Look at this (fake) memo we found! Did you lose something John Katko? To: John Katko From: John Katko’s Republican Strategist (We assume) Date: February 9, 2016 RE: Endorsing a Republican Presidential Nominee (EEK!) YOU have indicated plans to endorse a Republican presidential nominee, and this memo will highlight the red flags to consider before endorsing any of the top three frontrunners – Donald Trump, Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio. In short: any of the three frontrunners will individually damage your chances at re- election this November. Donald Trump – Defending the Demagogue Red Flags: · Recent polling commissioned by YOUR Republican leadership shows that due to Trump’s inflammatory remarks and demagogic style, his nomination could sink YOUR chances at re-election Before endorsing Donald Trump, YOU should seriously consider the political fallout of being tied to his inflammatory views and attacks against large groups of the voting public, like women and Prisoners of War, and demagogic style that polling confirms is turning off voters – and could sink your own chances at re-election. According to POLITICO, House GOP polling indicated that “a plurality of respondents — 48 percent to 40 percent — would be less likely to vote for a Republican congressional candidate or incumbent if Trump were the nominee.” It is common knowledge that the rise of Trump – and the inflammatory rhetoric that he has normalized within the Republican Party – has created a nightmare political scenario for House Republicans down the ballot. We do not need to go into specifics, other than to simply flag recent polling that was conducted by our colleagues. Ted Cruz – Who House Republicans Fear (and Hate) the Most Red Flags: · Ted Cruz is by far the most conservative ideologue in the current presidential field, and possibly in modern presidential history – which places YOU in a tough position to defend his platform in our moderate district · Polling commissioned by your Republican leadership shows that Cruz produces the worst negative impact on down-ballot Republicans – somehow worse than Trump. · Most of your colleagues do not like Ted Cruz personally – which will reflect poorly on your own future aspirations Before endorsing Ted Cruz, YOU should seriously the consequences of defending Cruz’s ultra-conservative platform in our moderate district, the subsequent damage that will produce to your campaign, and the fact that Ted Cruz is not personally liked by most of your colleagues. Simply put, Ted Cruz is one of the most conservative ideologues to emerge as a potential frontrunner in modern presidential history. And recent Republican polling shows that Cruz’s hardline conservative views on women’s health, marriage equality, immigration – among others - are not only out of step with the American public, but his potential nomination also casts a dark shadow over House Republicans down the ballot. Again, look no further than polling straight from the House GOP. According toPOLITICO, a leading Republican pollster concluded that “Cruz would have the biggest negative effect [on GOP house candidates], citing the Texas senator’s starkly ideological positions.” Another flag is that Cruz is strongly disliked by his – and your – colleagues. According to the Washington Post, “The list of GOP politicians and operatives willing to take open shots at Cruz has grown long: Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.), former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, former House speaker John A. Boehner (Ohio), Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.), fellow Texas Sen. John Cornyn, Sen. John Thune (S.D.), former senator Tom Coburn (Okla.) — and on and on.” Given his unpopularity with Members and Senators in Washington, it is important to consider whether endorsing Ted Cruz would pose serious challenges to any future political aspirations that you might have down the road. Marco Rubio – Conservative Toxicity and Unprepared Red Flags: · Marco Rubio is being portrayed as the establishment alternative to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, but that is only by comparison. To be clear, his policy positions are as extreme as Ted Cruz’s and will hurt you in your moderate district. · Marco Rubio’s performance in Saturday night’s debate was strange at best, a train wreck at worst. Before endorsing Marco Rubio, YOU should seriously consider if he has the experience and ability to successfully run for president, and also analyze several major red flags in his record that could cause major backlash in your moderate district, particularly with women and people in the Latino community. Most notably are Marco Rubio’s position on women’s issues, which manage to outflank the vast majority of conservative Republicans. Marco Rubio does not support abortion under any circumstance, even for survivors of rape and incest. The vast majority of Americans do not share this position: in an August 2015 Quinnipiac poll, 78% of respondents indicated that abortion should be legal in the case of rape and incest. Anecdotally, opposition to abortions under these circumstances brought about the demise of Congressional candidates including Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock and Sharron Angle. In addition, female voters will find his opposition to the Violence Against Women Act shocking and reprehensible. Support for this legislation is broadly bipartisan and should be a no brainer: it strengthens federal penalties for repeat sex offenders, strengthens the power of victim protection orders, funds training of law enforcement, prosecutors and victim advocates, and much more. Regardless of your position on these two key women’s rights issues, I am seriously concerned that your endorsement of Marco Rubio will force you to answer to those two issues in particular, and you will either have to isolate your Republican base supporters by disagreeing with him, or horrify the female voters in your district. The Backups: This endorsement decision clearly puts you between a rock and a hard place. Given that the Republican frontrunners are all tragically flawed, and could negatively impact your image if tied to them, a few notes on the backup options: • Governor Chris Christie has a reputation of being a bully, known best for shutting down the traffic-laden George Washington Bridge in New Jersey after a local Mayor did not endorse him in his gubernatorial re-lection effort. Beyond this epic scandal, New Jersey has one of the worst records of job creation in the country under Chris Christie, and the state’s credit was downgraded nine times. Being tied to his economic record could be detrimental in district. • Governor Jeb Bush has been a massive disappointment this election thus far, lacking personality and conviction. What’s more, he has made disturbing comments about the children of immigrants, calling them “anchor babies” and also has a controversial plan to cut Social Security. • Governor John Kasich is currently being forced to brag about his conservative record, a fascinating phenomenon in a presidential year. As Governor, Kasich enacted dozens of anti-abortion measures and has stripped funding for Planned Parenthood. He also opposed gay marriage and cut food stamps. Bottom Line: At this point, I am unable to make a recommendation at this point for who is the least harmful Presidential nominee to your reelection efforts. We should discuss. .