September 2019 © CCEM Strategies Ltd. Contact: [email protected] Table of Contents LIMITATION OF LIABILITY ............................................................................................................................ IV COPYRIGHT ............................................................................................................................................... IV ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................................. V Project Sponsorship ........................................................................................................................................ v Production Team .............................................................................................................................................. v Community Representatives & Stakeholders ........................................................................................ v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. VI 01 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose ................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Scope .................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Limitations .......................................................................................................................................................... 3 APPROACH .....................................................................................................................................5 02 ENGAGEMENT ......................................................................................................................................... 6 03 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION & ASSESSMENT .................................................................................... 8 Hazard Identification ...................................................................................................................................... 8 Risk Assessment ................................................................................................................................................ 8 HRVA FINDINGS .......................................................................................................................... 13 04 COMMUNITY PROFILES ...................................................................................................................... 14 Geographic Setting ....................................................................................................................................... 14 General Demographics ............................................................................................................................... 16 Age ..................................................................................................................................................................... 18 Cultural Identity ............................................................................................................................................. 19 Language .......................................................................................................................................................... 19 Family and Household Characteristics .................................................................................................. 20 Income ............................................................................................................................................................... 21 Economy ........................................................................................................................................................... 22 05 VULNERABILITY .................................................................................................................................... 24 Introduction..................................................................................................................................................... 24 Social Vulnerability ....................................................................................................................................... 24 REGIONAL DISTRICT OF NANAIMO, TOWN OF QUALICUM BEACH, AND CITY OF PARKSVILLE i HAZARD, RISK AND VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS – SEPTEMBER, 2019 Economic Vulnerability ............................................................................................................................... 30 Environmental Vulnerability ...................................................................................................................... 30 Physical Vulnerability ................................................................................................................................... 32 06 CLIMATE CHANGE ............................................................................................................................... 39 07 HAZARD ASSESSMENT RESULTS & RISK SCORES ....................................................................... 43 Risk Scores ....................................................................................................................................................... 43 08 TOP HAZARDS ...................................................................................................................................... 52 Fires (Wildfire and Urban Interface) ....................................................................................................... 54 Overland Flooding ........................................................................................................................................ 59 Rivers, Lakes, and Stream Flooding ........................................................................................................ 60 Coastal Flooding ............................................................................................................................................ 62 Wind Event....................................................................................................................................................... 68 Drought ............................................................................................................................................................. 70 Motor Vehicle Incident................................................................................................................................ 72 Electrical Power Outage .............................................................................................................................. 74 Structure Fire .................................................................................................................................................. 77 Human Disease .............................................................................................................................................. 79 Intentional Acts of CBRNE ......................................................................................................................... 81 Active Threat ................................................................................................................................................... 83 Megathrust Earthquake .............................................................................................................................. 85 09 RESILIENCY ............................................................................................................................................ 88 Prevention & Mitigation Activities ......................................................................................................... 89 010 CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................................................... 93 APPENDIX 1. GLOSSARY OF KEY TERMS ............................................................................................. 97 APPENDIX 2. HAZARD DEFINITIONS ................................................................................................... 99 APPENDIX 3. FULL HAZARD ASSESSMENT SCORES ....................................................................... 113 APPENDIX 4. THE REGION’S CRITICAL ASSETS OWNED/OPERATED BY LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND FIRST NATIONS ........................................................................ 115 APPENDIX 5. RESPONSE SERVICES AND RESOURCES .................................................................... 118 APPENDIX 6. ENGAGEMENT SESSIONS PARTICIPANTS ................................................................ 122 APPENDIX 7. REFERENCES/ BIBLIOGRAPHY ...................................................................................... 125 REGIONAL DISTRICT OF NANAIMO, TOWN OF QUALICUM BEACH, AND CITY OF PARKSVILLE ii HAZARD, RISK AND VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS – SEPTEMBER, 2019 List of Tables Table 1 – Likelihood Scale ............................................................................................................................................ 9 Table 2 – Consequence Rating Scale (Human and Social Impacts) .........................................................