INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING: A CROSS- NATIONAL PANEL STUDY OF ICT DEVELOPMENT ON CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS 1990-2009 By JOSEPH MICHAEL SIMPSON Bachelor of Science in Sociology Cameron University Lawton, Oklahoma 2005 Master of Science in Sociology Oklahoma State University Stillwater, Oklahoma 2008 Submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate College of the Oklahoma State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY December, 2013 INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING: A CROSS- NATIONAL PANEL STUDY OF ICT DEVELOPMENT ON CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS 1990-2009 Dissertation Approved: Dr. Riley E. Dunlap Dissertation Committee Chair Dr. Andrew Fullerton Dissertation Advisor Dr. Beth Caniglia Dr. David Knottnerus Dr. Jacqueline Vadjunec ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my two dissertation advisors. Dr. Riley Dunlap, I would not have succeeded without your guidance and mentorship, not just as my advisor but also as my teacher, colleague, and friend. I am proud to call myself an Environmental Sociologist and I have you to thank for that. Dr. Andrew Fullerton, I would not have been able to do the quantitative analysis without your excellent class, continued collaboration, and friendship. Thank you to the rest of the committee. Dr. Beth Caniglia, you were there to give me advice when I was not sure what direction to take or where to turn. Dr. David Knottnerus, you helped mentor me into to the sociologist I am today, any deep understanding of social structure I have I owe to you. Dr. Jacqueline Vadjunec, thank you for participating in this journey with me. I am sociologist because of my first two professors at Cameron University, Dr. Robert Bausch and Dr. Su Lee. Thank you both. I have the depth of knowledge that I do because of the wonderful professors in the Sociology department at Oklahoma State University. Thank you Dr. Tom Shriver, Dr. Michael Stern, Dr. Jean Van Delinder, Dr. Tamera Mix, Dr. Duane Gill, Dr. Ron Thrasher, and Dr. Gary Webb. Thank you to the staff that helped me so often, Barbie, Sue, and Dahlia. Many of my fellow Oklahoma State University Sociology graduate students and alum have helped me in one way or another. Dr. Vicky Elias, you have been my friend at OSU and ever since we met at the beginning of our graduate studies our friendship has rewarded me every day. Thank you for copy editing my dissertation and fighting to get me a faculty position with you in San Antonio. Dr. Jan Meij, you helped develop my ideas about environmental sociology through many debates and thought experiments. Dr. Toralf Zschau, you helped me apply a critical iii Acknowledgements reflect the views of the author and are not endorsed by committee members or Oklahoma State University. eye toward my views on many issues and are always available with deep and well-considered intellectual advice. Rich Elefritz, you have helped me more than I can say. You are a good friend and fierce intellectual that is never afraid to extend yourself or challenge me when I need it. Dr. Jeremy Ross, when I was anxious you knew how to settle my fear and tell me exactly what I needed to hear. Thank you for your emotional intelligence and the hugs. Nicole Colston, you helped bring out the best in me and showed me why I should be a professor. To all of my other fellow graduate students at OSU—Stan, Katie, Sean, Kris, Frank, Brant and all of my colleagues throughout the years—thank you for always being there to support each other and me. I want to thank my friend Patrick Webb for supporting me and being a true friend. Thanks to Marc Webb for being a stable influence in my life. To Bryan Henry, David Walls, Jim Teeter, David Dodson, Dewayne Womack, Adam Duffy and all my other friends, thank you for being there to kick back and relax when I needed to and encourage me when I needed that too. I thank my family for their continuing support in all of my endeavors. It has been a long road and they have supported me every step of the way. I am especially proud to be a second generation Ph.D., after my father Dr. Phillip Simpson. Special thanks to my Mom, Linda Simpson, for all of the special things she does to show me how much she cares. I thank my second Mom Jan Belusko for giving me the gift of opportunity and forgiveness. Lastly, I must thank my wife, Katie Simpson for putting up with my long work hours and my frustration. This dissertation is dedicated to the memories of Sarah Belusko, my lost love and colleague, and Matthew Simpson my late older brother. I think of you both often and wish I could share this with you both. iv Acknowledgements reflect the views of the author and are not endorsed by committee members or Oklahoma State University. Name: JOSEPH MICHAEL SIMPSON Date of Degree: DECEMBER, 2013 Title of Study: INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING: A CROSS- NATIONAL PANEL STUDY OF ICT DEVELOPMENT ON CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS 1990-2009 Major Field: Sociology Abstract: Policy makers and ecological modernization scholars have begun to focus attention on the application of information and communications technologies (ICTs) to the mitigation of CO2 emissions, the primary cause of anthropogenic global warming. This begs the question. Does ICT development increase or decrease CO2 emissions? Two schools of thought provide competing hypotheses on this question. On one hand, Ecological Modernization Theory and its associated perspectives offer an optimistic appraisal of the impact of ICT development on CO2 emissions. On the other hand, World Systems Theory, Treadmill of Production Theory and Structural Human Ecology Theory offer a pessimistic view of the potential for ICT development to reduce CO2 emissions. This dissertation investigates the impact of ICT development on CO2 emissions and resolves which school of thought is most appropriate. The analyses of six dependent variables (total CO2 emissions, per capita CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions from electricity, buildings, manufacturing, and transportation) are conducted using a multilevel growth model that examines both changes over time (level-1) and differences between countries (level-2). The analyses cover the years 1990-2009 and uses three samples of nations: a global sample of all countries that data are available for (N=1926, n=121), a developed countries sample (N=461, n=26) and a less-developed countries sample (N=1465, n=95). Four key ICT development indicators are included as independent variables: fixed telephones per 100 people, mobile telephones per 100 people, the leapfrogging ratio of mobile telephones to fixed telephones and Internet users per 100 people. Population size, GDP per capita, urbanization, trade, and service economy are included as controls. The results of the analyses support the pessimistic view of ICT development. Fixed telephones per 100 people is the most consistent driver of increased CO2 emissions globally. Mobile telephones do not have a significant impact on CO2 emissions. Globally, the Internet does not have a significant effect on CO2 emissions; however, in developed countries the Internet does increase CO2 emissions. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page 1. INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................1 1.1 Anthropogenic Global Warming and Climate Change......................................2 1.2 Information and Communication Technologies.................................................5 1.3 Structure of the Dissertation............................................................................11 1.4 Conclusion .......................................................................................................12 2. THEORY AND LITERATURE REVIEW .............................................................14 2.1 Orientations Toward the Future, ICTs and the Environment..........................16 2.2 Optimistic Perspectives....................................................................................17 2.2.1 Ecological Modernization Theory ................................................................23 2.2.2 ICTs and the Environmental Kuznets Curve.................................................27 2.2.3 Technological and Environmental Leapfrogging .........................................30 2.3 Pessimistic Perspectives ..................................................................................32 2.3.1 Political Economy: World Systems Theory, Treadmill of Production Theory and the Jevons’s Paradox ......................................................................................33 2.3.2 Structural Human Ecology ...........................................................................42 2.4 Conclusion .......................................................................................................45 3. DATA AND METHODS ........................................................................................46 3.1 The Multilevel Model for Growth ....................................................................48 3.2 Research Hypotheses .......................................................................................56 3.3 Dependent Variables........................................................................................59 3.4 Level-1: Time-Varying Covariates ..................................................................62 3.4.1 Key Level-1 Time Varying Covariates: