2008 State of Retail Real Estate Report MINNESOTA SHOPPING CENTER ASSOCIATION phone: 952-345-0452 8120 Penn Avenue South, Suite 464 fax: 952-888-0000 Bloomington, MN 55431 web: msca-online.com msca-online.com 2008 MSCA Research Committee A special thanks to: The data for the 2008 MSCA Retail Report shows vacancies and rental Maura Carland rates as of August 1, 2008. Property information was provided by members Andrew Chana, Marcus & Millichap of MSCA, as well as the MNCAR “Xceligent” database. Data contained in Andrea Christenson, Colliers Turley Martin Tucker this report is the property of the Minnesota Shopping Center Association David Daly, NorthMarq and may not be copied without prior consent. Tim Davis, Consolidated Photo Adam Fisher, MNCAR Demographic reporting solutions was provided by Claritas, the leader in Peter Grones, Cambridge Commercial Realty providing demographic reporting solutions. Claritas is your most accurate Sara Martin, NAI Welsh online source for U.S. demographics. Jim Mayland, Colliers Turley Martin Tucker Kelcey McKean, Colliers Turley Martin Tucker The 2008 MSCA Research Committee performed the statistical analysis. Dan Mossey, Kraus-Anderson Companies Marcus & Millichap Additional copies of this report are available by contacting the Minnesota MNCAR Shopping Center Association at (952) 345-0452. Tricia Pitchford, NorthMarq Holly Rome, Mall of America ©2008 Minnesota Shopping Center Association Ronn Thomas, NorthMarq 8120 Penn Avenue South, Suite 464 Molly Townsend, Colliers Turley Martin Tucker Bloomington, MN 55431 Leah Truax, NorthMarq John Tramm, Coldwell Banker Commercial Griffin Companies (952) 345-0452 Neal Young, Minnesota Department of Employment & Economic Development www.msca-online.com Table of Contents 1 Introduction . 2 Executive Summary . 3 Glossary of Definitions. 3 OPINION SECTION Development/Redevelopment Activity/Real Estate Trends . 4 New Retailers/Bankruptcies/Acquisitions/Mergers . 6 Investment Market . 7 Legislative . 7 Economic Climate . 9 2008 Gas Prices . 10 Residential Retail Growth. 12 Housing. 12 Light Rail Transit . 13 2007 STARRSM Awards Interior Design . 16 Design and Aesthetics . 16 Development Process . 16 Renovation/Remodel. 16 Redevelopment . 17 Mixed Use. 17 Individual Awards . 17 OVERVIEW OF TWIN CITIES PROPERTIES Market Size. 18 Vacancy . 19 Rental Rates. 20 CAM Expenses. 21 Real Estate Taxes . 21 Comparisons of All Expenses . 22 PROPERTY SECTION Super-Regional Centers . 24 Regional Centers & Property Listing of Regional Centers . 26 Community Centers & Property Listing of Community Centers . 28 Neighborhood Centers & Property Listing of Neighborhood Centers . 31 Minneapolis CBD & Property Listing of Minneapolis CBD. 38 Saint Paul CBD. 40 OUTSTATE SECTION Introduction to Outstate Properties . 41 Bemidji . 42 Brainerd/Baxter . 42 Duluth . 43 Mankato . 43 Hibbing. 44 North Branch/Cambridge . 45 Rochester. 45 Saint Cloud . 46 RETAILER PROFILES . 47 MSCA 2008 Leadership. 53 APPENDIX: Alphabetical Property Listing, by City . 54 MSCA 2008 Committees. 70 MSCA 2008 Corporate Sponsors . 72 MSCA Membership Benefits. 73 2 Introduction elcome to the 2008 MSCA Contained in these pages is Retail Real Estate Report! something for all industry players. A WThe members of the broker can get a snapshot of new Research Committee have worked retailers before a pitch, and a hard this year to produce a property manager or property comprehensive report that covers owner could compare his or her everything from the effect of rising center’s operating expenses to fuel prices to lists of shopping others’. We would like to express a center Common Area special thanks to the 2008 Research Maintenance (CAM), taxes and Committee—without their work, this rental rates. For the past 19 years, report would not be possible. We MSCA’s Retail Real Estate Report would also like to thank MNCAR has tracked Minnesota’s shopping and all data participants. We hope center market as it has expanded you will find a multitude of uses for and evolved. The information used this report. in the quantitative part of the Jen Helm report is generated by the Xceligent database through a Drew Johnson partnership between MSCA and 2008 MSCA Research Co-Chairs the Minnesota Commercial Association of Realtors (MNCAR), as well as input from a host of retail real estate experts. 2008 MSCA RESEARCH COMMITTEE MEMBERS Jack Appert, Kraus-Anderson Companies Jim Mayland, Colliers Turley Martin Tucker Eric Bjelland, NorthMarq Robb Miller, T.E. Miller Development John Dietrich, RLK Incorporated Ashley Moen, Hempel Nick Furia, Fredrikson & Byron, P.A. Doug Mortenson, Commercial Property Consultants Janet Goossens, Kraus-Anderson Companies Suzie Rettinger, Coldwell Banker Commercial Jennifer Helm, NorthMarq Griffin Companies Drew Johnson, United Properties David Stalsberg, Kraus-Anderson Companies Michelle Koeller, Integra Realty Resources Brenda Thomas, Doran Companies Jennifer Lenhart, Bayport Properties Ken Vinje, Kraus-Anderson Companies Joe Mahoney, H.J. Development, Inc. Executive Summary & Definitions 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY GLOSSARY OF he slowing of retail real estate On the legislative front, three DEFINITIONS momentum that began in 2007 controversial bills that will effect the Thas slowed still further in 2008, retail real estate industry were Property resulting in few new transactions passed and signed into law: the Classifications and negative absorption. The transportation bill and two Omnibus For the purpose of this economy was the focus of all Tax bills. The transportation bill only report, a shopping industry players as subprime became law when the governor’s center’s classification mortgage issues, rising fuel and veto was overridden. A portion of is based solely on commodity prices, weakening of the transportation bill secures square footage. the dollar, and rising funding for the planning and Central Business unemployment all contributed to expansion of Light Rail Transit (LRT). Districts (CBDs) are economic uncertainty on both a Trends in retail real estate continue evaluated by local and national level. In to be “green” building practices, location only. All Minnesota, the largest challenge even though other real estate statistical inferences owners and developers will face is products, such as office space, are are based on the filling their small-shop space, while initially more suitable for some of following definitions: the largest challenge for retailers the specific accreditation Super-Regional will be maintaining their sales in a programs. Center—800,000 down economy. Despite these Overall, the state of the 2008 retail square feet and up; reasons to be cautious, a few key real estate industry has been “wait enclosed centers retailers continue to be active, and and see”. Retailers, brokers, and new retail space will still be Regional Mall— developers will search for delivered to the market in 2008 and 400,000–799,999 opportunistic development but into 2009. square feet; enclosed carefully underwrite each deal, all centers In 2008, many companies the while waiting for the industry postponed or downsized their improvement likely to follow a Regional Center— developments; but a total of over recovering economy. 400,000 square feet 1.7 million square feet is under and up construction or will be delivered in Lifestyle/Open Air 2008. Hotels were active in 2008 as Center—400,000 shown by the Minneapolis Central square feet and up; Business District (CBD), which will nonenclosed centers deliver almost 1,100 rooms in 2008–early 2009. While Minnesota Community Center— saw new retailers arriving in 2008, 150,000–399,999 the number of stores closing or filing square feet Chapter 11 outpaced that activity. Neighborhood This trend paralleled the nation, Center— where soft goods retailers were 30,000–149,999 especially hard hit. The retail real square feet estate investment market also slowed considerably. Access to (CBD) Central debt, economic instability, pricing Business Districts of gaps, and alternate investments all Minneapolis and were factors. Saint Paul—regardless of square footage 4 Opinion Section Developers are set DEVELOPMENT/REDEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY/ to deliver 1.7 million REAL ESTATE TRENDS square feet of new s expected, 2008 Development activity is projected space in 2008, development activity is down to focus on renovations and which is down Ain comparison to last year, remodels, creating opportunities for roughly 8% from last and well off the yearly pace of owners with value-added or year. An additional retail square footage delivered in repositioning strategies. This, in turn, 2001–2005. Harder to quantify, is the is keeping properties fresh and 2.2 million square number of retail developments that alluring to both retailers and feet is in the have been announced but not consumers. While trying to adapt to pipeline, down 53% built. In the case of some projects, the new market conditions, more from the same time owners are breaking developments and more developers are choosing one year ago. into phases and only building what to build “green,” in an attempt to they have pre-leased. As an cut down on energy costs and increasing trend, retail attract new tenants. Retailers are development is tenant-driven and incorporating green practices into projects are being underwritten their buildings both as a result of more carefully by all stake holders: pressure from shareholders and for owners, tenants, lenders and operational savings. This trend will communities. continue to spread as energy prices New developments rise and tenants become more These trends are a result of the are becoming detail-oriented in their choosing of negative absorption and overall increasingly tenant- centers. increase in Community Centers driven, as the risk of since 2007. The overall economic New developments are becoming buying land on factors of falling consumer increasingly tenant-driven, as the speculation is confidence, higher gas and risk of buying land on speculation is beginning to commodity prices, credit crunch, beginning to outweigh the rewards. and decreasing residential values.