CHANGING TIDES HOW SEA-LEVEL RISE HARMS WILDLIFE AND RECREATION ECONOMIES ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD CHANGING TIDES: HOW SEA-LEVEL RISE HARMS WILDLIFE AND RECREATION ECONOMIES ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD 1 CHANGING TIDES HOW SEA-LEVEL RISE HARMS WILDLIFE AND RECREATION ECONOMIES ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD Copyright © 2016 National Wildlife Federation Lead Authors: Lauren Anderson, Patty Glick, Shannon Heyck-Williams, and Jim Murphy. We appreciate the work and dedication to conservation of all National Wildlife Federation staff and our 50 affiliate partners, which help make efforts like this possible. In particular, we wish to thank the following contributors to this report: Catherine Bowes, Zach Cockrum, Hilary Falk, Manley Fuller, Melissa Gaydos, Tim Gestwicki, Steve Gilbert, Jen Mihills, Eric Orff, Vanessa Peña, Ed Perry, Joshua Saks, Taj Schottland, Bruce Stein, and Ron Warnken. Brenna Goggin, Ben Gregg, Amber Hewett, Christopher Hilke, Nicole Holstein, Tara Losoff, Jim Lyon, Todd Martin, This report was made possible by the many donors and supporters of the National Wildlife Federation. Suggested citation: Anderson, L., P. Glick, S. Heyck-Williams, and J. Murphy. 2016. Changing Tides: How Sea-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and Recreation Economies along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. CoverNational image: Wildlife Federation: Washington, DC. Loggerhead sea turtle. Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. National Wildlife Federation 1990 K Street NW Washington, DC 20006 www.nwf.org 2 CHANGING TIDES: HOW SEA-LEVEL RISE HARMS WILDLIFE AND RECREATION ECONOMIES ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................. 4 EffEcts of sEa-lEvEl RisE on amERica’s East coast .................. 5 STATE IMPACTS: THE COST OF RISING SEAS IN THE SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST...................................................... 7 Southeast Region ............................................................................................................................. 7 ............................................................................................. 7 .............................................................. 9 Florida: The Everglades and Florida Keys ....................................................................... 10 Georgia: Sapelo Island and Blackbeard National Wildlife Refuge ........................................... 11 South Carolina: Santee Delta and Santee Coastal Reserve North Carolina: Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge and the Outer Banks Mid-Atlantic Region ......................................................................................................................... 12 .............................................. 12 .................................................... 14 Virginia: Chesapeake Bay and the Back Bay Island National Wildlife Refuge .................................................................................... 16 Maryland: Assateague Island and Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge ................................................................................ 17 Delaware: Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge ...................................................... 18 Pennsylvania: John Heinz National Wildlife Refuge ............................................................... 19 New Jersey: Delaware Bay and Egg Island Wildlife Management Area New York: Gateway National Recreation Area and Jamaica Bay Northeast Region ............................................................................................................................ 20 ............................................ 20 ......................................................... 21 Connecticut: Long Island Sound and Barn Island Wildlife Management Area .................................................................................. 22 Rhode Island: Ninigret Pond and Ninigret National Wildlife Refuge ....................................................................................... 23 Massachusetts: Plum Island and the Great Marsh ............................................................................................................... 23 New Hampshire: Hampton-Seabrook Estuary Maine: Acadia National Park TAKING ACTION............................................................................. 25 ....................................................................... 25 Policy Recommendations: Two Pillars for Climate Action ENDNOTES................................................................................... 29 CHANGING TIDES: HOW SEA-LEVEL RISE HARMS WILDLIFE AND RECREATION ECONOMIES ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Royal terns. Photo: Rachel Kramer. tates along the Eastern Seaboard are already as fish and waterfowl and support robust tourism and S feeling the impacts of climate change. Climate recreation economies. They also serve as natural buffers change, which is caused by the atmospheric against potentially damaging storms and, increasingly, build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHGs) against rising sea levels. As GHG emissions have increased over the last century, from fossil fuel combustion and other human activities, contributes to higher ocean temperatures (which in turn have been linked to increased intensity and warming seawater has expanded, glaciers have melted, our coasts and communities, even ones inland, are frequency of hurricanes) and sea-level rise. As such, and the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have begun to weaken and break off into the ocean. facing growing challenges from erosion, saltwater This has led to an 8 inch rise in global average sea level intrusion, and floods. These impacts have far reaching over the past century. As global temperatures continue how much and how fast sea-level rise will occur in the consequences for both natural and human communities to increase, further sea-level rise is inevitable. Exactly along the coast from Miami to Maine. Coasts are critical to wildlife and people. Communities decades to come is difficult to determine, as it depends on how much global GHG emissions will increase and how What is clear, however, is that the more GHG emissions across the region depend on coastal beaches, bays, glaciers and ice sheets will react to rising temperatures. and islands for a wide array of benefits. These unique ecosystems provide crucial habitat for wildlife such continue to increase, the higher sea level will climb. 1 CHANGING TIDES: HOW SEA-LEVEL RISE HARMS WILDLIFE AND RECREATION ECONOMIES ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD Projections for sea-level rise give reasons for the near future, by taking actions to resist impacts and adaptation concern. According to the 2014 U.S. National Climate improve coastal resilience—a strategy referred to as for sea-level rise, however, it is equally essential that we Assessment, global average sea level is estimated to . In the wake of increasingly dire projections rise another one to four feet by the end of this century, 1 with some areas seeing even greater increases due to prevent the worst outcomes by significantly reducing known as mitigation. localized factors such as land subsidence. the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions—a strategy Even at the lower end of sea-level rise projections, the To protect our communities and natural resources, we impacts on wildlife habitats and human communities could be devastating. And yet, recent science suggests should swiftly implement a two-pronged strategy of GHG emissions to slow and eventually stop the impacts that the higher-range scenario underestimates the mitigation and adaptation: 1) dramatically reduce our amount of sea-level rise we could experience. In this 2 scenario, sea levels are projected to rise by 6.6 feet of climate change, and 2) proactively prepare for Totals could reach well over that amount within a few by 2100 if drastic emission cuts are not made soon. impacts that cannot be avoided. centuries if the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melt Americans are eager for answers. At the start of 2016, 3,4 8 significantly. Recent evidence suggests this scenario is 70% of Americans believed that climate change was Consider that under a 6.6 foot sea-level rise scenario increasingly likely if GHG emissions continue to rise. occurring. As people increasingly experience the negative consequences of carbon pollution, the need for alone, large areas of coastal cities, including parts of action becomes clearer. Boston, Atlantic City, Charleston, Virginia Beach, and Miami, would be under water. In addition to sea-level rise, climate change presents storms. An increase in the frequency and intensity of another risk to our coasts: more intense and damaging linked, in part, to warmer surface water temperatures.5 Atlantic hurricanes since the early 1980s has been While projections for the future are somewhat uncertain, studies suggest that in the coming decades will increase and that the amount of rainfall associated the number of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) storms with hurricanes will be greater. Sea-level rise is exacerbating the impacts of storm surges— by allowing 6 By mid-century, the incoming domes of water to reach farther inland—a trend that is expected to continue. certain areas could experience “100-year” flooding events (i.e., that have a 1% annual chance of occurring) levels make them more likely