South West Illawarra Rail Link Directed research: Assessing the economic impacts of better connecting the Illawarra to Greater Sydney and the Western Sydney Aerotropolis Research Partners: partners 2 | South West Illawarra Rail Link South West Illawarra Rail Link About this document Document Research Report Title South West Illawarra Rail Link (SWIRL) Assessing the economic impacts of better connecting the Illawarra to Greater Sydney and the Western Sydney Aerotropolis Prepared For Illawarra First, supported by Wollongong City Council and Wollondilly Shire Council. About Illawarra First Illawarra First is the peak business leadership group for the region, comprising the heads of its leading organisations as part of a dialogue that incorporates senior decision-makers from across government and the private sector. Backed by a significant research fund, Illawarra First advances the region’s economic development through powerful advocacy that is supported by a rigorous evidence base. Enhanced transport connectivity is key to the region’s economic growth, and previous Illawarra First research has built a clear case for greater investment in key road and rail projects. SMART Infrastructure has been commissioned to undertake this follow-up research project to the 2017 rail study that will ascertain the benefits to be realised through greater connectivity between the communities - and the economies - of the Illawarra and south- western Sydney. Date 1 October 2020 Contact Snr Prof Pascal Perez Director, SMART Infrastructure Facility, University of Wollongong Email: [email protected] Mr Adam Zarth Executive Director, Illawarra Business Chamber Email: [email protected] Acknowledgements SMART would like to acknowledge the contribution of the Illawarra Business Chamber, specifically Adam Zarth and James Newton. Publication Details Perez, P., Hendrigan, C., Heitor, A., Brown, T., Campbell, G., McCusker, A., Anzanpour, S. University of Wollongong, Stanley, P., george stanley consulting (2020): South West Illawarra Rail Link (SWIRL) Assessing the economic impacts of better connecting the Illawarra to Greater Sydney and the Western Sydney Aerotropolis. South West Illawarra Rail Link Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary 1 2 Building the Evidence 5 2.1 Background 5 2.2 Rationale 6 2.3 The SWIRL Solution 11 2.4 SWIRL Options 12 2.5 Cost Benefit Appraisal 15 2.6 Alternative Solutions 18 3 Recommendations 22 4 References 23 5 Appendices 24 5.1 SWIRL CBA (2017 report) 24 5.1.1 Benefits relating to rail freight services 24 5.1.2 Benefits relating to passenger services 24 5.1.3 Cost Benefit Appraisal Methodology 25 5.2 Road and Rail Freight Task to 2056 26 5.3 Geotechnical Assessment 28 5.3.1 Maldon-Dombarton Line 28 5.4 Tunnelling 32 5.5 Ventilation 33 5.6 Tunnel Case Studies 34 5.6.1 Gotthard Base Tunnel 34 5.6.2 Airport Rail Line 34 5.6.3 Melbourne-Brisbane Inland Rail Alignment Tunnels 34 5.6.4 Caracas Metro 34 5.7 Technical Conclusions 34 5.8 Simplified Geotechnical Model for the Avon Tunnel 36 South West Illawarra Rail Link List of Figures Figure 1 Options 2 Figure 2 Infrastructure Priority List 2020 – Priority Initiative ‘Freight Rail Access to Port Kembla’ (IA 2020). Dashed red link added by authors to represent the “alternative rail alignment to the port”. 6 Figure 3 Spatial distribution of number of jobs and active workers; 2016 baseline, 2041 Business as Usual (BAU) and Economic Development Strategy (EDS) scenarios; Illawarra (left) and Wollondilly (right) (sources: ABS, NSW-DPI, WCC and WSC) 7 Figure 4 Spatial distribution of daily commuters and transport modes; 2016 baseline, 2041 Business as Usual (BAU) and Economic Development Strategy (EDS) scenarios; Illawarra (left) and Wollondilly (right) (sources: ABS, TfNSW, NSW-DPI, WCC and WSC) 8 Figure 5 Distribution of inbound, outbound and local freight according to transport mode and commodity (in million tonnes) (source: TfNSW) 10 Figure 6 Maldon-Dombarton corridor; SWIRL original alignment (source: SMART, 2020) 11 Figure 7 SWIRL-St Marys corridor, joining West Dapto, Wilton and Western Parkland growth areas. 12 Figure 8 Commuters by mode of travel 14 Figure 9 Impact of SWIRL-St Marys on commuting from the Illawarra region and the Wollondilly Shire to Eastern and Western Sydney by 2041 (source: SMART, 2020) 14 Figure 10 Approach to cost-benefit analysis 15 Figure 11 Outer Sydney Orbital proposed corridor (source: TfNSW) 20 Figure 12 North South Rail LIne corridor (source: TfNSW) 21 Figure 13 Western Sydney Freight Line corridor (source: TfNSW) 22 Figure 14 Road Freight Task 27 Figure 15 Rail Freight Task 28 Figure 16: Regional Surface geology: Maldon-Dombarton line (noted in red) 29 Figure 17: Area 3 of Illawarra Coal with Maldon-Dombarton line (noted in red) 30 Figure 18 Simplified geotechnical model for the Avon tunnel 34 South West Illawarra Rail Link Glossary ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics BAU Business as Usual BCR Benefit Cost Ratio CBA Cost Benefit Appraisal CFD Computational Fluid Dynamics EDS Economic Development Strategy IBC Illawarra Business Chamber IA Infrastructure Australia INSW Infrastructure NSW ISD Illawarra Statistical District MSL Main South Line MWL Main Western Line NFP National Fire Protection NPV Net Present Value NSRL North South Rail Line OSO Outer Sydney Orbital ROI Return on Investment SMART Simulation Modelling Analysis Research Teaching SMEC Snowy Mountains Engineering Corporation SWIRL South West Illawarra Rail Link TBM Tunnel Boring Machines TEU Twenty-Foot Equivalent Unit (a standard-size shipping container) TfNSW Transport for NSW WCC Wollongong City Council WSA Western Sydney Airport WSC Wollondilly Shire Council WSFL Western Sydney Freight Line South West Illawarra Rail Link | 1 1 Executive Summary In 2017 Illawarra First commissioned the University of However, doubling job creation within the Illawarra (up to 1% Wollongong’s SMART Infrastructure Facility to undertake a p.a.), would limit the number of commuters to 32,000 by 2041. comprehensive study of the limitations of the Illawarra’s rail Similarly, Wollondilly Shire’s Economic Development Strategy3, network. assumes that a BAU scenario would result in 33,000 workers travelling daily to Western Sydney by 2041, compared to 14,000 The report entitled ‘Upgrading rail connectivity between commuters in 2016. Under a ‘New Future’ scenario, involving Illawarra and Sydney’ 1 identified measures to improve speed better road and rail connectivity, Wollondilly Shire aims for an and reliability of rail connectivity between the Illawarra and additional 10,000 jobs by 2041, reducing its job deficit from 73% Sydney and detailed how rail connectivity constraints impact the to 65% only. region’s economy. The regional economic uplift, as a result of better road and The South West Illawarra Rail Link (SWIRL) was identified as rail connectivity (including SWIRL) would contribute to an the most cost-effective freight and passenger solution to the additional 17,500 jobs in the Illawarra region and Wollondilly region’s constraints on a cost-benefit basis; utilising the rail Shire, reducing the deficit in economic investment by $892 corridor and partially constructed Maldon-Dombarton Line that million p.a. by 2041. was abandoned in the 1980s. Reducing the loss of productivity due to transport inefficiencies This report extends that research to consider the socio-economic around the Greater Sydney Area has been a high priority for impact of the SWIRL on the broader region, including the future Infrastructure NSW4 and Transport for NSW (TfNSW)5. Based Western Parkland City and the Wollondilly Shire. It also seeks to on ABS Census 2016, Sydney Trains timetables, bespoke rail address alternative passenger and freight proposals, as well as modelling6 and Google Traffic figures, we have been able to the feasibility of engineering and other logistical elements of the breakdown daily commuting flows by transport mode (car or SWIRL. train), as well as broad travel origins and destinations for the Illawarra and the Wollondilly Shire. Using a 2016 baseline, the BAU and EDS scenarios show that an additional passenger rail link Addressing Regional Challenges between Wollongong and St Marys, via Wilton, could potentially take 18,500 daily commuters from the road network by 2041. SMART have identified three key challenges to overcome in order On average, passengers would experience a 15-20 minute faster to create a thriving socio-economic growth corridor between journey to Western Sydney compared with current road trip. Western Sydney and the Illawarra region: Overall, a passenger rail link between Wollongong, Wilton • Reducing local job deficits in the Illawarra and the and St Marys could result in a productivity gain of Wollondilly Shire through better connectivity; $73 million p.a. due to faster commuting time by 2041. • Reducing commuting time between the Illawarra, the Geotechnical constraints and industrial legacies have shaped the Wollondilly Shire and Western Sydney; current transport network between the Illawarra and the Greater • Increasing the regional freight capacity to unlock Port Sydney Area. It consists of four road corridors (Macquarie Pass, Kembla’s potential. Picton Road, Appin Road and the M1 Motorway) and two rail corridors (Moss Vale-Unanderra Line and South Coast Line). Most Better connectivity to Greater Sydney, and more specifically experts agree that road freight demand needs to be curbed the future Western Parkland City, is recognised as a major for safety and environmental issues,