inexpensive circuits v 10-50x cheaper, ultimately more robust Support 100 simultaneous feeds at > 1Mbps each u 100M logic gate equivalent u 1 Gbyte Memory u 200 Gbytes Disk u Battery u Silicon Solar Cells (1.5m2) u Mechanical Structure u Cost US $750 u Dissipate 250W at full load Dean Richard Newton [email protected] Page 10 new Dea n t on R i @ c h co a r e d . be N ew r k e t on l e y . edu US Dollars per MByte Areal Density (Mbytes/in2) Y Y ear ear Y Y e e ar ar S S S S o o o o u u u u r r r r ce: ce: ce: ce: I I I I BM BM BM BM Page 11 There is no semiconductor silicon in most things around us …but there ARE printed laminates and coatings Courtesy: Campbell’s Soup, Behr Paints Source: Vivek Subramanian No lithography No vacuum processing Reduced abatement costs Cheap substrate handling Reduced packaging costs Source: Vivek Subramanian Dean Richard Newton [email protected] Page 12 Support 100 simultaneous feeds at > 1Mbps each u 100M logic gate equivalent u 1 Gbyte Memory u 200 Gbytes Disk u Battery u Silicon Solar Cells (1.5m2) u Mechanical Structure u Cost US $750 u Dissipate 250W at full load Support 200 simultaneous feeds at > 2Mbps each u 300M logic gate equivalent u 10 Gbyte Memory u 10,000 Gbytes Disk u Battery u Silicon Solar Cells (1m2) u Mechanical Structure u Cost US $500 u Dissipate 150W at full load Dean Richard Newton [email protected] Page 13 50 s t t a w 40 a r e T 4 30 1 f o e 20 g a t n e 10 c r e P 0 il l s n s c l O oa a o s ri a G si a t rm C u m ec e /F io el th n B o o o r e si yd G s H d Fi in W r/ la o Data from International Energy Agency S Source: Prof. Richard Smalley Dean Richard Newton [email protected] Page 14 s t 50 t a w a r 40 e T 0 6 - 30 0 3 f o 20 e g a t n 10 e c r e P 0 il l s n s c l O oa a o s ri a G si a t m C u m ec er /F io el h n o t o B r eo si yd G s H d Fi in W r/ la o S Source: Prof. Richard Smalley Dean Richard Newton [email protected] Page 15 Exciton Diffusion Length ITO 20 nm P3HT h+ e- S n Polymer Al CdSe Nanorods Peng, X. G.; Manna, L.; Yang, W. D.; Wickham, J.; Scher, E. Kadavanich, A. P. Alivisatos, Nature 2000, 404, 59-61. Source: Prof. Paul Alivisatos v Low end silicon tandem cells, 12% power efficiency v High end multi-band gap tandems 34% v Key considerations: vThermalizationto band edge vProcessing methods AM 1.5 Efficiency Power Conversion: 1.7% Short Circuit Current: 5.8 mA/cm2 Fill Factor: 0.42 Voc : 0.67 V Source: Prof. Paul Alivisatos Dean Richard Newton [email protected] Page 16 u Funding Agencies: International Organizations, National Governments, and Foundations v Support research, education, the development and maintenance of test-beds, and community-building activities u Industry v Treat the developing world as a legitimate and important market v Launch internal research and development efforts (like HP Labs India) v Partner with academia to develop and commercialize promising university research uNGOs v Experiment with a variety of ICT applications for sustainable development v Support the implementation of a Technology “Peace Corps” for the developing world uUniversities: ICT researchers, sociologists, business, v Perform long-term, high-risk research and development for the developing world that may lead to order of magnitude improvements in accessibility v Perform rigorous and independent evaluation of past and ongoing efforts v Can a young faculty member be tenured working on basic research inspired by major challenges for the developing world? Medical informatics is here to stay, how about Development informatics? Dean Richard Newton [email protected] Page 17 Working together, we must establish: u An active, global research and development community