Identification and implementation of adaptation response to Climate Change impact for Conservation and Sustainable use of agro-biodiversity in arid and semi-arid ecosystems of South Caucasus Ecosystem Assessment Report Baku, 2012 List of abbreviations ANAS Azerbaijan National Academy of Science EU European Union ECHAM 4 European Center HAMburg 4 IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change GIZ German International Cooperation GIS Geographical Information System GDP Gross Domestic Product GFDL Global Fluid Dynamics Model MENR Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources PRECIS Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies REC Regional Environmental Center UN United Nations UNFCCC UN Framework Convention on Climate Change WB World Bank Table of contents List of abbreviations ............................................................................................................................................ 2 Executive summary ............................................................................................................................................. 6 I. Introduction...................................................................................................................................................... 7 II. General ecological and socio-economic description of selected regions ....................................................... 8 2.1. Agsu district .............................................................................................................................................. 8 2.1.1. General information .......................................................................................................................... 8 2.1.2. Climate .............................................................................................................................................. 8 2.1.3. Land cover ........................................................................................................................................ 9 2.1.4. Water resources and irrigation system .......................................................................................... 11 2.1.5. Socio-economical situation ............................................................................................................. 12 2.2. Shamakhi district .................................................................................................................................... 13 2.2.1. General information ........................................................................................................................ 13 2.2.2. Climate ............................................................................................................................................ 14 2.2.3. Land cover ...................................................................................................................................... 15 2.2.4. Water resources and irrigation system .......................................................................................... 16 2.2.5. Socio-economical situation ............................................................................................................. 16 2.3. Gobustan district .................................................................................................................................... 18 2.3.1. General information ........................................................................................................................ 18 2.3.2. Climate ............................................................................................................................................ 18 2.3.3. Land cover ...................................................................................................................................... 19 2.3.4. Water resources and irrigation system .......................................................................................... 20 2.3.5. Socio-economical situation ............................................................................................................. 20 III. Analysis of agricultural sector conditions and development ....................................................................... 22 3.1. Agsu district ............................................................................................................................................ 22 3.2. Shamakhi district .................................................................................................................................... 24 3.3. Gobustan district .................................................................................................................................... 26 IV. Review of current situation in agro-biodiversity and changes tendency .................................................... 28 4.1 The results of the inventory of the agricultural species spread in selected regions .............................. 28 4.2 Results of the inventory of the wild relatives of agricultural species and the analysis of the tendency of changes for the last 50 years .................................................................................................................... 61 4.3 Results of the pastures plants inventory and analysis of the tendency of the changes for the last 50 year ................................................................................................................................................................ 64 4.4 Major risks of the influence on agro-biodiversity and local species, including those facing the elimination risk. ............................................................................................................................................. 66 V. Current climate change and climate change scenario .................................................................................. 69 5.1 Assessing current change in climate elements ....................................................................................... 69 5.2 Future Climate Projections for 2020-2050. ............................................................................................. 73 5.2.1. Temperature change in 2020-2050 years ....................................................................................... 74 5.2.2. Change in rainfalls in 2020-2050 years ........................................................................................... 74 VI. Assessment of Ecosystems and agro-biodiversity vulnerability to climate change .................................... 76 6.1 Selection of indicators for assessment of vulnerability and detailed description .................................. 76 6.2 Assessment of ongoing climate change and possible influence on forecast climate change (2020-2050) to agro-biodiversity ....................................................................................................................................... 77 6.3 Calculation of vulnerability indices and selection of pilot regions.......................................................... 79 VII. Conclusions and Recommendations .......................................................................................................... 82 Agriculture and agro-biodiversity: ............................................................................................................ 82 Institutional gaps: ........................................................................................................................................ 83 Environmental knowledge and access to environmental information: ............................................... 83 VIII. List of references ...................................................................................................................................... 85 List of tables Table 1: Information on basic infrastructure of Agsu district ........................................................................... 12 Table 2: Labor, agricultural labor and average salary in Agsu district ............................................................. 13 Table 3: Information on basic infrastructure of Shamakhi district ................................................................... 17 Table 4: Labor, agricultural labor and average salary in Shamakhi district ..................................................... 18 Table 5: Information on basic infrastructure of Gobustan district ................................................................... 20 Table 6: Labor, agricultural labor and average salary in Gobustan district ..................................................... 21 Table 7: # of cattle and poultry in Agsu district (data of 2010) ......................................................................... 23 Table 8: # of cattle in Shamakhi district (data of 2010) .................................................................................... 25 Table 9: # of cattle and poultry in Gobustan district (data of 2010) ................................................................ 27 Table 10: Information on zoned agriculture plants (south-east part of Shamakhi district and lowland part of Gobustan district) .............................................................................................................................................. 28 Table 11: Information on second zoned agriculture plants (foothills and plain part of Aghsu district and south border of Shamakhi district) ..................................................................................................................