CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER AND CONFLICT IN THE NIGER RIVER BASIN MARISA GOULDEN AND ROGER FEW DECEMBER 2011 This report is written by Marisa Goulden and Roger Few, with contributions from the people listed below as part of a project led by International Alert in partnership with the School of International Development at the University of East Anglia (UEA), the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and research partners in Mali, Nigeria and Niger. This project and report have been made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The report has been reviewed.1 The contents of this report are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government, or researchers within the wider Tyndall Centre or School of International Development, UEA. Contributors: Lulsegged Abebe, Nick Brooks, Mona Daoud, Mamadou Kani Konaté, Elizabeth Sarney, Dan Smith, Boniface Umoh, Phil Vernon, Julia Weiner and Boubacar Yamba. 1 The reviewers included one external reviewer, two reviewers from International Alert not directly involved in the research and a representative of the funding agency. © International Alert and University of East Anglia 2011 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without full attribution. Cover2 image CLIMATE © International CHANGE, Alert/Aurélien WATER Tobie AND CONFLICT IN THE NIGER RIVER BASIN CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER AND CONFLICT IN THE NIGER RIVER BASIN MARISA GOULDEN AND ROGER FEW ABOUT THE LEAD AUTHORS Marisa Goulden is a Lecturer in Climate Change at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and the School of International Development, UEA. She conducts research and teaching on topics related to adaptation to environmental change and international development, water security and management of water resources, human security, livelihoods and resilience. Roger Few has a background in human geography, political ecology, and environment and health in developing countries. His current research focuses on vulnerability and adaptation to natural hazards/disasters and climate change, with special interest in how households, communities and institutions respond to the health risks associated with climatic and environmental hazards. He is a Senior Research Fellow at the School of International Development, UEA, and is also a member of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. ABOUT INTERNATIONAL ALERT International Alert is a 25-year old independent peacebuilding organisation. We work with people who are directly affected by violent conflict to improve their prospects of peace. And we seek to influence the policies and ways of working of governments, international organisations like the UN and multinational companies, to reduce conflict risk and increase the prospects of peace. We work in Africa, several parts of Asia, the South Caucasus, the Middle East and Latin America and have recently started work in the UK. Our policy work focuses on several key themes that influence prospects for peace and security – the economy, climate change, gender, the role of international institutions, the impact of development aid, and the effect of good and bad governance. We are one of the world’s leading peacebuilding NGOs with more than 155 staff based in London and 15 field offices. To learn more about how and where we work, visit www.international-alert.org. ABOUT THE TYNDALL CENTRE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Established in 2000, the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research has pioneered interdisciplinary research on the multiple dimensions of climate change. Among its notable achievements are: establishing strategies for managing urban environments and dynamic coastlines in a changing climate; identifying the importance of aviation, shipping, public perceptions and non-state actors for climate change mitigation; advancing the theory for climate change adaptation and resilience; and creating narratives for limiting global warming to two degrees while preparing for four degrees Celsius. The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research is a partnership of the University of East Anglia and the Universities of Cambridge, Cardiff, Manchester, Newcastle, Oxford, Southampton and Sussex. The Fudan Tyndall Centre has recently been launched at Fudan University in Shanghai, China. ABOUT THE SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, UEA The School of International Development (DEV) has a global reputation as a centre of research excellence, including policy work with international and national organisations. DEV research addresses contemporary challenges in developing and transition economies through methodological and theoretical innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration and a commitment that its research should make a difference. It works closely with individuals and communities, often taking a long-term approach. DEV also hosts a number of research groups, which are organised along three broad research areas: economic development, social development and sustainable development. 2 CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER AND CONFLICT IN THE NIGER RIVER BASIN ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We would like to thank the communities in Mali and Nigeria who took part in this study, as well as the local and federal government officials, local and international civil society organisations and academics who have shared their insights in interviews and workshops. This report would not have been possible without the valuable assistance provided by the members of the project team: Lulsegged Abebe, Project Manager, and Julia Weiner, Project Officer at International Alert; Mamadou Kani Konaté and colleagues at Centre d’Appui à la Recherche et à la Formation (CAREF) in Mali; Boniface Umoh at the Institute of Developmental Studies, University of Nigeria, Nsukka; Professor Boubacar Yamba at the University Abdou Moumouni Dioffo in Niger. We are also grateful for the support of the West Africa Civil Society Forum (WACSOF) for facilitating the research teamwork in Nigeria. We would like to extend our thanks to the report reviewers for their constructive comments and to Cynthia Brady (USAID), Dan Smith, Lisa Renard, Janani Vivekananda, Phil Vernon, Chitra Nagarajan, Judy El-Bushra and Aurelien Tobie (International Alert), Colette Harris (UEA), and colleagues at DEV and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UEA for helpful contributions in various stages of the research. Finally, we would like to sincerely thank USAID for funding this initiative; in particular, USAID Mali and USAID Nigeria for their support in country. CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER AND CONFLICT IN THE NIGER RIVER BASIN 3 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 AcRONYMS 9 1. INTRODUCTION 10 Purpose of the study 10 Climate, resources and conflict: research scope and concepts 10 Gender, conflict and climate change 13 Methodology 14 Structure of report 15 2. CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE OF THE NIGER RIVER BASIN 16 Description of the Niger River Basin and climatological context 16 Historical changes in climate and river flows in the Niger Basin 16 Future climate change in the Niger Basin 19 3. REGIONAL AND NATIONAL WATER MANAGEMENT AND ADAPTATION 20 Water resources management 20 Adaptation and future development in the Niger Basin 21 4. REGIONAL SCale – CONFLICT ISSUES 25 The role of climate and environmental change in conflict 25 Other drivers of conflict in the Niger Basin region 25 5. CASE STUDy 1 – SÉLINGUÉ, MALI 28 Context and description 28 River management 28 Extreme events and variability 30 Access to pasture (land and water) 31 6. CASE STUDy 2 – SÉGOU, MALI 33 Context and description 33 Water management for irrigation and population displacement 33 Extreme events and variability 35 Access to pasture (land and water) 36 7. CASE STUDy 3 – LOKOJA, NIGERIA 38 Context and description 38 Extreme events and variability 38 River management 40 Access to pasture (land and water) 42 8. CLIMATE-CONFLICT LINKS AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE 45 Environment-climate stresses 45 Climate-conflict linkages 47 Responses: the role of adaptation and conflict resolution in providing resilience 48 9. CONCLUSIONS 54 10. POLICY GUIDELINES 56 REFERENCES 58 ANNEX: NUMBER OF INTERVIEWS AND GROUP DISCUSSIONS BY CASE STUDIES 66 4 CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER AND CONFLICT IN THE NIGER RIVER BASIN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY NIGER RIVER BASIN CONTEXT AND CASE STUDIES The Niger River is the third longest river in Africa, flowing for 4,200 km from its source in the Guinea highlands, within the humid tropics, through Mali and Niger with their semi-arid Sahelian climates, to the Niger delta in Nigeria. The drainage basin covers a surface area of just over 2.2 million km², extending into 10 countries. Seventy-six percent of the basin area is located within Mali, Niger and Nigeria. The Niger River and its tributaries are a key source of water for the estimated 100 million people living in the basin, especially for the drier regions within the western Sahel zone. This report examines the links between environmental stress, climate change, human security, conflict and adaptation at different scales and localities along the Niger River. Despite a growing interest in the possible linkages between climate and conflict, limited evidence on these linkages exists, much of which is contradictory. The Niger Basin has experienced significant climate variability during the 20th century,