June 2018 GUATEMALA POPULATION DYNAMICS: 2015–2055 JUNE 2018 This publication was prepared by Ellen Smith, Juan Dent, Kaja Jurczynska, Marisela de la Cruz, and Claudia Roca of Palladium and the Health and Education Policy Plus project. Suggested citation: Smith, E., J. Dent, K. Jurczynska, M. de la Cruz, and C. Roca. 2018. Guatemala Population Dynamics 2015–2055. Washington, DC: Palladium, Health and Education Policy Plus. ISBN-13: 978-1-59560-172-8 Health Policy Plus operates as Health & Education Policy Plus (HEP+) in Guatemala. Health Policy Plus (HP+) is a five-year cooperative agreement funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development under Agreement No. AID-OAA-A-15-00051, beginning August 28, 2015. HP+ is implemented by Palladium, in collaboration with Avenir Health, Futures Group Global Outreach, Plan International USA, Population Reference Bureau, RTI International, ThinkWell, and the White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood. This report was produced for review by the U.S. Agency for International Development. It was prepared by HEP+. The information provided in this report is not official U.S. Government information and does not necessarily reflect the views or positions of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government. Guatemala Population Dynamics: 2015–2055 Contents Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................v Executive Summary .............................................................................................................. vi Background .......................................................................................................................... 1 Guatemala Today ............................................................................................................................... 2 Guatemala Tomorrow: Plan K’atun ................................................................................................... 9 What is the Demographic Dividend? ............................................................................................. 10 What is the Link between Demography and Violence? ................................................................ 11 Overview of Methodology ................................................................................................................ 13 Scenarios ......................................................................................................................................... 14 Limitations ....................................................................................................................................... 21 Results ............................................................................................................................... 23 Projections ....................................................................................................................................... 23 Interpersonal Violence .................................................................................................................... 30 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 36 References ......................................................................................................................... 37 ii Guatemala Population Dynamics: 2015–2055 List of Figures Figure 1: Guatemalan Population According to Censuses 1893–2002 ............................................ 2 Figure 2: Doubling Time, Guatemalan Population 1950–2015 ......................................................... 3 Figure 3: Population Pyramid of Guatemala, 2015 ............................................................................. 3 Figure 4: Gross Enrollment Ratio for Primary and Secondary School by Sex, 2007–2015 ............. 5 Figure 5: Net Enrollment Ratio for Primary and Secondary School by Sex, 2007–2015 ................. 5 Figure 6: Age of Students by Primary Grade, 2014 ............................................................................. 6 Figure 7: Distribution of Women’s (15–49) Educational Attainment, 1995–2014 .......................... 6 Figure 8: TFR and Women’s Education, 1987–2014 ......................................................................... 7 Figure 9: Contraceptive Prevalence Rate, 1987–2015 ...................................................................... 8 Figure 10: Unmet Need, 1995–2015 .................................................................................................. 8 Figure 11: GDP Per Capita, 1995–2015 ............................................................................................. 9 Figure 12: Total, Child, and Old Age Dependency Ratios, 1990–2100 .......................................... 11 Figure 13: Conceptual Framework..................................................................................................... 13 Figure 14: Contraceptive Prevalence Rate, 2015–2055 ................................................................. 15 Figure 15: Mean Years of Schooling by Age, 2014 .......................................................................... 16 Figure 16: Percentage of Adults Reporting Highest Level of Education Achieved as Diversificado or Tertiary, by Age and Sex, 2014 ............................................................................................ 17 Figure 17: Mean Years of Schooling, Women, 2015–2055 ............................................................ 18 Figure 18: Economic Submodule of DemDiv Model ......................................................................... 18 Figure 19: Expected Years of Schooling, Men, 2015–2055 ........................................................... 19 Figure 20: Scenarios for Gross Enrollment Ratio for Diversificado by (a) 2055 and (b) 2032 ..... 20 Figure 21: Total Fertility Rate, 2015–2055 ...................................................................................... 23 Figure 22: Percent of Dependents in the Total Population (National), by Scenario ....................... 25 Figure 23: Gross Domestic Product per Capita by Scenario, 2015–2055 ..................................... 26 Figure 24: Number of Health Workers Required by Scenario, 2015 and 2055 ............................. 27 Figure 25: Number of Students per Year by Level of Schooling and Scenario, 2015–2055 ........ 28 Figure 26: Cumulative Education Expenditures by Scenario and Level of Schooling, 2015– 2055 .......................................................................................................................................... 29 Figure 27: Urban Population by Age Group in 2015 and 2055 ....................................................... 30 Figure 28: Homicides in Guatemala .................................................................................................. 31 Figure 29: Youth Perceptions of the Most Important Problems Facing Guatemala ....................... 32 Figure 30: Youth Perceptions of the Economic Situation in Guatemala ......................................... 33 Figure 31: Guatemala's Future Projected Age Structure, 2055 ...................................................... 34 List of Tables Table 1: Sociodemographic Characteristics of Departments Included in Study................................ 2 Table 2: Scenario Assumptions .......................................................................................................... 15 Table 3: Number of Health Centers and Hospitals in 2015 by Department ................................... 20 Table 4: Urban Population by Department and their Largest City, 2015–2055 ............................ 21 Table 5: Mean Years of Schooling in the Population (25+) Estimates (National) .......................... 21 Table 6: Impact of Educational Attainment on TFR by Ethnicity ...................................................... 24 Table 7: Number and Percent of Additional Maternal Deaths Averted by 2055 Compared to Base Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 25 Table 8: Employment Gap by 2055 Compared to Base Scenario (millions) ................................... 26 iii Guatemala Population Dynamics: 2015–2055 Acknowledgments We would like to acknowledge Health and Education Policy Plus (HEP+) staff Jay Gribble, Herminia Reyes, and Polly Mott who contributed to the analysis and finalization of this report. We would also like to extend a special thanks to Claudia Quinto with HEP+ for her invaluable efforts to collect data and prepare the subnational model files. Likewise, Antoinette Sullivan, Yma Alfaro, and Mario Von Ahn from the U.S. Agency for International Development/Guatemala’s Office of Health and Education provided valuable input and support throughout the development of the study and report. HEP+ met with a series of stakeholders to discuss the analytical framework and possible use of results. HEP+ thanks representatives from the following organizations for their valuable input: Ministry of Education, Ministry of Health and Social Assistance, National Institute of Statistics, Organization for Women’s Health and Development, United Nations Population Fund, APROFAM, Ministry of Public Finances, National Alliance of Indigenous Women’s Organizations for Reproductive Health, Nutrition and Education, Project Miriam, Presidential Secretariat for Women, and Wings Guatemala.