APPENDIX – M (MUSKOKA) SNC-LAVALIN INC. Hydrodynamic Modelling To Delineate Intake Protection Zones in Georgian Bay, Severn Sound and Little Lake. W.F. BAIRD & ASSOCIATES COASTAL ENGINEERS LTD. (BAIRD 2010H) Muskoka: IPZ Delineation and Vulnerability Scoring for SGBL-LS SPR Georgian Bay Intakes. GENIVAR CONSULTANTS LP (FORMERLY JAGGER HIMS) TECHNICAL MEMORANDUMS Muskoka: Technical Memorandum I1 - Drinking Water Issues Evaluation FINAL REPORT LAKE SIMCOE REGION CONSERVATION AUTHORITY Hydrodynamic Modelling To Delineate Intake Protection Zones in Georgian Bay, Severn Sound and Little Lake 333011 August 2009 FINAL REPORT LAKE SIMCOE REGION CONSERVATION AUTHORITY Hydrodynamic Modelling To Delineate Intake Protection Zones in Georgian Bay, Severn Sound and Little Lake 333011 August 2009 Hydrodynamic Modelling to Delineate Intake Protection Zones Final Report Georgian Bay, Severn Sound and Little Lake August 4, 2009 Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority 333011 TABLE OF CONTENTS Transmittal Letter EXECUTIVE SUMMARY …………………………………………………………………..……………………1 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 6 2.0 STUDY AREA..................................................................................................................7 2.1 Collingwood Intake............................................................................................... 7 2.2 Christian Island..................................................................................................... 7 2.3 Beausoleil Island................................................................................................... 8 2.4 Victoria Harbour Intake ........................................................................................ 9 2.5 Rope Subdivision Intake ....................................................................................... 9 2.6 Port Severn Intake – Little Lake Lone Pine Drive.............................................. 10 2.7 Severn River Flows at Little Lake ...................................................................... 11 3.0 INTAKE PROTECTION ZONES................................................................................... 14 3.1 Great Lakes Intakes............................................................................................. 14 3.2 Inland Lakes........................................................................................................ 14 4.0 MODELLING APPROACH............................................................................................ 15 4.1 GEMSS Description............................................................................................ 15 4.1.1 GEMSS – Hydrodynamic Module (HDM)............................................ 16 4.1.2 GEMSS-Source Water Protection Zone Module (SPM) - Direct and Reverse Particle Modelling………………………………………..17 4.2 Modelling Methodology ..................................................................................... 19 5.0 MODEL SETUP .............................................................................................................. 20 5.1 Bathymetric and Shoreline Data ......................................................................... 20 5.1.1 Near-Field Grids.................................................................................... 21 5.1.2 Collingwood Region.............................................................................. 21 5.1.3 Christian Island...................................................................................... 21 5.1.4 Severn Sound......................................................................................... 23 5.1.5 Little Lake.............................................................................................. 23 5.2 Boundary Condition Data ................................................................................... 23 5.2.1 Meteorological Data.............................................................................. 24 5.2.2 Buoy Data.............................................................................................. 25 5.2.3 Water Surface Elevation ........................................................................ 25 5.2.4 River Inflow Volumes ........................................................................... 26 5.2.5 River Inflow Temperatures.................................................................... 26 5.2.6 Precipitation........................................................................................... 27 5.2.7 Intake Withdrawals................................................................................ 27 5.3 Model Calibration............................................................................................... 28 5.3.1 Georgian Bay Calibration (Far–Field Model)........................................ 28 5.3.2 Hydrodynamic Calibration.................................................................... 28 5.3.3 Temperature Calibration........................................................................ 28 5.3.4 Collingwood Calibration (Regional Model) .......................................... 29 5.3.5 Temperature Calibration........................................................................ 29 5.3.6 Christian Island Calibration (Regional Model)...................................... 30 5.3.7 Severn Sound Calibration (Regional Model)......................................... 30 Page i Environment Hydrodynamic Modelling to Delineate Intake Protection Zones Final Report Georgian Bay, Severn Sound and Little Lake August 4, 2009 Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority 333011 5.3.8 Little Lake Calibration (Regional Model) ............................................. 34 6.0 SOURCE WATER PROTECTION ZONES ................................................................... 35 6.1 Collingwood (Regional Model).......................................................................... 35 6.1.1 Preliminary Analysis of the Intake Protection Zone.............................. 36 6.1.2 Intake Protection Zone (IPZ-2).............................................................. 37 6.2 Christian Island (Regional Model)...................................................................... 38 6.2.1 Preliminary Analysis of the Intake Protection Zone.............................. 39 6.2.2 Intake Protection Zone (IPZ-2).............................................................. 39 6.3 Severn Sound (Regional Model)......................................................................... 39 6.3.1 Preliminary Analysis of the Intake Protection Zone.............................. 41 6.3.2 Intake Protection Zones (IPZ-2) ............................................................ 42 6.4 Little Lake (Regional Model) ............................................................................. 46 6.4.1 Preliminary Analysis of the Intake Protection Zone.............................. 46 6.4.2 Intake Protection Zone (IPZ-2)……………………………………… 46 7.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................................... 48 7.1 Conclusion …………………………………………………………………….. 49 7.2 Recommendations …………………………………………………………….. 51 8.0 REFERENCES................................................................................................................ .53 APPENDICES Appendix A Intake Drawings - Collingwood - Christian Island - Beausoleil - Victoria Harbour - Rope Subdivision - Little Lake (Port Severn Lone Pine Drive) Appendix B Frequency Analysis - Severn River Discharge at Little Lake Appendix C Boundary Condition Data - List of all the boundary conditions relevant to the Georgian Bay water protection study - List of all the boundary conditions relevant to the Georgian Bay Source water protection Study and their data availability - Statistical summary of river discharges - Meteorological data availability from different stations - List of meteorological stations Appendix D Summary of Monthly Average Precipitation - Statistical summary of precipitation Appendix E Drogue Tracking Surveys Page ii Environment Hydrodynamic Modelling to Delineate Intake Protection Zones Final Report Georgian Bay, Severn Sound and Little Lake August 4, 2009 Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority 333011 Appendix F Intake Operator Surveys - Collingwood - Little Lake - Rope Subdivision - Victoria Harbour Appendix G Little Lake Temperatures Appendix H Sensitivity Analyses LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1 Severn River Monthly Flow ………………………………………………. 11 Table 2 Severn River at Swift Rapids Maximum Daily Discharge ……………….. 12 Table 3 Return Period Flow - Severn River Near the Mouth ……………………… 13 Table 4 Statistical Summary of Intake Flow Rates ………………………………… 28 Page iii Environment Hydrodynamic Modelling to Delineate Intake Protection Zones Final Report Georgian Bay, Severn Sound and Little Lake August 4, 2009 Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority 333011 LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1 Navigation Chart Showing the Collingwood Intake ………………………. 1 Figure 2 Navigation Chart Showing Christian Island Intake ……………………….. 1 Figure 3 Navigation Chart Showing Beausoleil Island Intake ……………………… 2 Figure 4 Navigation Chart Showing Victoria Harbour Intake ……………………… 2 Figure 5 Navigation Chart Showing Rope Subdivision Intake ……………………... 3 Figure 6 Navigation Chart Showing Little Lake Lone Pine Drive Intake ………….. 3 Figure 7 Little Lake Water Level Variations …………………………………………4 Figure 8 GEMSS Software Layout …………………………………………………. 15 * Figure 9 Bathymetric