!" # $ " #$ # " " %" & " $ " # ' ' " " $ ( " " ' $")" "$' % &$"* " +$& ", * -$ ".$, &+ $ ' "$ !"#$ !"#$ ! " # $ !% ! & $ ' ' ($ ' # % %) %* % ' $ ' + " % & ' !# $, ( $ - . ! "- ( % . % % % % $ $ $ - - - - // $$$ 0 1"1"#23." 4& )*5/ +) 678%99:::& % ) - 2 ; ! * & < "- %0 - . = -%7>:? /- @7>:94& )*5/ +) "3 " & 7>:9 TRAFFIC FORECASTING FOR A NATIONAL HIGHWAY BY TRANSPORT DEMAND ELASTICITY METHOD: A Case Study For An Indian National Highway By Hrmanth M Kamplimath Assistant Professor Department of Civil Engineering Nirma University PREFACE With the recent thrust on improving and developing highways for boosting the national economy, the importance of Traffic Demand Forecasting (TDF) has increased significantly. Therefore, in order to improve the rationality of traffic forecast, proper estimation of traffic growth rate is of prime importance. In the present study, the complete process of traffic forecasting by transport demand elasticity method, its merits and demerits have been addressed and demonstrated through a case study. It is observed that with the constraints of availability of proper data and fluctuation of developing economy, the task of traffic growth estimation could be quite subjective and approximate. Different approaches and necessary considerations for improving the rationality of traffic growth rate have also been addressed in the study. In the present study an attempt was made to analyze the Origin and Destination data for passenger vehicles and goods vehicles by Roadside Interview method. The results of O-D studies are presented in the form of O-D matrices. The passenger and freight characteristics such as average trip length, frequency, purpose and trip influence were analyzed. Socio-economic data such as Per-capita income, Net State Domestic Product, population and data on vehicle registration were collected from statistical data sources. The relationship between annual growths of vehicles in percentage over a number of years is established. To determine elasticity values, regression analysis was carried out between socio-economic variables growth index and vehicle growth index. The elasticity values for the future years were projected based on the growth trend of vehicles. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my gratitude to many people who saw me through this book; to all those who provided support, read, wrote, offered comments, allowed me to quote their remarks and assisted in the editing and proofreading. First and foremost I would like to thank Prof. Varuna M, Mr. Vijay Kumar Sagar and Mr. Yashas Barghav for their constant guidance without which this book would have been unsuccessful. I also wish to express my gratitude to Dr. Paresh Patel, Head, Department of Civil Engineering and my colleagues at Nirma University for their continuous encouragement and support. Finally I would like to thank my wife, Madhushree and the rest of my family for their constant motivation. Last and not least: I beg forgiveness of all those who have been with me over the course of the years and whose names I have failed to mention. Hemanth Kamplimath iii CONTENTS Ǧͳ ͳ INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 General...................................................................................................................... 1 ϭ͘ϭ͘ϭZŽĂĚdƌĂŶƐƉŽƌƚ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ϭ ϭ͘ϭ͘ϮZŽĂĚEĞƚǁŽƌŬŝŶ/ŶĚŝĂ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘Ϯ ϭ͘ϭ͘ϯEĂƚŝŽŶĂů,ŝŐŚǁĂLJƐ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘Ϯ 1.2 Background .............................................................................................................. 4 1.3 Traffic forecasting methodologies .......................................................................... 5 ϭ͘ϯ͘ϭ&ŽƌĞĐĂƐƚďĂƐĞĚŽŶƉĂƐƚƚƌĞŶĚƐĂŶĚĞdžƚƌĂƉŽůĂƚŝŽŶ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ϱ ϭ͘ϯ͘ϮdžƚƌĂƉŽůĂƚŝŽŶĨƌŽŵWĂƐƚƚƌĞŶĚƐ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ϲ ϭ͘ϯ͘ϯĐŽŶŽŵĞƚƌŝĐDŽĚĞůƐ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ϴ ϭ͘ϯ͘ϰdƌĂǀĞůĚĞŵĂŶĚĨŽƌĞĐĂƐƚŝŶŐŵŽĚĞů͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ϴ 1.4 Limitation of Traffic forecasting ............................................................................ 9 1.5 Period of Forecasting ............................................................................................... 9 1.6 Asian Development Bank Guidelines on Traffic Forecast ................................. 10 ϭ͘ϲ͘ϭ'ĞŶĞƌĂů͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ϭϬ ϭ͘ϲ͘ϮsĞŚŝĐƵůĂƌ'ƌŽǁƚŚZĂƚĞ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ϭϬ ϭ͘ϵ͘ϯZĞĐŽŵŵĞŶĚĞĚ'ƌŽǁƚŚZĂƚĞ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ϭϭ 1.7 Demand Modelling a Review ................................................................................ 11 1.8 Estimating Future Road Traffic - Studies Conducted Abroad ......................... 14 1.9 Origin - Destination Studies .................................................................................. 14 ϭ͘ϵ͘ϭEĞĞĚĨŽƌKͲ^ƵƌǀĞLJ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ϭϰ ϭ͘ϵ͘ϮƉƉůŝĐĂƚŝŽŶŽĨKͲĂƚĂĨŽƌdƌŝƉ&ŽƌĞĐĂƐƚ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ϭϱ 1.10 Trip Length Frequency Studies .......................................................................... 16 1.11 Summary of the Literatures reviewed ............................................................... 17 1.12 Need for the Study ............................................................................................... 17 1.13 Objective and Scope of Work ............................................................................. 18 1.14 Traffic Forecasting Methodology ....................................................................... 18 1.15 Report Organization ............................................................................................ 19 Chapter-2 ...................................................................................................................... 20 TRAFFIC FORECASTING ± THEORY AND CONCEPTS ..................................... 20 iv 2.1Traffic Forecasting ................................................................................................. 20 Ϯ͘ϭ͘ϭ'ĞŶĞƌĂů͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ϮϬ Ϯ͘ϭ͘Ϯ&ŽƌĞĐĂƐƚŝŶŐ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ϮϬ Ϯ͘ϭ͘ϯEĞĞĚĨŽƌdƌĂĨĨŝĐ&ŽƌĞĐĂƐƚŝŶŐ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘Ϯϭ 2.2 Econometric Model ................................................................................................ 22 2.3 Regression Analysis ............................................................................................... 22 Ϯ͘ϯ͘ϭĞƐĐƌŝƉƚŝŽŶŽĨZĞŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶŶĂůLJƐŝƐ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘Ϯϯ 2.4 Elasticity Method ................................................................................................... 23 2.5 Factors influencing traffic growth ....................................................................... 25 2.6 Estimation of traffic growth rates by Transport Demand Elasticity Approach ....................................................................................................................................... 25 Chapter ± 3 ................................................................................................................... 27 TRAFFIC FORECASTING - METHODOLOGY ....................................................... 27 3.1 Methodology ........................................................................................................... 27 3.2 Reconnaissance Survey ......................................................................................... 29 3.3 Traffic Surveys ....................................................................................................... 29 ϯ͘ϯ͘ϭůĂƐƐŝĨŝĞĚdƌĂĨĨŝĐsŽůƵŵĞŽƵŶƚ^ƵƌǀĞLJ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘Ϯϵ ϯ͘ϯ͘ϮKƌŝŐŝŶʹĞƐƚŝŶĂƚŝŽŶΘŽŵŵŽĚŝƚLJDŽǀĞŵĞŶƚ^ƵƌǀĞLJƐ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ϯϬ