2050 Desert Power Perspectives on a Sustainable Power System for EUMENA Dii Renewable energy bridging continents Stand und Acknowledgements Schriftart Headline überprüfen Authors: Florian Zickfeld, Aglaia Wieland (Dii) Co-authors: Julian Blohmke, Matthew Sohm, Ahmad Yousef (Dii) Contributors: Frank Buttinger, Angelika Denk, Patrik Erroi, Philipp Godron, Jürgen Neubarth, Alexander Rietz, Fabian Wigand (Dii) Dii Shareholders and Associated Partners as well as numerous third party experts have made significant contributions at all stages writing this report Scientific authors: Martin Pudlik, Mario Ragwitz, Frank Sensfuß (Fraunhofer ISI) Dii GmbH was founded as a private industry joint ven- Since its inception in 1972, Fraunhofer ISI has been in- ture in October 2009. Today, Dii has 21 Shareholders and fluential in shaping the German and international inno- 35 Associated Partner companies from 16 countries vation landscape. The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems in Europe as well as the Middle East and North Africa and Innovation Research ISI conducts applied research (MENA). Together with a wide range of stakeholders, Dii in seven Competence Centers with a total of 22 Busi- enables an industrial scale market for renewable energy ness Units and sees itself as an independent institute in MENA. To this end, Dii is formulating a long-term visi- for society, politics and industry. on and translating it into country specific assessments, a regulatory framework and concrete reference projects. Published in June 2012 by Dii GmbH Kaiserstr. 14 80801 Munich Germany For more information: www.dii-eumena.com [email protected] Desert Power 2050 | Dii GmbH 3 Desert Power 2050 | Dii GmbH Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary: The Case for Desert Power ................................... 6 1.1 From resources to electricity .............................................................. 7 1.2 Benefits of desert power ................................................................... 10 1.2.1 Competitiveness................................................................................ 10 1.2.2 Sustainability .................................................................................... 12 1.2.3 Security of supply ............................................................................. 14 1.3 Perspectives on desert power ............................................................ 18 1.4 Conclusion: time to get started.......................................................... 21 2 The Basis of Desert Power for EUMENA ............................................. 23 2.1 Methodology ..................................................................................... 25 2.2 Demand and carbon emissions .......................................................... 29 2.3 Transmission technology ................................................................... 32 2.4 Power generation and storage technologies ....................................... 35 2.4.1 Conventional power technologies ....................................................... 36 2.4.2 Non-Solar/Wind renewables .............................................................. 36 2.4.3 Storage technologies......................................................................... 39 2.4.4 Solar and Wind technologies .............................................................. 41 2.5 Solar and Wind potential in EUMENA ................................................. 48 3 The Shape of Desert Power for EUMENA ............................................ 54 3.1 Economic benefits of system integration ............................................ 55 3.2 Climate action benefits of system integration ..................................... 60 3.3 Power production for EUMENA........................................................... 61 3.4 Power transmission in EUMENA......................................................... 69 3.5 The integration miracle: what grids do for individual countries ........... 79 3.5.1 The big picture: system level ............................................................. 79 3.5.2 Deep dives: implications on country level ........................................... 83 3.6 Desert power enhances energy security across EUMENA .................... 94 3.6.1 Desert power and the paradigm change of renewable energy .............. 95 3.6.2 EU-MENA interdependence ................................................................ 96 3.6.3 Europe’s insurance policy: gas back-up capacities ............................. 97 3.6.4 Desert power as a long-term, systemic transformation ....................... 98 3.6.5 A diversified power supply for EUMENA .............................................. 98 4 Perspectives on Desert Power for EUMENA ........................................ 99 4.1 Perspectives definitions ...................................................................100 4.2 Perspectives overview ......................................................................102 4 Desert Power 2050 | Dii GmbH 4.2.1 Perspectives on EUMENA-wide system integration ............................102 4.2.2 Perspectives on system cost .............................................................103 4.3 Benefits of low demand ....................................................................106 4.4 Paradigm shift perspectives .............................................................111 4.4.1 Delayed climate action .....................................................................111 4.4.2 Nuclear/CCS ....................................................................................114 4.5 Medium impact changes ...................................................................116 4.5.1 High land use Europe .......................................................................116 4.5.2 Delayed grids ...................................................................................118 4.5.3 High capital cost MENA ....................................................................121 4.6 Low impact changes .........................................................................123 4.6.1 Maximum cooperation ......................................................................123 4.6.2 No NREAPs ......................................................................................124 4.6.3 Delayed renewables cost curves .......................................................125 4.6.4 Cheap batteries................................................................................126 5 Conclusion: Time to Get Started .......................................................127 5.1 Roll-out of Solar and Wind in MENA ..................................................128 5.2 Transmission highways between MENA and Europe ...........................129 5.3 Support scheme design ....................................................................130 5.4 Socio-economic effects ....................................................................131 5.5 Last but not least .............................................................................133 6 Definitions .......................................................................................134 7 List of Tables ...................................................................................137 8 List of Figures .................................................................................138 9 Appendix ..........................................................................................140 Disclaimer.The following terms & conditions govern any release of information by Dii GmbH and its Affiliates (verbundene Unternehmen within the meaning of Section 15 et seqq. 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