DECEMBER 7, 2020 | WEBEX 2021 Energy Efficiency Forecast Data Review and Verification: End Use Measure Data Energy Efficiency Forecast Working Group Tim Costa SYSTEM PLANNING ISO-NE PUBLIC Outline • Measure Data Collection Background • Measure Detail – New England Summary • Measure Detail - State Level • Measure Detail – Focus on Connecticut • Energy, Demand, and Cost by Measure ISO-NE PUBLIC 2 Disclaimer • This presentation and data representation are not intended to be used as cost effectiveness tests for Energy efficiency programs. The ISO has no position regarding cost effectiveness. • Measure data is sourced from Program Administrator submissions over the past energy efficiency Forecast data collection cycles. • The dataset is not complete, particularly in the area of dollars spent per measure type. Therefore, analysis is only presented where complete data are available. • All assumptions and conclusions from these representations are preliminary and for informational purpose only. ISO-NE PUBLIC 3 Background on Measure Data • 2012 Forecast – PA data collection process included request to report the measures in each program for 2008-2010, where available. • 2013 Forecast – PA data collection process included a request to report the relative percentage of energy savings for the 10 top measures in each program year 2011, where available. • 2014 Forecast – PA data collection process included a request to report the relative percentages of energy savings, demand savings, and dollars spent for the 10 top measures in each program for years 2008 – 2012, where available. • 2015-2021 Forecasts – PA measure data collection request the same as 2014 forecast. ISO-NE PUBLIC 4 MEASURE DETAIL New England Summary ISO-NE PUBLIC 5 Completeness of Measure Data MA CT ME RI VT NH NE Energy 2012 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2013 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2014 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2015 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 2016 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 2017 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 2018 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2019 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Peak 2012 90% 100% 100% 100% 100% 88% 94% 2013 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 91% 100% 2014 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2015 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2016 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 2017 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 2018 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 2019 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Total Cost 2012 56% 100% 98% 0% 100% 87% 63% 2013 94% 100% 95% 94% 100% 91% 95% 2014 97% 100% 93% 94% 100% 100% 96% 2015 94% 100% 93% 82% 100% 100% 93% 2016 92% 100% 91% 85% 100% 100% 92% 2017 80% 100% 91% 86% 100% 100% 85% 2018 100% 100% 91% 0% 100% 100% 91% 2019 100% 100% 92% 100% 100% 100% 89% ISO-NE PUBLIC 6 Percent of Annual Energy by Program Year - NE ISO-NE PUBLIC 7 Percent of Annual Energy by State All Years ISO-NE PUBLIC 8 Percent of Annual Energy by Sector All Years – New England ISO-NE PUBLIC 9 MEASURE DETAIL States ISO-NE PUBLIC 10 Percent of Annual Energy by Program Year Connecticut ISO-NE PUBLIC 11 Percent of Annual Energy by Program Year Massachusetts ISO-NE PUBLIC 12 Percent of Annual Energy by Program Year Maine ISO-NE PUBLIC 13 Percent of Annual Energy by Program Year New Hampshire ISO-NE PUBLIC 14 Percent of Annual Energy by Program Year Rhode Island ISO-NE PUBLIC 15 Percent of Annual Energy by Program Year Vermont ISO-NE PUBLIC 16 MEASURE DETAIL Focus on Connecticut ISO-NE PUBLIC 17 Percent of Annual Energy by Program Year Connecticut Commercial and Industrial ISO-NE PUBLIC 18 Percent of Annual Energy by Program Year Connecticut Residential ISO-NE PUBLIC 19 Percent of Annual Energy by Program Year Connecticut Low Income ISO-NE PUBLIC 20 Percent of Annual Demand by Program Year Connecticut ISO-NE PUBLIC 21 Percent of Annual Demand by Program Year Connecticut Commercial and Industrial ISO-NE PUBLIC 22 Percent of Annual Demand by Program Year Connecticut Residential ISO-NE PUBLIC 23 Percent of Annual Demand by Program Year Connecticut Low Income ISO-NE PUBLIC 24 Percent of Annual Costs by Program Year Connecticut ISO-NE PUBLIC 25 Percent of Annual Costs by Program Year Connecticut Commercial and Industrial ISO-NE PUBLIC 26 Percent of Annual Costs by Program Year Connecticut Residential ISO-NE PUBLIC 27 Percent of Annual Costs by Program Year Low Income ISO-NE PUBLIC 28 Production Cost by Program Year Connecticut ISO-NE PUBLIC 29 Production Cost by Program Year Connecticut Commercial and Industrial ISO-NE PUBLIC 30 Production Cost by Program Year Connecticut Residential ISO-NE PUBLIC 31 Production Cost by Program Year Connecticut Low Income ISO-NE PUBLIC 32 Peak to Energy Ratio by Program Year Connecticut ISO-NE PUBLIC 33 Peak to Energy Ratio by Program Year Connecticut Commercial and Industrial ISO-NE PUBLIC 34 Peak to Energy Ratio by Program Year Connecticut Residential ISO-NE PUBLIC 35 Peak to Energy Ratio by Program Year Connecticut Low Income ISO-NE PUBLIC 36 ENERGY, DEMAND, AND COST BY MEASURE ISO-NE PUBLIC 37 2019 Percent Energy, Demand, and Cost - NE ISO-NE PUBLIC 38 Measure Costs, Savings, and Peak to Energy Ratios Connecticut - 2019 Total Cost Annual Annual Peak to Energy Measure $/MWh $/MW ($1000's) MWh MW (MW/GWh) Building Envelope 5,768 1,280 0.3 4,508 18,591,920 0.24 Custom 2,116 2,144 0.3 987 6,920,344 0.14 HVAC 43,076 25,484 9.5 1,690 4,547,774 0.37 Hot Water 2,532 2,327 0.2 1,088 11,031,321 0.10 Lighting 99,497 274,284 39.6 363 2,514,261 0.14 Motors/Drives/VFD 1,519 3,430 0.5 443 3,070,747 0.14 Other 11,791 11,655 1.1 1,012 10,552,838 0.10 Process 9,046 20,976 2.2 431 4,033,972 0.11 Refrigeration 2,093 4,983 0.3 420 8,055,133 0.05 State 177,437 346,561 54 512 3,285,591 0.16 ISO-NE PUBLIC 39 Measure Costs, Savings, and Peak to Energy Ratios Maine - 2019 Total Cost Annual Annual Peak to Energy Measure $/MWh $/MW ($1000's) MWh MW (MW/GWh) Building Envelope 64 34 <0.1 1,853 202,668,312 0.01 Compressed Air 294 1,638 0.3 179 1,032,115 0.17 Custom 3,840 9,275 1.1 414 3,524,095 0.12 Hot Water 11,445 17,553 1.8 652 6,303,796 0.1 HVAC 3,192 2,211 0.3 1,444 9,933,267 0.15 Lighting 16,525 73,965 12 223 1,363,187 0.16 Process 599 1,032 0.2 581 3,858,360 0.15 State 35,959 105,708 16 340 2,277,459 0.15 ISO-NE PUBLIC 40 Measure Costs, Savings, and Peak to Energy Ratios Vermont - 2019 Total Cost Annual Annual Peak to Energy Measure $/MWh $/MW ($1000's) MWh MW (MW/GWh) Appliances 1,000 1,493 0.3 670 3,217,259 0.21 Consumer Products 46 101 <0.1 452 4,218,750 0.11 Education 1,734 420 0.1 4,134 25,370,355 0.16 Hot Water 1,395 3,048 0.2 458 7,355,248 0.06 HVAC 10,800 12,347 0.7 875 16,472,116 0.05 Lighting 19,621 80,576 9.3 244 2,102,428 0.12 Motors/Drives/VFD 1,380 4,070 0.5 339 2,901,889 0.12 Other 5,665 5,564 0.9 1,018 6,042,690 0.17 Process 2,198 6,246 0.8 352 2,854,889 0.12 Refrigeration 2,918 6,146 1.1 475 2,554,664 0.19 State 46,755 120,010 13.9 390 3,365,468 0.12 ISO-NE PUBLIC 41 Measure Costs, Savings, and Peak to Energy Ratios New Hampshire - 2019 Total Cost Annual Annual Peak to Energy Measure $/MWh $/MW ($1000's) MWh MW (MW/GWh) Building Envelope 9,200 1,795 0.5 5,127 17,774,011 0.29 Compressed Air 31 69 <0.1 444 1,638,109 0.27 Custom 2,159 2,189 0.1 987 14,812,099 0.07 Education 168 2,350 0.1 71 2,737,364 0.03 Hot Water 383 1,114 0.1 343 2,587,570 0.13 HVAC 8,682 4,871 0.9 1,782 9,767,901 0.18 Lighting 17,791 73,043 9.8 244 1,824,288 0.13 Motors/Drives/VFD 11 79 <0.1 137 1,778,336 0.08 Other 768 4,421 0.4 174 2,085,357 0.08 Process 3,382 5,743 0.5 589 6,713,127 0.09 Refrigeration 1,353 1,867 0.2 725 6,041,201 0.12 State 43,927 97,541 12.6 450 3,476,764 0.13 ISO-NE PUBLIC 42 Measure Costs, Savings, and Peak to Energy Ratios Massachusetts - 2019 Total Cost Annual Annual Peak to Energy Measure $/MWh $/MW ($1000's) MWh MW (MW/GWh) Building Envelope 87275 20,393 2.8 4,280 30,827,743 0.14 Compressed Air 2,425 7,952 1.6 305 1,477,512 0.21 Custom 11,826 61,065 9.3 194 1,272,839 0.15 Education 3,616 47,214 6.6 77 548,153 0.14 Hot Water 6,848 5,744 0.5 1,192 13,251,779 0.09 HVAC 104,563 67,167 12 1,557 8,645,943 0.18 Lighting 305,236 790,157 120 386 2,547,277 0.15 Motors/Drives/VFD 11,566 24,092 6.3 480 1,839,351 0.26 Other 464 1,834 0.3 253 1,626,472 0.16 Process 32,503 56,118 7.7 579 4,206,496 0.14 Refrigeration 7,327 11,362 1.2 645 6,086,956 0.11 State 573,651 1,093,099 168 525 3,408,423 0.15 ISO-NE PUBLIC 43 ISO-NE PUBLIC 44.