Towards a Numerical Run-Out Model for Quick-Clay Slides Dieter ISSLER1,*, Jean-Sébastien L’HEUREUX2, José M. CEPEDA1 and Byron QUAN LUNA3 1 Natural Hazards Division, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway 2 Geotechnics and Natural Hazards Trondheim Group, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Trondheim, Norway 3 DNV GL AS, Høvik, Norway *Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected] Mapping the hazard from quick-clay slides (QCS) needs to consider, not only the release area, but also the entire flow path. However, models and an associated method for estimating the run-out distance are currently missing. A comparative analysis of field observations reveals the run-out distance to scale linearly with the retrogression distance and as a power of the slide volume. Back-calculations of selected events with different numerical models (BING, DAN3D, MassMov2D) show that models developed for other slide types are not suitable for predicting run-out distances in an objective way, based on measured soil properties. A numerical run-out model for QCS needs to include the progression of remolding, the rafting of non-sensitive soil at the top, and retrogressive failure, which must be either computed or specified through the initial conditions. In most cases, a (quasi-)3D code will be needed. Key words: quick-clay slides, rheological properties, mathematical run-out models 1. INTRODUCTION near Trondheim captured the material behavior of quick clay and the extent of such events impressively Throughout Norway’s written history up to the (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3q-qfNlEP4A). present day, there are many reports on landslide dis- Modern geotechnical and geophysical techniques asters—the worst of which claimed hundreds of are able to locate potential release areas of quick-clay lives—that struck unexpectedly and occurred, not in slides and assess their stability with reasonable accu- steep slopes, but in prime settlement areas with roll- racy and reliability, e.g. [L'Heureux et al., 2014a]. In ing hills where no-one would suspect any such dan- Norway, a nation-wide program to map the risk of ger. We now know that highly sensitive clays cause quick-clay slides according to a three-level scale is those events and that many low-lying areas in Scan- underway. In some cases, the slide masses will flow dinavia, eastern Canada, Alaska and Russia are prone out along existing rivers or into the sea without caus- to this type of slope instability. ing problems. In other cases, people and infrastruc- During glaciation, ice streams deposited huge ture downstream may be at high risk so that one needs amounts of clay in the shallow near-shore waters of to determine the potential run-out area. However, those times. Flocculation mediated by salts caused there are presently no established methods for doing these clays to form a card-house-like texture with this, and the extraordinary mobility of quick-clay high water content. Isostatic rebound after the last slides makes this a challenging task. glaciation lifted these glacio-marine clays above sea In the next section, we summarize the features of level. As fresh water or ground water leach the salt, quick-clay slides that are relevant for model develop- the repulsive inter-particle forces increase and make ment, based on a recent report [L’Heureux, 2012b]. these clays highly sensitive [Rosenqvist, 1953]. If Before embarking on the development of a dedicated structural collapse occurs, the leached clay behaves model, it is instructive to apply existing models for as a liquid of low yield strength and viscosity. An ex- other slide types to quick-clay slides in order to de- ternal trigger, like earthquakes, destabilization of a termine to which degree they can reproduce the ob- riverbank by fluvial erosion, or anthropogenic loads, servations and where they fail. Section 3 therefore de- may remold the sensitive clay sufficiently to liquefy. scribes simulations with three different models of one Amateur video footage from the 1978 event at Rissa of three test cases from the report [Issler et al., 2012]. 282 Fig. 2 Conceptual landslide model showing some of the morpho- logical parameters compiled in the study [L’Heureux, 2012b], in particular the run-out length from the gate, D, and the retrogres- sion distance, L (after [L’Heureux, 2012a]). strongly remolded and flows out of the crater, leaving an unstable scarp. A second slide may then occur with the remolded clay also flowing out of the crater, Fig. 1 Schematic representation of the most frequent types of generating yet another unstable scarp. This process landslide in sensitive clays. From [Locat, 2012]. continues until a final stable backscarp is formed (Fig. 1.a). An empty crater (in some cases with a bot- Finally, in Sec. 4, we discuss what these studies im- tleneck shape) is characteristic of this type of land- ply for the next steps in the development of a realistic slide. Multiple retrogressive slides tend to occur dynamical run-out model for quick-clay slides. when the following requirements are met: (i) There is sufficient potential energy in the slope to remold the 2. RELEVANT PROPERTIES OF QUICK- clay effectively. (ii) The remolded clay is liquid CLAY SLIDES enough to flow out of the landslide crater (i.e., liquid- ity index IL > 1.2 or remolded shear strength sur < 1 The criteria for classifying a clay material as kPa [Lebuis et al., 1983; L’Heureux et al., 2012]. (iii) quick vary somewhat between countries and are sub- The topography allows evacuation of the debris. ject to change, but they are typically based on the sen- Translational (or flake-type) landslides result from the development of a shear surface parallel to sitivity, St = suu /sur, of the soil and a threshold value of the remolded shear strength. In this paper, we de- the ground surface, above which the soil mass dis- places downhill [Cruden and Varnes, 1996]. Trans- note the unremolded undrained shear strength by suu lational progressive landslides exhibit a zone of sub- and the remolded undrained shear strength by sur. sidence at the head of the slope and an extensive com- Norwegian practice considers clays as quick if sur < pressive heave zone located far beyond the toe of the 0.5 kPa and as highly sensitive if St > 30 [NGF, 1974]. slope, in less inclined ground (Fig. 1.b). According to [Tavenas, 1984; Karlsrud et al., [Cruden and Varnes, 1996] attribute spreads to 1984], the sensitive clays of Canada and Scandinavia the extension and dislocation of the soil mass above give rise mainly to (i) single rotational slides, the failure surface, forming horsts and grabens that (ii) multiple retrogressive slides (aka. earthflows or subside in the underlying remolded material forming flows), (iii) translational progressive landslides the shear zone (Fig. 1.c). Those geomorphologic (flakes), (iv) spreads. The last three types (Fig. 1) oc- shapes are key elements distinguishing spreads from cur very suddenly and often cover large areas. Trans- other retrogressive landslides. lational progressive landslides are uncommon in east- In considering the mobility of a landslide, one ern Canada, but occur often in Scandinavia [Aas, can distinguish between two components (Fig. 2): the 1981; Karlsrud et al., 1984]. Among the large land- retrogression (L) and the run-out distance (D). The slides occurring in sensitive clays, flows are the most data compiled in Fig. 3 shows the retrogression al- common in Norway [Bjerrum, 1955; Tavenas, 1984; ways to be less or equal to the run-out distance, ex- L’Heureux, 2012a] and in eastern Canada. [Karlsrud cept in situations where the slide did not develop into et al., 1984] underline that a combination of the four a flow. There is a clear linear trend for both the lower types of landslides can often be observed in one and the upper limit of the mobility, which differ by a event. factor of 10. Note that the data span three orders of Flows are multiple retrogressive slides resulting magnitude in both L and D. No significant difference from an initial failure, the debris of which becomes is visible between the Norwegian and Canadian 283 Fig. 3 Mobility estimated for Norwegian quick-clay landslide as Fig. 4 Liquidity index plotted against sensitivity for landslides in a function of the retrogression distance (extended data set from sensitive clay observed in Norway. The horizontal line St = 30 [L’Heureux, 2012a]). The data is compared to landslides in sen- designates the lower limit for highly sensitive clays according to sitive clays from eastern Canada [Locat et al., 2008]. Norwegian practice. From [L'Heureux, 2012b]. slides. We conjecture that these linear relationships are the result of geometric similarity within the range of distances over which quick-clay slides can occur. We have only very tentative explanations for the lower and upper limit of the ratio D/L: A value near or below 1 implies that a significant portion of the released mass remains in the crater and thus stabilizes the escarpment by its weight and by reducing the slope angle. This can occur because of incomplete remolding or topographic impediments. A large ratio, on the other hand, requires rapid remolding and un- impeded outflow. If the clay is easily remolded (and readily flows out), the creep induced in the slide scar by the missing pressure from the released masses will be enough to remold the next portion of soil so that retrogression continues. Retrogression may also stop because the reservoir of sensitive clay is exhausted. The largest values of D/L in Fig. 3 may well be due to this effect. Fig. 5 Mobility of Norwegian quick clay landslides as a function Another important factor contributing to retro- of the normalized volume of disturbed material per unit width gression and the mobility of the landslides in sensi- (extended data set from [L’Heureux, 2012a]).