Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive DSpace Repository Theses and Dissertations 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items 2006-06 An unmastered past Latvia and Russia after NATO and EU enlargement: bilateral Issues of statecraft 2003-2006 Rikveilis, Airis Monterey, California http://hdl.handle.net/10945/2803 Downloaded from NPS Archive: Calhoun NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS AN UNMASTERED PAST: LATVIA AND RUSSIA AFTER NATO AND EU ENLARGEMENT: BILATERAL ISSUES OF STATECRAFT 2003-2006 by Airis Rikveilis June 2006 Thesis Advisor: Donald Abenheim Second Reader: Mikhail Tsypkin Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2006 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: 5. FUNDING NUMBERS An Unmastered Past: Latvia and Russia after NATO and EU Enlargement: Bilateral Issues of Statecraft 2003-2006 6. AUTHOR(S) Airis Rikveilis 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Latvian-Russian bilateral relations must be understood in their historical framework. Relations were expected to improve after the enlargement of NATO and the European Union in 2004. These expectations, however, were not fulfilled and changes within the international system left no significant influence on state of affairs in Latvian- Russian relations. This thesis examines the main theoretical paradigms of international relations, which influence the interstate relations as well as importance of perception of antagonistic policies. The centerpiece of these relations is the problem of the border treaty that includes several other issues such as recognition of occupation, state continuity of Latvia and eventually the problem of the Slavic population in Latvia. Therefore, the central consideration in this thesis is to explain the formulation and implementation of foreign policies of both states in context of agendas of political elite and society. The thesis also touches upon the future of Latvian-Russian relations, claiming that the current lack of incentives does not predict an optimistic scenario, namely, normalization of bilateral relations. Rather that both states will maintain the substantial level of animosity and will try to use situation on the international level to acquire supporters of their policies. 14. SUBJECT TERMS the Republic of Latvia, the Russian Federation, border treaty, bilateral 15. NUMBER OF relations, World War II, Waffen SS, NATO, European Union, the Abrene district, occupation, state PAGES continuity, international relations, foreign policy. 137 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. AN UNMASTERED PAST: LATVIA AND RUSSIA AFTER NATO AND EU ENLARGEMENT: BILATERAL ISSUES OF STATECRAFT 2003-2006 Airis Rikveilis, The Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Latvia Mag.soc.sc. University of Latvia, 2001 B.S. Academy of Music, Latvia, 1996 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2006 Author: Airis Rikveilis Approved by: Professor Donald Abenheim Thesis Advisor Professor Mikhail Tsypkin Second Reader Professor Douglas Porch Chairman, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT Latvian-Russian bilateral relations must be understood in their historical framework. Relations were expected to improve after the enlargement of NATO and the European Union in 2004. These expectations, however, were not fulfilled and changes within the international system left no significant influence on state of affairs in Latvian- Russian relations. Therefore, the central consideration in this thesis is to explain the formulation and implementation of foreign policies of both states in context of agendas of political elite and society. This thesis examines the main theoretical paradigms of international relations, which influence the interstate relations as well as importance of perception of antagonistic policies. The centerpiece of these relations is the problem of the border treaty that includes several other issues such as recognition of occupation, state continuity of Latvia and eventually the problem of the Slavic population in Latvia. The thesis also touches upon the future of Latvian-Russian relations, claiming that the current lack of incentives does not predict an optimistic scenario, namely, normalization of bilateral relations. Rather that both states will maintain the substantial level of animosity and will try to use situation on the international level to acquire supporters of their policies. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. PURPOSE AND SIGNIFICANCE.................................................................1 B. ARGUMENT AND MAJOR QUESTION ....................................................2 C. METHODOLOGY ..........................................................................................4 II. INTERESTS AND VALUES: FRAMEWORK OF LATVIAN-RUSSIAN BILATERAL RELATIONS .......................................................................................7 A. NEOREALISM, INSTITUTIONALISM, CONSTRUCTIVISM: THE SCOPE OF LATVIAN-RUSSIAN BILATERAL RELATIONS ................7 1. Neorealism ............................................................................................8 2. Liberal Institutionalism.....................................................................12 3. Constructivism ...................................................................................15 B. LATVIA AND RUSSIA IN THE CONTEXT OF EUROPEAN SECURITY.....................................................................................................19 C. INTERESTS AND VALUES: WHERE WILL THE PENDULUM SWING?..........................................................................................................26 III. LATVIAN DOMESTIC POLITICS AND FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS RUSSIA: THE INFLUENCE OF GHOSTS OF THE PAST ................................29 A. A SCOPE OF THE PROBLEM ...................................................................29 B. DOMESTIC POLITICS AND DEBATE ON HISTORY ..........................30 C. THE DOMESTIC DEBATE AND FOREIGN POLICY IMPLICATIONS ...........................................................................................33 1. National Security Concept ................................................................33 2. Foreign Policy Concept......................................................................35 3. The Declaration of Cabinet of Ministers .........................................36 D. PERCEPTION AND LANGUAGE..............................................................38 1. The Occupation and Restitution.......................................................44 2. Latvian Soldiers Under Alien Flags–Patriots, Criminals, or Victims? ..............................................................................................47 E. DOMESTIC POLITICS BETWEEN COHERENCE AND SCHISM: THE INFLUENCE OF FOREIGN POLICY FORMULATION..............49 IV. RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS LATVIA: POLITICAL CONSTRAINTS OF COOPERATION...................................................................53 A. THE MATRIX OF BILATERAL PROBLEMS.........................................53 B. LIMITED NATURE OF BILATERAL RELATIONS ..............................54 C. ASSUMPTIONS AND MISPERCEPTIONS IN BILATERAL RELATIONS: INTENTIONALITY VS. CONTINGENCY......................57 1. Historical Fundamentalism...............................................................57 2. Treatment of Slavic Minorities.........................................................63 3. Economic Cooperation ......................................................................69 D. COOPERATION BETWEEN