I SSUE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE & 8 E SECURITY PROJECT REPORT NVIRONMENTAL ISSUE NO. 8 • THE WOODROW WILSON CENTER • SUMMER 2002 COMMENTARIES C What is to be Done at Johannesburg? HANGE Issues for the World Summit on Sustainable Development AND ARTICLES S Population, Poverty, and Vulnerability: Mitigating the Effects ECURITY of Natural Disasters George Martine and Jose Miguel Guzman P Migration, Population Change, and the Rural Environment ROJECT Richard E. Bilsborrow The Future of Environmental Security R Security and Ecology in the Age of Globalization EPORT Simon Dalby In Defense of Environment and Security Research Richard A. Matthew S UMMER SPECIAL REPORT Fire and Water: Technologies, Institutions, and Social Issues 2002 in Arms Control and Transboundary Water-Resources Agreements Elizabeth L. Chalecki, Peter H. Gleick, Kelli L. Larson, Arian L. Pregenzer, and Aaron T. Wolf The University of Michigan Plus: Reviews of New Publications, Official Statements, Population Fellows Programs ECSP Meeting Summaries, Organizational Updates, This publication is made possible through support provided by the Office of Population, U.S. Agency for International Development, and and Bibliography the University of Michigan, under the terms of Grant No. HRN-A-00-00-00001. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Agency for International Development, the University of Michigan, or the Woodrow Wilson Center. 89958mvpR3_Cover.p65 1 8/16/02, 11:18 AM The Woodrow Wilson International Center for ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SECURITY PROJECT REPORT Scholars, located in the Ronald Reagan Building in the heart of Washington D.C., was founded in 1968 by Congress as the nation’s memorial to President Woodrow Wilson. Through its THE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SECURITY PROJECT (ECSP) EDITOR renowned fellows program and a range of Geoffrey D. Dabelko regional and functional programmatic Population growth. Water scarcity. Degraded ecosystems. Resource depletion. Lee H. Hamilton, Director activities, the non-partisan center fosters MANAGING EDITOR Forced migration. Pandemic disease. Since 1994, the Environmental Change scholarship and dialogue in the humanities and BOARD OF TRUSTEES Robert Lalasz and Security Project has explored the connections among these major challenges Joseph B. Gildenhorn, Chairman the social sciences. As such, The Wilson Center as well as their links to conflict, human insecurity, and foreign policy. Through Steven Alan Bennett, Vice Chairman PRODUCTION EDITOR serves as an ideal meeting place for scholars and its meetings, its publications, its comprehensive Web site, and the original re- Richard E. Thomas practitioners of widely divergent ideological EX OFFICIO MEMBERS: search carried out by its staff and scholars, ECSP serves as an information and professional backgrounds. Meetings are The Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, The Librarian of clearinghouse on these issues, and creates special programming and publica- Congress James H. Billington, The Archivist of the United CONTRIBUTING EDITORS marked by free intellectual exchange, reflecting a tradition of bringing together Timothy Hildebrandt tions and encourages dialogue among scholars, policymakers, and States John W. Carlin, The Chairman of the National people who differ in discipline, profession, and nationality, but who share an Jennifer Kaczor nongovernmental organizations. Its two annual journals, The Environmental Endowment for the Humanities Bruce Cole, The Secretary interest in a subject and in having their views challenged in lively debate. The of the Smithsonian Institution Lawrence M. Small, The Ariel Méndez Change and Security Project Report and The China Environment Series, are read Wilson Center is directed by The Honorable Lee H. Hamilton and its Board Secretary of Education Roderick R. Paige, The Secretary of Jennifer L. Turner by over 7,000 policymakers, practitioners, journalists, scholars, and interested Health & Human Services Tommy G. Thompson. of Directors is chaired by Joseph B. Gildenhorn. Prior to becoming Director, citizens. ECSP is directed by Geoffrey D. Dabelko and is housed in the Wilson RESEARCH STAFF Lee Hamilton served for thirty–four years as a United States Congressman RIVATE ITIZEN EMBERS Center’s Division of International Studies, headed by Robert S. Litwak. P C M : Matthew Corso from Indiana. He served as a member of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Joseph A. Cari, Jr., Carol Cartwright, John H. Foster, Naomi Greengrass now the Committee on International Relations, for his entire tenure. Jean L. Hennessey, Daniel L. Lamaute, Doris O. Olga Levitsky ECSP is supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development Office of Matsui, Thomas R. Reedy, Nancy M. Zirkin Population through a cooperative agreement with the University of Michigan Director’s Forums THE WILSON COUNCIL ADVISORY COMMITTEE Population Fellows Programs. ECSP and its China Environment Forum also Diane Aboulafia-D’Jaen, Charles S. Ackerman, B. receive support from the Carnegie Copration of New York, the W. Alton Jones B. Andersen, Cyrus A. Ansary, Charles F. Barber, Thomas E. Lovejoy, Co-Chair The Director’s Forums are series of public lectures hosted by Lee H. Hamilton. Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the U.S. Institute of Lawrence E. Bathgate II, Joseph C. Bell, Esq., World Bank Aimed at business executives and policymakers, these forums focus on the Peace, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and U.S. Department of A. Oakley Brooks, Charles W. Burson, Conrad P.J. Simmons, Co-Chair work of pre-eminent scholars, business, and government leaders with speeches Agriculture. Cafritz, Nicola L. Caiola, Raoul L. Carroll, Scott Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on such universal human questions as community, globalization, governance, Carter, Albert V. Casey, Peter B. Clark, William T. John Bongaarts efficiency, and democratic decisionmaking. Recent speakers have included Coleman, Michael D. DiGiacomo, F. Samuel The Wilson Center, established by Congress in 1968 as a memorial to the nation’s Eberts III, J. David Eller, Sim Farar, Susan R. The Population Council South African Ambassador to U.S. Makate Sheila Sisulu; former Secretary of tweny-eighth president, fosters scholarship and intellectual exchange among Farber, Barbara Hackman Franklin, Morton Judith Bruce Defense Bill Cohen; former Puerto Rican Governor Pedro Rossello; former scholars and practitioners. It sponsors an international fellows program, has an Funger, Gregory Gallo, Chris G. Gardiner, Eric The Population Council Korean Minister of Finance Hun-Jai Lee; and several former National Security Garfinkel, Bruce S. Gelb, Gordon D. Giffin, independent Board of Trustees (composed of ten citizens appointed by the Presi- Jose Maria Figueres Advisers. Stephen J. Gilbert, Alma Gildenhorn, David F. Former President of Costa Rica dent of the United States and nine government officials—including the Secretary Girard-diCarlo, Michael B. Goldberg, William E. Grayson, Raymond A. Guenter, Gerland T. David Gergen of State), is non-partisan, and does not take positions on any public policy is- “The Director’s Forums provide a unique opportunity for Wilson Center Halpin, Edward L. Hardin, Jr., Carla A. Hills, Eric The Newshour with Jim Lehrer sues. The Center is directed by the Honorable Lee H. Hamilton and its Board friends, scholars, and staff to hear leading public officials discuss current Hotung, Frances Humphrey Howard, John L. Jack A. Goldstone of Directors is chaired by Jospeh B. Gildenhorn. policy issues and to engage in a dialogue with them. These discussions and Howard, Darrell E. Issa, Jerry Jasinowski, Brenda University of California, Davis interactions between the speaker and audience are lively and informative and LaGrange Johnson, Shelly Kamins, Edward W. Thomas F. Homer-Dixon a key part of the legacy left to us by President Wilson.” Kelley, Jr., Anastasia D. Kelly, Christopher J. Kennan, Michael V. Kostiw, Steven Kotler, Paul University of Toronto SUBMISSIONS AND CORRESPONDENCE - Lee H. Hamilton Kranhold, William H. Kremer, Denny LeVett, Robert L. Hutchings Harold O. Levy, David Link, David S. Mandel, Princeton University The Environmental Change and Security Project Report is sent free of charge John P. Manning, Edwin S. Marks, Jay Mazur, Donald Kennedy throughout the world. Contact the Project at the address below to be placed on Robert McCarthy, Stephen G. 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