COVID19 Situation Report Data & Analytics Report Date: Wednesday 15 th July 2020 Mustafa Kamara, Senior Public Health Programme Officer Meradin Peachey, Consultant in Public Health [email protected] 1 Contents ▪ Local COVID19 Detected Cases ▪ Local COVID19 Detection Rates ▪ Age Standardised Death Rates – Local Comparisons ▪ Weekly Death Rates – All Settings ▪ Weekly Death Rates – Care Homes only ▪ Local COVID19 Cumulative Deaths reported by NHS Trust ▪ Local Contact Tracing updates [PHE Data] ▪ Regional Trend: COVID Outbreaks by setting [PHE Data] ▪ National COVID19 Figures ▪ National & Regional COVID19 Trends ▪ Global Comparison – Total COVID19 Deaths 2 Local COVID19 Detected Cases [DHSC Data] • The methodology for reporting positive cases was recently • As of Tuesday 14th July 2020, 598 Wokingham • It is expected that the true number of positive changed by the government. This change came into effect residents have tested positive for COVID19 COVID19 cases in Wokingham is higher than nd on the 2 July 2020. (lab-confirmed cases) since the beginning of the lab confirmed cases detected by PHE, with the outbreak. many asymptomatic residents going un- • Numbers of lab-confirmed positive cases throughout this report now include those identified by testing diagnosed. in all settings: (pillar 1 and 2) ➢ 3,278 COVID19 cases have been detected across Berkshire in total. • This explains the recent spike in reported cases for ➢ The Borough of Reading has reported Wokingham (458 cumulative cases reported two weeks the highest number of cases in ago) Berkshire: 774. • For more information on central government’s methodology for testing & reporting: Click Here 598 cases 774 cases among residents of among residents of Wokingham Reading 475 cases 381 cases among residents of among residents of West Berkshire Bracknell Forest 406 cases 644 cases among residents of among residents of Windsor & Maidenhead Slough Map: Outline of 6 Upper Tier Local Authorities in Berkshire 3 Local COVID19 Detection rates [PHE Data] • The rate of newly detected COVID19 cases in • Lowest incidence: North East Lincolnshire – 130 Wokingham is slowing down. per 100,000 • Highest incidence: Leicester – 1,226 per 100,000 • Since the beginning of the outbreak, the total • National incidence: England – 447 per 100,000 COVID19 cases detected in Wokingham stands COVID19 incidence rates: at 356 cases per 100,000 people. This number Wokingham compared to neighbouring boroughs N.B. rates below are not age-standardised is lower than the national average. 500 450 New lab-confirmed cases of COVID19 detected in Wokingham each day 400 Chart below includes Pillar 1 & 2 test results 350 30 300 250 25 200 150 20 100 Total Lab Confirmed Cases Total 50 15 0 Expressed as a rate per 100,000 personsper 100,000rate aas Expressed Reading Slough Wokingham Bracknell West Windsor and England 10 Forest Berkshire Maidenhead 5 0 Source: Public Health England, ONS Mid-year population estimates 4 Age Standardised Death Rates – Local Comparison [ONS Data] Latest data available for this analysis: Deaths occurring between 1 March and 31 May 2020 Next update for this analysis: Yet to be announced by ONS • Lowest COVID19 Death Rate in the country : North Lincolnshire - 19 per 100,000 • Comparing rates between multiple geographical areas can be made more-reliable when taking into account the differences in age • Highest COVID19 Death Rate in the country : structures of the populations that live in them. Brent - 211 per 100,000 • This is particularly true if the characteristic being compared varies by age; which is the case for deaths caused by COVID19 as older groups • National COVID19 Death Rate : are more at risk of dying. England - 82 per 100,000 • Age standardised death rates are used to make better comparisons, because they account for the differences in the age structure of the Age standardised Death Rates: populations being compared. Wokingham compared to neighbouring boroughs All Deaths registered between: 1st March & 31st May 2020 • For this particular analysis, all populations were mathematically adjusted to have the same age structure as a reference population, known as the 450 404 399 ‘standard population’. In this way, all groups were given the same age 400 distribution so that a more representative picture of COVID19 deaths 350 across neighbouring boroughs is provided. 315 284 300 274 268 264 250 Results 200 • All things being equal, Wokingham reported a similar rate (84 per 150 140 100,000 persons) of COVID19 related deaths in comparison to West 124 st 100 87 84 82 Berks, Windsor & Maidenhead and Bracknell (between 1 March and 77 68 Death Rate (per 100,000)Death(perRate st 31 May). 50 0 • Reading saw the highest rate of COVID19 related deaths in Berkshire Reading Slough Wokingham West Windsor and Bracknell England (between 1st March and 31st May). Berkshire Maidenhead Forest Death Rate (All Causes) Death Rate (Covid related) • The age-standardised death rate for Wokingham is also similar to the national average. Source: ONS, 2020 5 Weekly Death Rates – All Settings [ONS Data] Latest data available for this analysis: Deaths occurring up to 3rd July 2020 Next update for this analysis: 21st July 2020 • The charts below show all deaths caused by COVID-19 and/or other causes (all-cause mortality) across all settings. • Looking at all-cause mortality can help us to measure the impact of COVID19: ➢ By comparing current (all-cause) death rates against expected rates (average weekly deaths reported across previous 5 years) we can estimate excess deaths caused by COVID. • As of 3rd July, excess weekly deaths in Wokingham appear to be similar to expected deaths. This is also the case for neighbouring boroughs. Mortality in Wokingham per 100,000 population Mortality in Bracknell Forest per 100,000 population Mortality in Slough per 100,000 population (2020 compared to 2015-19 average) (2020 compared to 2015-19 average) (2020 compared to 2015-19 average) 60 60 60 50 50 50 40 40 40 30 30 30 20 20 20 Rate per 100,000 pop 100,000 per Rate pop 100,000 per Rate Rate per 100,000 pop 100,000 per Rate 10 10 10 0 0 0 Weekly Death Rate for 2020 (All Causes) Av. weekly deaths in 2015-19 (all causes) Weekly Death Rate for 2020 (All Causes) Av. weekly deaths in 2015-19 (all causes) Weekly Death Rate for 2020 (All Causes) Av. weekly deaths in 2015-19 (all causes) Mortality in Reading per 100,000 population Mortality in West Berkshire per 100,000 population Mortality in Windsor and Maidenhead per 100,000 population (2020 compared to 2015-19 average) (2020 compared to 2015-19 average) (2020 compared to 2015-19 average) 60 60 60 50 50 50 40 40 40 30 30 30 20 20 20 Rate per 100,000 pop 100,000 per Rate pop 100,000 per Rate Rate per 100,000 pop 100,000 per Rate 10 10 10 0 0 0 Weekly Death Rate for 2020 (All Causes) Av. weekly deaths in 2015-19 (all causes) Weekly Death Rate for 2020 (All Causes) Av. weekly deaths in 2015-19 (all causes) Weekly Death Rate for 2020 (All Causes) Av. weekly deaths in 2015-19 (all causes) Weekly Death Rates – Care Homes [Civil Registrations Data] Historical death rates used in this analysis are not publicly available. Weekly All-cause mortality data (by setting) was sourced from the Civil Registrations Database, which is managed by the Berkshire shared data team. • The chart below shows deaths caused by COVID-19 and/or other causes (all-cause mortality) within Care Homes only. • As of week 27 (week ending 3rd July 2020) the care home death rate in Wokingham’s appears to be marginally similar to the expected death rate. This is also the case for neighbouring boroughs. • Spikes in care home death rates appear to have occurred from week 15 onwards (6th April 2020) across Berkshire. All cause mortality in Wokingham care homes All cause mortality in Bracknell care homes All cause mortality in Slough care homes 2020 compared to average rate for 2015-19 2020 compared to average rate for 2015-19 2020 compared to average rate for 2015-19 35 35 35 30 30 30 25 25 25 20 20 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Death Rate per 1,000 Care Home BedsCare Home1,000DeathperRate Death Rate per 1,000 Care Home Beds Care Home 1,000 per Rate Death Death Rate per 1,000 Care Home BedsCare Home1,000DeathperRate Week Number Week Number Week Number All cause mortality in Reading care homes All cause mortality in West Berkshire care homes All cause mortality in Windsor & Maidenhead care homes 2020 compared to average rate for 2015-19 2020 compared to average rate for 2015-19 2020 compared to average rate for 2015-19 35 35 35 30 30 30 25 25 25 20 20 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Death Rate per 1,000 Care Home BedsCare Home1,000DeathperRate Death Rate per 1,000 Care Home BedsCare Home1,000DeathperRate Week Number BedsCare Home1,000DeathperRate Week Number Week Number 7 Local COVID19 Deaths reported by NHS Trust [NHSE Data] • Daily COVID19 deaths are published by NHS • Highest mortality rate: London North West University trusts; where each trust has a different number Healthcare NHS Trust - 547 deaths per 1,000 beds.