TRICS Back Validation Technical Report on Research “Copyright Babtie Group Limited. All rights reserved. No part of this report may be copied or reproduced by any means without prior written permission from Babtie Group Limited. If you have received this report in error, please destroy all copies in your possession or control and notify Babtie Group Limited. This report has been prepared for the exclusive use of the commissioning party and unless otherwise agreed in writing by Babtie Group Limited, no other party may use, make use of or rely on the contents of the report. No liability is accepted by Babtie Group Limited for any use of this report, other than for the purposes for which it was originally prepared and provided. Opinions and information provided in the report are on the basis of Babtie Group Limited using due skill, care and diligence in the preparation of the same and no explicit warranty is provided as to their accuracy. It should be noted and it is expressly stated that no independent verification of any of the documents or information supplied to Babtie Group Limited has been made.” 0002096 April 2004. Babtie Group Miller House, Lower Stone Street, Maidstone, Kent, ME15 6GB Tel 01622 666083 Fax 01622 677784 TRICS Back Validation Technical Report on Research Contents Page Number 1 Introduction 1 2 Methodology to Calculate Trip Rates 3 3 Trip Rate Results 9 4 Factors not currently identified in TRICS 19 5 General Transport Trends 20 6 Land Use Changes 33 7 ‘Out of/into the Box’ Thinking 45 8 Conclusions 82 9 References 86 Appendices Page 126 -158 A Research Brief. B Technical Note – Identification of Key Land Uses. C TRICS – Analysis of Repeat Surveys in Kent. D Kent Development Control Forum – Workshop summary. - I - TRICS Back Validation Technical Report on Research Figures Pages 88 to 125 1 Methodology for checking trip rate data. 2 Superstore trip rates for town centre locations over the period 1986-2002. 3 Superstore trip rate analysis at Tesco, Clitheroe. 4 Superstore trip rates for neigbourhood centre locations over the period 1986-2002. 5 Superstore trip rate analysis at Plymco (Co-op), Plymouth – Saturday. 6 Superstore trip rate analysis at Sainsburys, Exeter. 7 Superstore trip rates for Suburban locations over the period 1986-2002. 8 Superstore trip rate analysis at Tesco, Poole. 9 Superstore trip rate analysis at Tesco, Plymouth – Saturday. 10 Superstore trip rates at edge of town locations over the period 1986-2002. 11 Superstore trip rate analysis at Sainsburys, Christchurch. 12 Superstore trip rate analysis at Sainsburys, Fareham. 13 Superstore trip rate analysis at Asda, Brighton. 14 Office (B1 use class) trip rates for town centre locations over the period 1984-2002. 15 Office (B1 use class) trip rates for suburban locations over the period 1989-2002. 16 Office trip rate analysis for Legal & General, Surrey – Thursday. 17 Office (B1 use class) trip rates for edge of town locations over the period 1986-2002. 18 Office trip rate analysis for Southern Water, Worthing - weekday. 19 Industrial estate trip rates over the period 1982-2000. 20 Trip rates at houses privately owned in edge of town locations over the period 1988-2002. 21 Trip rate per household at privately owned houses from 1988 to 2002 - variation according to car ownership. 22 Trip rates at houses privately owned with access to under 40 buses/trains per day over the period 1988-2002. 23 Trip rates at houses privately owned with access to at least 40 buses/trains per day over the period 1988-2002. 24 Mixed Private Housing in edge of town locations over the period 1989-2000. 25 Mixed Private Housing trip rate analysis for Winchester Housing – weekday. 26 Mixed Private Housing trip rate analysis for The Meadows, Stafford – Tuesday. 27 Mixed Private Housing trip rate analysis for Chichester Housing – weekdays. 28 Trip rates at mixed private housing from 1989 to 2000 - variation according to car ownership. 29 Mixed private housing trips rates over the period 1989-2000 where there is access to at least 40 buses/trains per day. 30 All days * Edge of town Hotel Trip rates per bedroom over the period 1987-2002. 31 All days * Free Standing Hotel Trip rates per bedroom over the period 1987-2002. 32 Hotel trip rate analysis for Weymouth – Saturday. 33 Trip rates per pupil at different types of primary school over the period 1991-2000. 34 Inter-annual variation in Trip Rates per pupil at different types of Primary School. 35 Monday-Friday Trip rate trends at a Middle School in Wareham, Dorset. 36 Retail Park (excluding food) trip rate analysis for Queens Retail Park, Stafford. 37 Retail Park (excluding food) trip rate analysis for County Oak Retail Park, Crawley. 38 Garden Centre trip rate analysis for Stewarts Gardenland, Christchurch. 39 Garden Centre trip rate analysis for Kingston Garden Centre, Lewes. 40 Garden Centre trip rate analysis for Kent Garden Centre, Allington. 41 Restaurant trip rate analysis for Brewers Fayre, Chichester. 42 Multiplex Cinema trip rate analysis for UCI, Preston – Saturday. 43 Multiplex Cinema trip rate analysis for Showcase Cinema, Leeds. 44 Trip rate analysis for Bowling Alley, Gravesend. 45 Trip rate analysis for Sports Centre, Bournemouth. 46 Trip rate analysis for Sports Centre, Weymouth. 47 Trip rate analysis for Leisure Centre, Maidstone. 48 Trip rate analysis for Country Park, Lochgelly. - II - TRICS Back Validation Technical Report on Research Figures cont’d 49 Trip rate analysis for Marina, Hythe, Hants. 50 Trip rate analysis for Marina, Gillingham, Kent. 51 Other factors not identified in TRICS that may explain variation in Trip Rates. 52 Variation in the ownership of Full car driving licences by gender during the 1990s. 53 Trend in UK New Car Sales [Ref 6]. 54 Applications received and decided and speed of decision, England 1989/90 to 2001/02. 55 Percentage change in applications received between 2000/01 & 2001/02 by Government Office Region. 56 Percentage change in applications decided between 2000/01 & 2001/02 by Government Office Region. 57 Planning decisions by type of development. 58 Net annual average change in all land use groups, 1996-1998. 59 Gross annual average land use change between and within developed land and undeveloped uses, 1996-1998. 60 Previous use of land changing to developed use 1996-1999. 61 New use of land changing to developed use 1996-1999. 62 Percentage of land that was previously-developed by new developed use, 1996-1999 average. 63 New dwellings and residential land from previously-developed land: 1992-2002. 64 Density of dwellings built: 1992-2002. 65 Location of National Parks in the UK as of mid 2003 [Ref 14]. 66 Proposed Areas of Assistance [Ref 16] 67 Offices - Correlation between trip rates and GDP per head (period 1989-1999). 68 Business Parks - Correlation between GDP per head and Trip Rate (period 1995-1997). Tables 1 Daily variation in Housing - privately owned trip rates per 1 household according to day of the week and type of survey. 2 Daily variation in Mixed Private Housing trip rates per 1 household according to day of the week and type of survey. 3 Hotel trip rates per 1 bedroom (all years). 4 Proportion of households with access to a car 1980/2001. 5 Schedule of Planning Policy Guidance Notes. 6 Planning applications received and decided by district planning authorities, by Government Office Region and type of authority 2001/2. 7 Planning decisions by district planning authorities, by speed of decision and type of development, England 2001/2. 8 Total net change in land use to and from all land use groups: 1989-1998. 9 Variation in the number of visitor days per hectare at each of England and Wales’ National Parks (Ref 14). - III - TRICS Back Validation Technical Report on Research 1 Introduction 1.1 Background 1.1.1 The Trip Rate Information Computer System (TRICS) is a computerised database of land use and trip generation information providing a trip rate analysis package used for transport planning and development control purposes. It is owned by a Consortium of Local Authorities (Dorset, East Sussex, Kent, Hampshire, Surrey and West Sussex County Councils) who have appointed JMP Consultants Limited to administer and market the database and analysis software. The responsibility for the system and its development lies with a Management Group comprising representatives from each of the Consortium local authorities and from the marketing managers, JMP. 1.1.2 Through the activities of the Management Group the Consortium encourages and supports research that helps both professional awareness and education and to maintain the systems technical standing and viability in the market place. 1.1.3 Such research may be commissioned externally from other independent consultants or be tackled internally by JMP or the local authorities. In this way a broad cross-section of input is maintained to system development. 1.1.4 A potential research brief topic concerning ‘Back Validation’ was identified by JMP, who expressed the opinion that there was a potential role for the Consortium. Kent County Council had already undertaken a local analysis of time series data and expressed an interest on the basis that they could use the resources of their term consultant Babtie to extend and progress the work. 1.1.5 The fundamental aim of the research is to understand a little more about the validity over time of data that currently exists in the system. In particular the adopted default practice of applying an 8-year cut-off for data to be included in the trip rate calculation, may not necessarily be appropriate, as some more historic data elements may remain valid. Hence the concept of ‘Back Validation’ emerged to investigate and establish a process that can look back in time and verify the continued applicability or not, of historic database sites.