Coping with a Complex World: A Multi-Agent System on Authoritarians and Lying Governments Inge Slingerland Master’s thesis Human Machine Communication Department of Artificial Intelligence University of Groningen Groningen, The Netherlands August 2012 Supervisors: Prof. Dr. Rineke Verbrugge (Artificial Intelligence, University of Groningen) Dr. Tjeerd Andringa (Artificial Intelligence, University of Groningen) 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1. Problem description ........................................................................................................................... 5 1.2. Research Objectives ............................................................................................................................ 6 1.3. Research Questions ............................................................................................................................ 7 1.4. Thesis Structure .................................................................................................................................. 7 2. LITERATURE .......................................................................................................................................... 8 2.1. Lying Governments ............................................................................................................................. 8 2.1.1. Democracy .................................................................................................................................. 8 2.1.2. Psychological warfare ............................................................................................................... 10 2.1.2.1. Example of psychological warfare: Gladio ........................................................................ 11 2.1.3. Lying .......................................................................................................................................... 13 2.1.3.1. Definition of lying .............................................................................................................. 13 2.1.3.2. The consequences of lying ................................................................................................ 14 2.1.3.2.1. Consequences of bringing a lie into the world .......................................................... 14 2.1.3.2.2. Consequences of a lie being revealed ....................................................................... 15 2.1.3.2.3. Consequences of a governmental lie ........................................................................ 15 2.1.3.3. The intentions behind a lie ................................................................................................ 16 2.1.3.3.1. White lies ................................................................................................................... 16 2.1.3.3.2. Non-white lies ........................................................................................................... 16 2.1.3.3.3. Trying to distinguish white and non-white lies ......................................................... 17 2.1.3.4. Examples of lying governments ........................................................................................ 18 2.1.4. Corruption ................................................................................................................................. 20 2.2. Authoritarianism ............................................................................................................................... 21 2.2.1. Authoritarian behavior.............................................................................................................. 22 2.2.1.1. Submission to authority .................................................................................................... 22 2.2.1.2. Conventional ..................................................................................................................... 22 2.2.1.3. Ethnocentrism ................................................................................................................... 22 2.2.1.4. Double standards .............................................................................................................. 23 2.2.1.5. Limited reasoning .............................................................................................................. 23 2.2.2. Intolerance of difference .......................................................................................................... 25 2.2.2.1. Authoritarian Predisposition ............................................................................................. 26 2.2.2.2. Normative threat ............................................................................................................... 28 2.2.3. Norm-returning behavior .......................................................................................................... 28 2.3. Authoritarians in society ................................................................................................................... 30 3. MODEL ............................................................................................................................................... 32 3.1. Agent Based Modeling and Multi-Agent Systems ............................................................................ 32 3.1.1. What is Agent Based Modeling? ............................................................................................... 32 3.1.2. Examples of Agent Based Modeling .......................................................................................... 33 3.1.3. Working with an agent-based model ........................................................................................ 33 3.1.4. Why a Multi-Agent System? ..................................................................................................... 34 3.2. Our Multi-Agent System ................................................................................................................... 35 3.2.1. The world .................................................................................................................................. 36 3.2.1.1. Timeline ............................................................................................................................. 37 3.2.2. Government .............................................................................................................................. 38 3.2.2.1. Government as one entity ................................................................................................ 38 3.2.2.2. Making statements............................................................................................................ 38 3.2.2.3. Feedback from agents to government .............................................................................. 40 3.2.3. Agents ....................................................................................................................................... 41 3.2.3.1. Personality: Authoritarian or Libertarian .......................................................................... 41 3.2.3.2. Beliefs ................................................................................................................................ 42 3.2.3.2.1. Belief strength ........................................................................................................... 45 3.2.3.2.2. Belief importance ...................................................................................................... 46 3.2.3.2.3. Sources ...................................................................................................................... 47 3.2.3.3. Reasoning rules ................................................................................................................. 47 3.2.3.4. Anxiety level: interest and fear ......................................................................................... 48 3.2.3.4.1. Normative threat ....................................................................................................... 49 3.2.3.5. Neighbors .......................................................................................................................... 51 3.2.3.5.1. General trust ............................................................................................................. 51 3.2.3.5.2. Topic trust.................................................................................................................. 53 3.2.3.6. Trust in government .......................................................................................................... 54 3.2.4. Agents’ behavior ....................................................................................................................... 55 3.2.4.1. Communicating with neighbors ........................................................................................ 55 3.2.4.1.1. Who to communicate with ........................................................................................ 56 3.2.4.1.2. What to communicate ............................................................................................... 57 3.2.4.1.3. Listening to another agent ........................................................................................ 58 3.2.4.2. Listening to the government ............................................................................................