3 SMUGGLING OF MIGRANTS A global threat assessment 3 SMUGGLING OF MIGRANTS their charges, and abuses are commonplace, parti- cularly when the movement is clandestine. Many The United Nations defines smuggling of die on their way to their destination, or are aban- migrants as: doned without resources en route. As with many the procurement, in order to obtain, directly or indi- other illegal transnational activities, efforts to stop rectly, a financial or other material benefit, of the illegal immigration can create opportunities for illegal entry of a person into a State of which the organized criminals. person is not a national or a permanent resident.1 The interdependency of the global economy today The criminal, under this definition, is the smuggler, explains why migrant smuggling is a growing cri- not the smuggled. The aim of the Migrant Smug- minal enterprise. Capital flows virtually unimpeded gling Protocol is not to stop illegal immigration. It around the world; the same is not true for labour. is to stop organized criminals from profiting off an The two are connected, however, as a growing share inherently vulnerable population. of national incomes are dependent on transnational remittance flows, particularly in the smaller econo- This population is vulnerable because of the great mies. Remittance flows are largest for lower-middle differences in opportunities experienced in different income countries, not the poorest of the poor. These parts of the world. By accident of birth, many young flows do not necessarily come from the richest people face a much bleaker future than their coun- countries – they need only be richer than the source terparts abroad, if they accept the impermeability of countries to attract labour. national borders. A large number of people are will- ing to take great risks in order to gain a chance at a Both developing and developed countries need better future away from their homeland, including well-regulated migration. Many developed coun- violating immigration laws. In some communities, tries are facing low or even negative population the practice is very common, and illegal immigra- growth, and populations are ageing. At the same tion bears no social stigma. time, many developing countries are still seeing population growth that exceeds economic growth, Because they must enter their destination country but restrictions on legal migration have arguably illegally, undocumented migrants may feel com- increased in the last thirty years. pelled to enlist the help of smugglers, either for the purposes of entering the country clandestinely or There are an estimated 50 million irregular interna- for assistance in acquiring fraudulent paperwork to tional migrants in the world today.2 A good share of secure a visa. Because these services are illegal, those these people paid for assistance in illegally crossing who provide them have tremendous power over borders. The fees involved can be many times their FIG. 40: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX, 2007 0.98 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.33 No data UNODC / SCIENCES PO Source: UNDP Case studies of transnational threats 55 SMUGGLING OF MIGRANTS FIG. 41: MIGRANTS’ REMITTANCES AS A SHARE OF NATIONAL GDP (TOP 25 COUNTRIES), 2007 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% oa ala aica m Haiti m Togo Nepal m Serbia Tonga Jordan Sa Albania Lesotho Guyana Ja Senegal Lebanon Moldova Tajikistan Honduras Nicaragua Philippines Kyrgyzstan El Salvador Bosnia and Guate Bangladesh Cape Verde Herzegovina inican Republic m Do Source: World Bank FIG. 42: TRENDS IN REMITTANCE INFLOWS, 1994-2008 degree of cultural isolation of the migrants and the difficulties of evading law enforcement. In practice, migrants may pay for assistance in making some Low- 350,000 border crossings while tackling others independ- income ently. They may travel alone until they meet resist- countries 300,000 ance, and only then seek assistance. Middle- income The nature of that assistance is likewise varied. ittance Inflows 250,000 m Many “smugglers” may also run legitimate busi- High 200,000 nesses. For example, licensed travel agents may pro- income vide advice and assistance to people wishing to 3 150,000 migrate illegally. Some are merely opportunistic carriers or hospitality providers who choose to look 100,000 the other way. Demand for transport and sanctuary may suddenly emerge as migration routes shift, and US$ Millions - Migrant Re 50,000 in some parts of the world, small businesspeople cannot afford to be choosy about their clientele.4 - Many may fail to appreciate the moral downside of 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 helping people find a better life. On the other hand, full-time professional criminals – some specialized Source: World Bank in smuggling people, some not – are important in many flows around the world. Both formal and annual income before migrating. They may borrow informal structures may operate without conflict, so heavily against the expectation of greater future long as business is plentiful. earnings, and their debtors may be equally poor people who invest everything in the hope of forth- Smugglers are often either of the national origin or coming remittances. ethnic background of the migrant group they serve, or of the country of transit, depending on the role Of course, not every illegal migrant requires assist- played. One typology distinguishes “local smug- ance in getting to their destination, but a surprising glers” from “stage coordinators”. Stage coordinators share do, even when the path seems fairly direct. A help migrants navigate through a particular country number of factors can favour high levels of organi- or part of their journey, and, for reasons of com- zation, including the distance to be travelled, the munication and trust, are generally of the same 56 3 FIG. 43: POPULATION GROWTH RATE, SELECTED COUNTRIES (MOST RECENT) 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Italy Brazil China Japan Russia Liberia France Poland Turkey Mexico Angola Uganda Somalia Canada Morocco -1% Germany Paraguay Honduras Nicaragua Guatemala Congo DRC Afghanistan Sierra Leone United States United Kingdom Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank ethnic background/origin as the migrants. They FIG. 44: REGIONAL SHARES OF WORLD POPULATION, subcontract services to smugglers who come from HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED the area to be crossed and thus know the terrain 5 best. 100% Oceania Services may be purchased as a package from origin Northern America Europe to destination, or piecemeal, with more compre- 80% hensive and safe approaches commanding higher Latin America and Caribbean Africa prices. Air travel with visa fraud is the preferred Asia route for most who can afford it, and those less 60% well-resourced are compelled to take their chances 6 with more arduous land and sea voyages. Many 40% migrants optimize their value for money by com- bining strategies.7 20% The following two flow studies exemplify many of these observations, and illustrate the pull the afflu- 0% ent north has upon its southern neighbors. The 1900 1950 1999 2008 2050est largest number of migrant apprehensions found anywhere in the world is along the southern border Source: Population Division, United Nations Department of of the USA, a flow that, despite proximity, is largely Economic and Social Affairs handled by organized groups. A flow with similar dynamics and growing potential is that from Africa to Europe. These are not the only two major illegal migration flows in the world, of course. There are also a number of undocumented migrants from East Africa to Yemen, and a flow of people through Central Asia to the Russian Federation and beyond. But the flows to the USA and Europe are probably the most lucrative ones for smugglers, and so they are the topic of the flow studies below. Case studies of transnational threats 57 SMUGGLING OF MIGRANTS What is the nature of the market? then overstayed, with the remainder having entered the country clandestinely. The nationalities most The USA is a nation of immigrants, and its recep- likely to be denied a visa are also among those most tivity to immigration has long been one of the likely to be detected entering clandestinely. Most country’s strengths. It presently hosts – in absolute clandestine entrants to the USA come across the terms - by far the largest foreign-born population of Mexican border, and most of these entrants are any country in the world. This situation is a mani- Mexican. Given the proximity of the country, it is festation of deeply held American values, including not surprising that most Mexican illegal immigrants a belief in social mobility and self-reliance. Com- enter the country by clandestinely crossing the pared to the European Union, for example, the border, rather than relying on a visa overstay or USA offers a relatively slender social safety net to other overt means.10 As is explained below, over new arrivals. From an economic perspective, it 90% of illegal Mexican migrants are assisted by therefore risks less by allowing an immigrant into professional smugglers. the country. People emigrate to the USA from all over the world, The USA hosts the second-largest Spanish-speaking but Latin America provides the largest regional population in the world. More than 9 million share, accounting for over a third of the foreign- people born in Mexico alone were living in the USA born population. Most of these migrants are autho- at the time of the 2000 census, the single largest rized, but it is estimated that just under a third of foreign national contributor to the population. all immigrants to the USA are illegal, and about Over a third of the population speaks Spanish in the 80% of the illegal emigrant population in the coun- border states of California, Texas and New Mexico. try is from Latin America.8 Combined with the fact that some 150 million Latin Americans live on less than two dollars per Of all illegal immigrants in the USA, an estimated day, this expatriate population exerts a powerful 25-40% entered the country on a legal visa and pull on the poorer states to the south.11 Mexican immigrants can expect to greatly improve their FIG.