Food Security Monitoring Bulletin INDONESIA Special Focus: Food security in 100 districts prioritized for reduction of stunting Volume 9, December 2017 CLIMATE, FOOD SECURITY & NUTRITION November 2017 Outlook January - March 2018 Climate: More floods x and More landslides floods and landslides Above-normal rainfall across the • Prepare for more floods and country J a n u a r y = P E A K R A I N Y S E A S O N landslides Cyclone Cempaka - heavy rains and More paddy extreme winds in the south-eastern harvested Normal to above normal rainfall expected coast of Java The 100 priority districts: Special Focus: Food security situation in the 100 priority districts to reduce stunting x x x Access: Affordability is a Consumption: Protein and Utilization: 40% of In-depth analysis of food consumption Availability of food and expenditure patterns in the 100 challenge for low and energy intake inadequate for households did not have staples is adequate stunting priority districts to inform the middle income groups low and middle income access to clean drinking intervention households water 2 Key messages Climate Weak to moderate La Niña conditions contributed to higher than normal rainfall across the country. In late November, Recommendations cyclone Cempaka brought heavy rains and extreme winds to the south-eastern coast of Java. The high rainfall led to increased floods and landslides, causing destruction and damage. Higher than normal rainfall throughout the dry Climate: season led to higher paddy harvest between September and November 2017. Over the next three months, with the continued impact of La Niña, normal to above normal rains are expected, - Preparedness for floods and increasing the risk of floods, landslides and associated damages. Given that Indonesia experienced an unusually high landslides as the country number of floods and landslides since mid-2016, the coping capacity of the affected population may be stretched, enters the peak rainy which may affect their ability to respond to the potential disasters in the upcoming months. season Special Focus: Food Security Situation in 100 Districts prioritized for reduction in stunting 100 Districts prioritized to reduce: In 2017, the government launched a Presidential National Action Plan that aims to address the high levels of stunting among children under 5-years of age. The National Action Plan directs national ministries to focus their programmes - In-depth analysis of and activities in 2018 on 100 districts with a high stunting prevalence, stunting incidence and a high poverty rate. This consumption and initiative has already been launched in 8 districts in 2017. expenditure patterns to Food insecurity is one of the underlying factors contributing to stunting. Among the 100 Districts prioritized for action, inform interventions needed 78 districts had a very high level of stunting, 19 had high, and 3 had medium levels among children under 5-years of in the 100 Districts age. Assessment of the food security situation in the priority districts shows that availability of food is sufficient, while prioritized to reduce stunting access to food and utilization of food remain a challenge. Availability of food staples was adequate in most of the districts. Access to clean drinking water, essential for food utilization and safe absorption of food, was below the national average in the 100 priority Districts, with 40.8% of households without clean drinking water. Economic access to food also remains a challenge for low and middle- expenditure groups. The poverty level was found to be higher than the national average in the 100 priority Districts in 2016. In the first 8 priority Districts, households in low and middle-expenditure deciles allocated more than half of their expenditure to food. Cereals constituted the largest share of food expenditure for low and middle income households, exceeding 20% of food expenditure. Despite spending most of their income on food, food consumption among the low and middle-expenditure households was inadequate. Protein and energy intake of the most economically vulnerable households was well below adequate. On the other hand, the wealthiest households reached the recommended levels, both for protein and energy intake. Inadequate protein and energy intake, combined with a high share of expenditure on cereals among lower- and middle-wealth groups indicate households struggle to afford an adequate diet. The analysis suggests that the high cost of cereals is hampering access to a more diverse and nutritious diet, and ultimately might be contributing to the high malnutrition rates. Lack of access to clean drinking water can also hinder safe food consumption and absorption of nutrients, and contribute to high malnutrition levels. 3 Introduction Table of contents List of maps and analyses This is the last of a series of monitoring bulletins on 1. Part 1: Update on climate, 1. Rainfall anomaly November 2017 the impact of weather extremes on food security and disasters and crops 2. Rainfall rate November 2017 seasonal topics related to food security in Indonesia 2. Part 2: Climate outlook in 2017. The previous bulletins are available online: 3. Floods and landslides in 2017 3. Part 3: Food security in the 100 http://bmkg.go.id/iklim/buletin-iklim.bmkg 4. Paddy harvesting progress in priority districts to reduce stunting. https://www.wfp.org/content/indonesia-food-security- 2017 monitoring-2015) 5. Climate outlook January- March In the first section of this issue, an update on 2018 climate, disasters and crops is presented. 6. Food security situation in the 100 The next section presents the climate outlook for priority districts for stunting January to March 2018. reduction The special topic presented in last section of this 7. Malnutrition rate in the 100 in the issue focuses on food security situation in the 100 100 priority districts Districts prioritized for programmes to reduce high 8. Food consumption and patterns levels of stunting, an initiative launched by the Vice in the first 8 priority districts President of the Republic of Indonesia. The food security situation in the 100 districts is examined, 9. Food access in the 100 priority with an in-depth assessment of consumption and districts expenditure patterns in the first 8 districts, where the 10. Food expenditure patterns in the programme already started in 2017. first 8 priority districts 11. Food utilization in the 100 priority districts 4 PART 1 Update: Climate, disasters and crops Wetter than normal In November 2017, more than 85 percent of the country was in the rainy season. Most of Indonesia received high rainfall with some localized very high rainfall, especially across the rainy season. northwest of Sumatera, Central Kalimantan and Papua. La Niña usually brings wetter than normal precipitation and heavy rains. With weak to moderate La Niña conditions affecting the region throughout November, total precipitation during November was higher than normal. Eastern parts of Indonesia, DI Yongyakarta, and central parts of Sumatera island received double the normal rainfall levels. RAINFALL ANOMALY | Percent of Average, November 2017 5 November event: Cempaka Monthly precipitation across Java in November 2015 to 2017, compared to the long-term average (mm) cyclone 600 488.75 500 441.349 378.724 405.705 423.547 In November 2017, cyclone Cempaka hit south-eastern 400 338.53 344.901 parts of Java island, bringing strong winds and heavy 300 289.48 rainfall. In East Java and Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta 188.952 200 175.709 201.457 provinces, the precipitation in November was more than 141.476 100 double the normal rainfall received during this time of the 0 year. The cyclone led to widespread floods, localized Jawa Tengah Jawa Timur Jawa Barat DI Yogyakarta DKI Jakarta Banten landslides, causing damages and destruction. 2015 2016 2017 Average Rainfall rate | November 2017 6 Abnormally high rainfall levels since mid-2016 led to an unusually high number of floods and An unusually high landslides, compared to the long-term average. number of floods and Between January and November 2017, 729 flood events were recorded, exceeding the long-term landslides continued annual average of 555 flood events. Similarly, there were 1.5 times more landslides this year until November, compared to the long-term average. to affected Indonesia. The high floods and landslides led to high infrastructure and human losses: 1,959 houses were heavily damaged, 221 people died or remain missing and 287people were injured. Comparing rainfall and floods in 2016, 2017 and the 10-year average Comparing landslide events in 2016, 2017 and the 10-year average RAINFALL, LONG-TERM-AVERAGE compared to 2017 338 10-year 320 2016 2017 311 average 297 293 Jan 60 36 83 250 249 301 Feb 49 88 126 284 236 236 242 273 272 227 Mar 37 93 45 259 Apr 33 47 72 238 244 FLOOD EVENTS, LONG-TERM 222 May 27 22 41 AVERAGE compared to 2016 and 2017 196 Jun 19 28 29 180 166 168 Jul 14 40 15 143 Aug 8 18 7 99 Sep 8 76 21 81 84 68 Oct 12 78 66 62 60 30 29 28 39 Nov 32 108 67 Dec 40 67 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Agu Sep Okt Nov Des Total 339 701 Data: BNPB DIBI Data: BNPB DIBI, WFP 7 Data on historical flood Flood Events | based on 3-days rainfall September – November 2017 events are usually received through reports by field officers. An alternative data source, based on remote sensing data, independent from field presence, provides an opportunity to improve coverage of flood events and triangulate the existing evidence. Any heavy rainfall can cause flooding. The map on the right shows an indicative extreme flood area between September and November 2017, estimated through an innovative analysis of satellite data on rainfall. Indicative flood events are estimated using 3-days consecutive rainfall above a threshold defined by the long-term historical daily rainfall data for specific flood return period.