APRIL 2018 Hybrid CoE Working Paper 2 From Nudge to Novichok: The response to the Skripal nerve agent attack holds lessons for countering hybrid threats SIR DAVID OMAND Hybrid CoE Hybrid CoE Working Paper 2 From Nudge to Novichok: The response to the Skripal nerve agent attack holds lessons for countering hybrid threats Summary The attempted murder of former Russian of over 120 identified Russian intelligence military intelligence officer and agent of officers. the British Secret Service, Sergei Skripal, and his daughter Yulia using a military Vladimir Putin and Russian officials were grade nerve agent known as a novichok quick to deny any involvement. A Russian is an extreme manifestation of an ‘active state media and Internet propaganda measure’ of a type for which the Russian counter-attack quickly followed on familiar state has been responsible in the past. The lines, including injecting ‘fake news’ stories combination of the known Russian associa- into conventional and social media to dis- tion with the development of the novichok tract and confuse. The pattern is a familiar nerve agent, Russia’s likely motive (as one from the way Moscow has responded stated publicly) to punish those the Russian to other accusations, such as the shooting state regards as traitors, and the fact that down of the MH17 airliner over Ukraine, a poisoning of a former FSB defector using deploying denials, counter-accusations, and radioactive Polonium 210 had previously ‘alternative facts’ to promote conspiracy been carried out in the UK in 2006 led theories in order to leave the impression not just the British government but the that there is no truth that can be found. US and other NATO allies and EU mem- In the Skripal case the Russian authorities ber states to declare publicly that there also showed themselves able quickly to is no alternative conclusion other than adapt their main lines of counter-attack to that the Russian State was culpable for exploit loose use of language in UK media the attempted murder of the Skripals and interviews, illustrating the extreme care for using an internationally banned nerve needed in any public statement during such agent to do so. propaganda battles. There is little evidence, however, that the Russian propaganda tac- That unprecedented response from dem- tics have worked with Western politicians ocratic nations around the world was fol- and publics, largely due to the international lowed by actions designed both to express NATO/EU solidarity shown through the solidarity with the UK and to hinder the ac- words and deeds of so many democratic na- tivities of the Russian intelligence agencies tions, encouraging journalists to expose the in their countries, including the expulsion nature of the Russian propaganda response. 2 From Nudge to Novichok ‘No plausible alternative explanation’ In her statement to Parliament in London This chemical analysis was later formally on 14 March 2018 ten days after the confirmed by independent laboratories attempted murder of Sergei Skripal and acting for the international Organisation his daughter Yulia in the ancient English for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons cathedral city of Salisbury, Prime Minister (OPCW). Theresa May expressed her horror and re- vulsion at the use of a nerve agent on Brit- ish soil. She informed Parliament that the substance used to poison the Skripals had Since its entry into force in 1997, been identified as an advanced fourth gen- the Chemical Weapons Convention eration nerve agent of a type developed by has become one of the pillars of the the Soviet Union and known by the term global non-proliferation regime. The novichok, designed to play havoc with the Convention prohibits the develop- central nervous system and inflict a linger- ment, transfer and use of chemical ing death. The Russian Ambassador in Lon- don had been summoned two days earlier weapons. States Parties to the Con- and given 36 hours to inform the UK if any vention take on a duty to uphold of the past stocks of this nerve agent had and enforce its fundamental tenets. somehow gone missing. The Prime Minis- States Parties commit not to develop, ter regretted that the deadline had passed produce or otherwise acquire, stock- without a response from the Kremlin. Rus- pile or retain chemical weapons, nor sia had provided no explanation as to how to transfer, directly or indirectly, this novichok nerve agent could have come chemical weapons to anyone. States to be used in Salisbury in the heart of rural Parties also undertake not to engage England. As the Prime Minister explained in any military preparations to use “There is no alternative conclusion other chemical weapons, nor to commit to than that the Russian State was culpable for the attempted murder of Sergei and assist, encourage or induce anyone to Yulia Skripal, which was an unlawful use of engage in prohibited activity. force by the Russian State against the UK”. The UK described this as an indiscriminate and reckless attack against the United Kingdom putting the lives of innocent civilians at risk, with the first police officer The NATO Council agreed “... with the giving aid on the scene having to be hospi- United Kingdom government’s assess- talised and 39 civilians having had to seek ment that it is highly likely that the Russian urgent medical treatment. Federation is responsible and that there is no plausible alternative explanation... Later that day, the UK confirmed to the Allies expressed deep concern at the first NATO Council in Brussels that there had offensive use of a nerve agent on Alliance been a positive and certain identification territory since NATO’s foundation. Allies by scientists at the Porton Down defence expressed solidarity with the UK, offered research establishment of the chemical their support in the conduct of the ongoing agent used as part of the novichok group investigation. Allies agreed that the attack of military grade nerve agents, developed was a clear breach of international norms by the Soviet Union but banned under and agreements”. A few days later Jens the Chemical Weapons Convention. Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary General, 3 From Nudge to Novichok declared to the world’s media “Russia’s That unprecedented public response response so far has demonstrated a clear from the UK’s allies and partners was disregard for international peace and followed by actions designed both to security, we continue to call on Russia to express solidarity with the UK and to provide complete disclosure of the novi- hinder the activities of the Russian in- chok programme to the Organisation for telligence agencies in their countries. the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. And we welcome the UK’s co-operation The UK government announced on 14 with the OPCW in the investigation of this March that it would expel 23 Russian horrendous attack.” diplomats identified as undeclared in- telligence officers, would propose new International collective action legislative powers to harden defences against Hostile State Activity and would ensure those seeking to carry out such activity could not enter the UK, and would On 22 March the leaders of the UK, suspend all planned high-level contacts France and Germany met to be updated by between the UK and Russia. the UK on the basis of its attribution of the attack to the Russian state: its knowledge This step was quickly followed by action of previous production by Russia of this against Russian intelligence officers taken advanced nerve agent; Russia’s record of by Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, Den- conducting state-sponsored assassina- mark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, tions; and the UK’s assessment that Russia Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, views some defectors as legitimate targets Lithuania, Luxemberg, Netherland, Poland, for assassinations. At the end of the meet- Romania, Spain and Sweden. Non-EU ing the three leaders reaffirmed that there countries joined in with expulsions from is no plausible explanation other than that Albania, Australia, Canada, Macedonia, the Russian state was responsible. That Moldova, Montenegro, Norway and conclusion was echoed later that day by all Ukraine, and not least the United States EU nations in their declaration: that would expel no less than 60 Russian diplomats (including 12 posted in the new “The European Council condemns York with the United Nations) and shutter in the strongest possible terms the the Russian Consulate in Seattle. NATO recent attack in Salisbury, expresses announced a cut in the size of its Russian its deepest sympathies to all whose mission by a third, removing accreditation lives have been threatened and lends from seven Russian staff and rejecting its support to the ongoing inves- three other pending applications. tigation. It agrees with the United Kingdom government’s assessment The NATO secretary general an- that it is highly likely that the Rus- nounced that the permanent size of sian Federation is responsible and the Russian mission to NATO would that there is no plausible alternative be cut from 30 to 20 people, adding explanation. We stand in unqualified that the step was intended as “a clear solidarity with the United Kingdom and very strong message that there in the face of this grave challenge to was a cost to Russia’s reckless our shared security.” actions” 4 From Nudge to Novichok All these countries took the risk of kicking the lawless and reckless behaviour out Russian diplomats and others connect- over many years of the Russian state ed to Russian intelligence whose presence under President Putin. In other they deemed to be no longer conducive words, years of vexation and provo- to the public good. A 150 in total from 30 cation by Russia had worn the col- countries making the response the biggest lective patience to breaking point, collective expulsion of alleged Russian intelligence officers in history.