Energy Strategy 1 Energy Realpolitik: Towards a Sustainable Energy Strategy W. Udo Schröder Departments of Chemistry and Physics University of Rochester, Rochester, N.Y. 14627 [email protected] Abstract A long-term strategy based on existing technological, ecological, economical, and geopolitical realities is urgently needed to develop a sustainable energy economy, which should be designed with adaptability to unpredicted changes in any of these aspects. While only a highly diverse energy portfolio and conservation can ultimately guarantee optimum sustainability, based on a comparison of current primary energy generation methods, it is argued that future energy strategy has to rely heavily on expanded coal and nuclear energy sectors. A comparison of relative potentials, merits and risks asso- ciated with fossil-fuel, renewable, and nuclear technologies suggests that the balance of technologies should be shifted in favor of new-generation, safe nuclear methods to pro- duce electricity, while clean-coal plants should be reassigned to transportation fuel. Novel nuclear technologies exploit fission of uranium and thorium as primary energy sources with fast-spectrum and transmutation (burner) reactors. A closed fuel cycle and waste transmutation resolve the strategic issues associated with nuclear power. Innova- tive reactor designs use spallation of heavy metals in subcritical accelerator driven sys- tems or molten-salt reactors. Importation and reconstruction of technical expertise al- ready lost and aversion of further erosion are preconditions to any successful energy strategy. Research opportunities to perfect innovative nuclear, coal, and renewable energy technologies should be pursued. Keywords: sustainable energy economy, clean coal and advanced nuclear energy systems Introduction sources adds reason to be concerned about the As the Earth's population and its aspira- degree to which goals of national energy inde- pendence and security can be approached. Pro- tions for a healthier and more prosperous stan- posed energy strategies lead to the conclusion dard of living grow, requirements of conti- that the production ideals stated above are vir- nuous, clean and environmentally sustainable tually unattainable. In particular, the U.S. frac- primary energy production increase dramatical- tion (25%) of total world energy consumption ly. Typical estimates envision the global demand has to decline significantly. Therefore, parallel to increase from 12 TW today, 85% of which is strategic action is needed to achieve significant fossil-fueled, to more than 45TW by mid- reduction in energy demand, a much improved century. Earth’s dwindling energy resources and energy distribution infrastructure (grid), and insufficient basic energy infrastructure give am- new energy R&D. Within this framework, a sus- ple reason to doubt that such enormous de- tainable strategy for generating primary energy mands could actually be satisfied. Increasing in- is crucial, one which ternational competition for access to energy re- 2 Energy Strategy has good prospects to satisfy a variable mix ciple, be satisfied by electricity supplied by the of energy demandsby flexible response; grid, the prevalent transportation fleet largely enhances energy independence; requires fuel in convenient onboard packages, takes into account existing infrastructure presently realized by liquid fuels with high and its evolutionary inertia; energy (caloric) density. To maintain such com- is largely independent of future technolo- plexity under future variable external conditions gical breakthroughs; and requires a highly flexible domestic energy infra- is acceptable to the public. structure based on a diverse set of primary energy sources. In practice, this goal can be rea- It follows from these principles that in the pa- lized only in stages. lette of energy technologies those primary The public has been sensitized to aspects of energy resources should be developed with energy scarcity and environmental problems by highest priority that rising oil and gas prices, widely publicized sce- 1. are domestically abundant and economi- narios of impending climatic changes, and evi- cally accessible with current technologies, dently insufficient urban air quality. But it has 2. tie in with existing distribution networks, largely been left unaware of the technological 3. satisfy a steady base load demand, boundary conditions imposed on a realistic, 4. are safe to produce and use, flexible and sustainable energy strategy and its 5. are adaptable to a variety of fuel demands, coupling to the existing economic infrastruc- 6. minimize the release of pollutants. ture. The following outlines and puts in perspective Well publicized issues associated with fossil aspects of a long-term strategy for securing a or nuclear fuel based energy alternatives in- reliable primary energy economy, realizing clude the limited availability of the primary fu- modern nuclear and “clean-coal” technologies, els, the environmental impact and risks in min- which appear to be the only serious contenders ing and transport, and other hazards associated for the task. with plant security and operations. Major objec- tions to these technologies relate to the dispo- sition of toxic and GHG waste produced by fossil Task definition and background fuel burners and of the long-lived radio-toxins generated by nuclear power plants. The media he basic energy supply task faced by in- T have played a pernicious role in social amplifica- dustrialized and developing nations alike is tion of some of these concerns, specifically con- complicated by simultaneous calls for an overall cerning radiation, supporting irrational atti- limitation, and even a reduction, in the asso- tudes. The opposite is required, a sober look at ciated output of “greenhouse gases” (GHG). the available alternatives. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases, most impor- A number of popular science book publica- tantly carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), ni- tions (e.g., Gore, 2006, Morris, 2006) as well as tric gases (NOx, x = 1, 2), and chlorofluorocar- public initiatives and promotions leave the im- bons (CFC), but also water vapor (H2O), are sus- pression that the looming energy/climate crisis pected to influence the global climate in an un- is solvable by harnessing increasing amounts of desirable way, thereby harming the biosphere renewable hydroelectric, wind, solar, geother- and threatening specifically human civilizations. mal and biomass energy sources, which are said Additional complexity arises from the fact that to be available, virtually free and ecologically mobile and stationary energy consuming sec- benign. Supposedly, renewable energy technol- tors of most economies require different ap- ogies will be able to displace those based on proaches in terms of primary and secondary fossil and nuclear fuels, which are deemed eco- energy carriers and distribution networks. logically disastrous and therefore to be phased While stationary energy demands can, in prin- out. Energy Strategy 3 Discussion in the present article supports a to account the energy infrastructure already ex- different and more realistic view promoted to isting in industrial nations, a responsible energy some extent also by other studies of possible strategy for the medium term of the next few and desirable energy futures (Hoffert, 2002, a mix of existing Deutch, 2003, Romm, 2005). The aim of such primary energy technologies, but further devel- studies is to assess and inform government op and refine them. In this mix, efficient tech- energy policies in the U.S. and other industria- nologies based on domestically abundant fossil lized countries around the world. There are and nuclear fuels would necessarily dominate. several fundamental and practical reasons for Although the long-range potential of fusion insisting on energy Realpolitik, i.e., a responsi- energy technology is important for future gen- ble energy policy oriented at present reality, a erations, few energy experts expect that a prac- goal of maximum flexibility and realistic short tical fusion energy power plant can be commis- term extrapolations in feasibility. sioned long before the end of this century On the fundamental level, it has been (IFEO, 2004). In the interest of developing long- known since the latter half of the 20th century term diversity, research and development of that complex or “emerging,” strongly coupled, renewable fuel technologies derived from hy- multi-dimensional systems show a non-linear drodynamic (water) flow, solar radiation, wind, overall response to changes in certain variables, geothermal, or biomass, should be encouraged notably the so-called order parameters. Simple but not relied upon before proven maturity. mathematical models illustrate (e.g., Mainzer, It is therefore safe to conclude that the lion 1997) how predictable (orderly) behavior ob- share of any future growth in energy use will served for certain domains of order parame- likely be covered by fossil fuel power plants ter(s) can suddenly switch to unpredictable burning coal and, to a decreasing extent, oil and (chaotic) dynamics, once parameters exceed natural gas (Deutch, 2003, Romm, 2005). Con- certain domain boundaries. ventional (fission) nuclear power contributing Even a minimalistic view has to admit that now 20% worldwide to electricity generation the global climate and national (or global) eco- is seen (Deutch et al, 2003) to increase its share nomics (Krugman, 1996, Schweitzer, 2002) be- to at least 30% within