Introduction to Geostatistics IntroductionPGE337, Spring 2019 to Geostatistics PGE337, Spring 2019 Unique Number: 18980 SYLLABUS Instructor Zoya Heidari, Ph.D. Associate Professor The University of Texas at Austin Hildebrand Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Office: CPE 5.108 Telephone: (512) 471-7218 E-mail: [email protected] Instructor Office Hours Students are encouraged to use office hours during the semester. The instructor’s office hours are as follows: Group Office hours: Mondays 4:30 PM – 6:00 PM Location: CPE 5.126 or CPE 5.108 Office hours: Wednesdays 4:30 PM – 6:00 PM Location: CPE 5.108 The instructor encourages all students to attend group office hours to benefit from the discussions and learn from their peers. Additional office hours can be scheduled in advance upon request from students depending on instructor’s availability. Technical discussions and questions by e-mail should be kept at a minimum. The instructor will not answer e-mails on weekends, holidays, or after 6:00 PM on week days. Course Description This course is an introduction to Geostatistics, which includes basic concepts of statistics and probability with focus on Geoscience applications such as modeling spatial variability, formation characterization, and uncertainty analysis. The topics covered in the course include basic probability and statistics, study of correlated variables, statistical interpolation and simulation, global optimization, linear and nonlinear regression, time series, spatial analysis and modeling (e.g., variogram analysis, kriging), and uncertainty quantification. Emphasis is on the ways the results of these procedures are related to geology, formation evaluation, and fluid flow. The students will learn the application of statistics in characterization of spatial heterogeneity, which has applications in production planning, formation evaluation, and reservoir characterization. Credit: 3 hours Prerequisites: Mathematics 408D or 408M, and Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering 310 with a grade of at least C- in each. Students are expected to have basic knowledge in mathematics, physics, and basic geology. Page 1 of 13 Introduction to Geostatistics PGE337, Spring 2019 Class Schedule Lecture: Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM Location: CPE 2.210 Course Website, CANVAS All the homework assignments, homework solutions, lecture notes, and project assignments will be posted on the CANVAS website designed for this course. Students are responsible to check their e-mails and the course website at least once a day for announcements and any required action for the course. Teaching Assistants Chelsea Newgord E-mail: [email protected] Office hours: Tuesdays, 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM (Subject to change) Fridays, 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM (Subject to change) Location: 3.172D Laura Hernandez E-mail: [email protected] Office hours: Tuesdays, 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM (Subject to change) Thursdays, 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM (Subject to change) Location: 3.172D Responsibilities of the teaching assistants include: a. Helping students with conceptual and technical questions. b. Guiding students in homework and project assignments. c. Helping students in the preparation for exams. d. Helping students in using Python/Matlab for homework and project assignments. Suggested References Geostatistics: • Chiles, J. P. and Delfiner, P., 1999, Geostatistics-Modeling Spatial Uncertainty. Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics. • Trauth, M. H., 2015, MATLAB Recipes for Earth Sciences. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. • Isaacs, E. H. and Srivastava, R. M., 1989, An Introduction to Applied Geostatistics. Oxford University Press. • Jensen, J. R., Lake, L. W., Corbett P. M. W., and Goggin, D. J., 2000, Statistics for Petroleum Engineers and Geoscientists, Elsevier. • Kelkar, M. and Perez, G., 2002, Applied Geostatistics for Reservoir Characterization. Society of Petroleum Engineers. • McKillup, S. and Dyar, M. D., 2010, Geostatistics Explained: An Introductory Guide for Earth Scientists. Cambridge University Press. • Middleton, G., 2000, Data Analysis in the Earth Sciences using Matlab. Prentice Hall Inc. • James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T., and Tibshirani, R., 2017, An Introduction to Statistical Learning: with Applications in R. Springer. Page 2 of 13 Introduction to Geostatistics PGE337, Spring 2019 Suggested references for Introduction to Statistics: • Dekking, F. M., Kraaikamp, C., Lopuhaa, H. P., and Meester L. E., 2007, A Modern Introduction to Probability and Statistics Understanding Why and How. Springer-Verlag. • Casella, G. and Berger, R. L., 2002, Statistical Inference. Duxbury, Thomson Learning. • Peebles, P. Z., 1980, Probability, Random Variables and random Signal Principles. McGraw-Hill Book Company • Agresti, A. and Franklin C. A., 2011 (3rd edition), Statistics: The Art and Science of Learning from Data. Pearson. Note: Students are not required to purchase any of these references. Additional Instructional Materials • The instructor will distribute field examples in the class or on the course website. • The instructor will upload computational codes used for class practice on the course website. • Additional reading assignments and references will be uploaded on the course website. • Students are required to have i>clickers for this class. Handouts and Class PowerPoint Presentations PowerPoint presentations will be posted on the course website in PDF format. The instructor will not print and distribute the PowerPoint presentations in the class. Additional handouts might be distributed in the class. Handouts including field examples will not be posted on the course website. Grading Policy The distribution of the final grade will be as follows: Item Weight (%) Due Date Location Homework Assignments 15 Wednesdays before 11:00 PM CANVAS Pop quizzes 5 CPE 2.210 Midterm Exam No. 1 15 Monday, February 18, 2019 at 6:00 PM CPE 2.210 Midterm Exam No. 2 15 Wednesday, March 27, 2019 at 6:00 PM CPE 2.212 Midterm Exam No. 3 15 Monday, April 22, 2019 at 6:00 PM CPE 2.210 Final Exam 35 Saturday, May 18, 2019, 2:00 PM – 5:00 PM TBA Please check the location of the final exam Total 100 The cutoff values for assigning letter grades (plus/minus grading system) will be decided by the instructor after the final exam. Page 3 of 13 Introduction to Geostatistics PGE337, Spring 2019 Course Objectives and Outcomes At the end of the course, students will be able to: • Characterize formations using statistical approaches where access to deterministic models is limited • Understand the benefits and limitations of stochastic modeling • Apply statistics in characterizing spatial heterogeneity • Understand basic concepts in probability and univariate, bivariate, multivariate statistics and spatial relationship, covariance and correlation, and regression and curve fitting • Understand the basics of confidence tests • Apply variogram analysis, spatial estimation, kriging, and uncertainty analysis • Evaluate time series • Integrate geostatistical methods and geological information to analyze subsurface data • Evaluate estimation errors in reservoir properties Topical Outline 1. Introduction to Geostatistics and Course Policies 2. Fundamentals of Statistics and Probability 3. Univariate Statistics a. Basic Data Analysis and Display b. Hypothesis Tests c. Measures of Heterogeneity 4. Bivariate Statistics a. Correlation Coefficient b. Regression and Curve Fitting c. Cross Validation 5. Time Series Analysis 6. Spatial Data Analysis and Modeling a. Variogram Analysis b. Kriging and Co-Kriging 7. Uncertainty Analysis 8. Optional: Introduction to Classification and Machine Leaning Methods Course Policies • Class Attendance: Students are expected to attend every session of the class. Always bring your i>clickers, laptops, and calculators to the class. There is always the possibility of having pop quizzes and solving examples in the class, which will not be repeated later. • Team Work and Individual Performance: Collaboration on examinations and assignments is forbidden except when specifically authorized. See Policy on Academic Integrity (http://deanofstudents.utexas.edu/sjs/acint_student.php). Homework assignments should be submitted individually. However, group homework and project assignments are team exercises. Collaboration within teams is required. Collaboration between teams is forbidden except when specifically authorized. Team Page 4 of 13 Introduction to Geostatistics PGE337, Spring 2019 reports will be assigned a team grade. Students can choose their team members themselves. • Homework and Project Assignments: Homework assignments will be uploaded on the Canvas website every Wednesday. The deadline for homework assignments will be the following Wednesday before 11:00 PM. You should scan your homework assignments and upload them on the course website. Homework assignments will be considered late if they are not turned in before 11:00 PM on the due date. Late homework assignments will not be graded. Late or not, all assignments must be turned in. Late homework assignments should be e-mailed to the TA and the instructor should be carbon copied (CC) in that e- mail. The e-mailed assignments will not be graded. A course grade of “Incomplete” might be given if any assignment is missing, and this grade will be changed only after all required work has been submitted. • Exams and pop quizzes: The students who miss any of the exams will not be given any additional exam. The final grade will be re-distributed for the students who miss the midterm exam with