BACKGROUNDER No. 3161 | OCTOBER 24, 2016 Al-Qaeda Still Threatens Europe: How the U.S. Can—and Should—Help Robin Simcox Abstract The threat to Europe from al-Qaeda is ongoing. The fact that al-Qaeda Key Points has not struck with the frequency of ISIS is a tactical, rather than stra- tegic, shift and does not reflect a diminution in the danger posed. The n Al-Qaeda is a patient and oppor- U.S. and Europe have a broad range of shared values that are threat- tunistic organization whose ened by al-Qaeda, and defeating the group should remain a top coun- resilience is often underesti- mated. The group has used the terterrorism priority for both. In order to safeguard collective secu- chaos of the so-called Arab Spring rity, the U.S. must build more capacity abroad—while taking military and Western attention on ISIS to action where necessary—in areas of strategic priority to weaken al- regenerate and strengthen. Qaeda and to ensure that the terror group is not able to present itself n Al-Qaeda’s current priority is as a viable form of alternative governance. The U.S. must also capture harnessing support from Sunnis al-Qaeda fighters in order to discover future plans, while focusing on in local conflicts over attacks in shutting down its fundraising operations. The U.S. should encour- Europe. Indiscriminate attacks age European governments to maintain surveillance on suspected al- in the West threaten this sup- Qaeda operatives and to pay particular attention to defending those port by alienating Sunnis it is accused of Islamic “blasphemy,” whom al-Qaeda has already identi- currently working alongside in fied as future targets. these conflicts. n Yet al-Qaeda will strike if pre- l-Qaeda killed more than 120 Europeans on 9/11 and has struck sented with the right opportunity. within Europe on multiple occasions since. Most recently, ter- Operations targeting those it A claims have committed supposed rorists trained by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in “blasphemy,” for example, are Yemen murdered 12 people at Charlie Hebdo magazine’s offices likely regarded as theologically in Paris. There is little doubt the group will attempt to strike at defensible and do not risk fractur- Europe again. ing local support bases. This is also the assessment of U.K. Defense Secretary Sir Michael n An effective strategy against Fallon. In an October 2016 interview with The Times of London, Sir al-Qaeda will entail kinetic Michael stated that al-Qaeda remained a “very direct threat” to operations against the group in the U.K. and Europe, and that “Al-Qaeda is still alive and kicking its regional strongholds, while addressing the circumstances there that allow the group to flour- This paper, in its entirety, can be found at http://report.heritage.org/bg3161 ish in the first place. This will have The Heritage Foundation both an ideological and practical 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20002 component. (202) 546-4400 | heritage.org Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress. BACKGROUNDER | NO. 3161 OCTOBER 24, 2016 in Afghanistan, in Syria, in Yemen and elsewhere.” al Institute in Milan as “the main al Qaeda station U.K. government sources told the same newspaper house in Europe.”2 Also vital was north London’s that “Al-Qaeda has been quietly rebuilding itself. Finsbury Park mosque, under the control of Abu They watched ISIS become the big kid on the block. Hamza al-Masri (now jailed for life by the U.S. on Al-Qaeda is biding its time. It will still be there when terrorism offenses). ISIS is done.”1 Al-Qaeda even carried out an attack on European In the wake of multiple attacks in Belgium, Ger- soil in November 1991. Paulo José de Almeida San- many, and France, there is an understandable tos (a Portugese convert to Islam) stabbed and hos- emphasis on the threat that ISIS poses to Europe. pitalized Zahir Shah, the Afghan king living in exile Yet al-Qaeda continues to flourish across parts of in Rome. Years later, an al-Qaeda plot involving an the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa, increas- ex-soccer player, Nizar Trabelsi, was afoot. Trabelsi ing the danger that Europe faces from the group in was to drive a car bomb into the canteen at Kleine the long term. While ISIS remains the most power- Brogel air base in Brussels, which housed U.S. per- ful Islamist group, it would be a severe mistake to sonnel. He was arrested on September 13, 2001. underestimate the risk from al-Qaeda. Overall, however, al-Qaeda was more concerned The U.S. can—and must—assist Europe in this about the authoritarian Middle East and North fight by keeping up the military pressure on al-Qae- African states from which much of their member- da and its affiliates in strategically important areas, ship came (the “near enemy”) and the U.S. (the “far while continuing intelligence and law enforcement enemy”). This meant that European intelligence cooperation; and by undercutting al-Qaeda’s local agencies did not view al-Qaeda and its supporters as bases of support by strengthening good governance an urgent domestic threat. in relevant regions. After all, it is from these bases Al-Qaeda’s attacks on 9/11 shook this percep- that al-Qaeda will train its next generation of recruits tion, but it took the bombings in Madrid (March able to strike in the heart of the West. The U.S. must 2004) and London (July 2005) to shatter the myth do this while showing a willingness to capture and of al-Qaeda as a non-threat once and for all.3 In interrogate al-Qaeda fighters to learn of its future total, almost 250 people were killed in these attacks. plans; strongly urging European governments not While the counter-terrorism response from Europe to pay the ransoms al-Qaeda demands for civilians it was not as aggressive as it should have been, the kidnaps; and undermining the group’s ideology. governments were not idle. Al-Qaeda plots were thwarted across Europe, while European allies sup- Context ported U.S. military efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq, In the 1990s, al-Qaeda had a strong track record provided counterterrorism training to government of recruitment in Europe. Part of the reason for this forces in Somalia, intelligence assistance for U.S. was that European governments essentially turned drone strikes on al-Qaeda targets in Yemen, and a blind eye to radical mosques in their midst. Per- took on Islamists militarily in Mali. haps most notorious from a U.S. perspective was The unfolding chaos in Syria, and then ISIS’s ter- the al-Quds Mosque in the northern German city ritorial gains throughout Iraq in the summer of 2014, of Hamburg, which served as a base for three of meant that counterterrorism priorities were shifted the 9/11 hijackers. Yet this was just one of several to this new threat. This has helped give al-Qaeda the mosques where Islamist terrorists could blend in opportunity to regroup and, ultimately, allows it the with ease. In October 2001, for example, the U.S. opportunity to pose an even greater threat to the Treasury Department labeled the Islamic Cultur- West than it did before 9/11. 1. Deborah Haynes, Hugh Tomlinson, and Tom Coghlan, “Resurgent Al-Qaeda Plots Deadly Attacks against UK and Europe,” The Times of London, October 6, 2016, http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/resurgent-al-qaeda-plots-deadly-attacks-against-uk-and-europe-6h2vb7wx8 (accessed October 11, 2016). 2. Lorenzo Vidino, “The Evolution of Jihadism in Italy: Rise in Homegrown Radicals,” CTC Sentinel, November 26, 2013, https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-evolution-of-jihadism-in-italy-rise-in-homegrown-radicals (accessed September 23, 2016). 3. Nile Gardiner and James Phillips, “The London Bombings: How the U.S. and the U.K. Should Respond,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 1871, July 21, 2005, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/07/the-london-bombings-how-the-us-and-the-uk-should-respond. 2 BACKGROUNDER | NO. 3161 OCTOBER 24, 2016 Al-Qaeda Attacks on Europe n In June 2007, two car bombs placed in central The current al-Qaeda threat to Europe can be London, including one outside a nightclub, failed broken down into five separate categories: to detonate. The next day, the perpetrators car- ried out a suicide attack against Glasgow Airport. 1. Plots in Europe directed or blessed by al-Qaeda; (Al-Qaeda in Iraq) 2. Freelancers inspired by al-Qaeda through n In April 2009, an al-Qaeda cell planning to carry Inspire magazine; out multiple suicide attacks in a shopping mall in Manchester, England, was disrupted. (Al-Qaeda, 3. Al-Qaeda’s work alongside the broader Sunni Pakistan) Islamist network; n In the summer of 2010, al-Qaeda’s plan for “Mum- 4. European targets in al-Qaeda’s regional strong- bai-style” operations across various European holds; and countries was discovered and disrupted. (Al- Qaeda, Pakistan) 5. Kidnap-for-ransom operations in the Middle East and Africa. n In December 2010, a terrorist trained in Iraq planted a car bomb and carried out a suicide 1. European Case Studies: Al-Qaeda Directed attack in Stockholm, Sweden, killing himself and or Blessed. The following attacks have either been injuring two others. (Al-Qaeda in Iraq) directed or claimed by al-Qaeda, or there is compel- ling evidence that they were blessed by the group or n In September 2011, a plan for three British Ter- one of its regional affiliates.