TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH CIRCULAR Number E-C027 March 2001 Revised April 2001 Airports in the 21st Century Proceedings of a Conference April 20, 2000 Washington, D.C. Editors Jasenka M. Rakas, University of Maryland George W. Blomme, Aviation Planning and Technology Systems Geoffrey Gosling, University of California at Berkeley TRANSPORTATION Number E-C027, March 2001 RESEARCH ISSN 0097-8515 E-CIRCULAR Airports in the 21st Century Proceedings of a Conference April 20, 2000—Washington, D.C. Cosponsored by Federal Aviation Administration Transportation Research Board TRB COMMITTEE ON AVIATION SYSTEM PLANNING (A1J08) Geoffrey David Gosling, Chair Stephen B. Kiehl, Secretary Ted I. Alman George B. Dresser Richard Marchi Nancy Benjamin Igor Frolow Lloyd A. McCoomb George W. Blomme Donald J. Guffey Keith F. McCrea Margaret Broten Mark J. Holzer Roger P. Moog Robert E. Caves Linda Howard Angus I. Ozoka Richard E. Corbett William Keller David Rubin Richard de Neufville Flavio Leo Robert W. Yatzeck TRB COMMITTEE ON AIRPORT TERMINALS AND GROUND ACCESS (A1J04) Jody Yamanaka Clovis, Chair Zale Anis Larry Kiernan Phillip S. Shapiro Claire Barrett Clifford R. King William J. Sproule Emmanuel Oteng Bediako Andrew C. Lemer Jan Titus Winfield S. Beyea Richard Marchi Antonio A. Trani George W. Blomme John S. Miller Emily M. Underhill Belinda G. Hargrove Panos D. Prevedouros Douglas W. Wiersig M. Allen Hoffman Diane M. Ricard Seth B. Young Joseph A. Breen, TRB Staff Representative Laurence Kiernan, Robert Yatzeck, Sharon Glasgow, and Steven Urlass, Federal Aviation Administration TRB website: Transportation Research Board national-academies.org/trb National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 The Transportation Research Board is a unit of the National Research Council, a private, nonprofit institution that is the principal operating agency of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering. Under a congressional charter granted to the National Academy of Sciences, the National Research Council provides scientific and technical advice to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Transportation Research Board is distributing this Circular to make the information contained herein available for use by individual practitioners in state and local transportation agencies, researchers in academic institutions, and other members of the transportation research community. The information in this Circular was taken directly from the submissions of the authors. This document is not a report of the National Research Council or of the National Academy of Sciences. Preface GEORGE W. BLOMME Airport Planning and Technology Systems Conference Moderator he Transportation Research Board and Federal Aviation Administration cosponsored Ta one-day conference in Washington, D.C., on April 20, 2000, to review the outlook for airports in the 21st century. The Conference focused on development that is expected to take place at major metropolitan airports to help accommodate growth in air travel during the next 25 years. The program considered the major technological and institutional measures that may be combined to increase the capacity of the airport system and to help meet the rising demand for air transportation. Industry experts presented information on the prospects for improved airport infrastructure, aircraft technology, and air traffic control technology in relation to future capacity requirements. The process of planning and undertaking major airport improvement programs was examined from the perspective of regional planning, environmental compatibility, and economic implications. The Conference provided practitioners and policymakers with an opportunity to review the changing context of airport development and to discuss changes in areas such as research, planning procedures, and institutional roles and responsibilities in order to meet future requirements. 1 CONTENTS NOTE: Click on the presentation title to reach each presentation. For biographic information on each speaker, click on the speaker’s name at the start of each presentation. Preface................................................................................................................................1 George W. Blomme, Airport Planning and Technology Systems; Conference Moderator Welcome Address .............................................................................................................. 4 Jane Garvey, Federal Aviation Administration MORNING SESSION Outlook for the Future...................................................................................................... 8 Richard de Neufville, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Infrastructure and Technological Considerations of Airport Capacity Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 12 Geoffrey Gosling, University of California at Berkeley Airport Infrastructure: Where and What Kind of Development?............................. 13 Jeffrey Thomas, Landrum and Brown Aircraft Technology: Impact on Airport Capacity...................................................... 17 Robert Kelley-Wickemeyer, Boeing Commercial Airplane Group Airport Capacity: Limits, Technology, Strategy.......................................................... 19 R. John Hansman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Discussion......................................................................................................................... 21 LUNCHEON SESSION Airport Capacity ............................................................................................................. 33 Matthew Coogan, Consultant 2 AFTERNOON SESSION Institutional Arrangements for Airport Planning and Alternative Ways to Manage Growth Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 41 Stephen Kaplan, Cutler and Stanfield Planning Models.............................................................................................................. 43 Lawrence Dahms, Metropolitan Transportation Commission Environmental Considerations ...................................................................................... 49 Eliot Cutler, Cutler and Stanfield Economic Management of Capacity.............................................................................. 54 John Martin, San Francisco International Airport Congestion Pricing and the Economic Regulation of Airports................................... 60 Kevin Neels, Charles River Associates Discussion......................................................................................................................... 67 Concluding Remarks....................................................................................................... 76 Richard de Neufville, Massachusetts Institute of Technology APPENDIXES Speaker Introductions .................................................................................................... 77 Prospects for the Future ................................................................................................. 90 Richard de Neufville, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Conference Participants ............................................................................................... 114 3 Welcome Address JANE GARVEY Federal Aviation Administration ood morning, and welcome to Airports in the 21st Century. I am delighted with the Gagenda we have today—the “what” we are going to cover. But I am even more pleased by the “who”—you, the participants. We have among us the best minds in airport planning and development. Gathered here today are the people who must frame the conversation about airports, who must take the long view, who must articulate public policy considerations, and who must work together to chart the course to take us into aviation’s second century. So thank you for your commitment. We all know that airport planning involves some very tough issues. We just pulled some of the recent headlines: “Salvaging an Airport Pact” was in the April 3, 2000, Los Angeles Times. The next day, “Miami Airport Agrees to Reduce Noise Pollution after Years of Complaints” was in the Miami Herald. Then, 2 days later, “Opposition Mounting to Hanscomb Expansion,” said The Boston Globe. So, we’re seeing those headlines and seeing those issues across the country. Certainly, airport planning poses some real challenges. Today, I think we really have an opportunity to explore those challenges and, in a sense, change the conversation. That is what I would like to begin to do today—change the conversation about aviation and change the conversation about expansion. It certainly requires re-examining our own public policies. I think that is as true at the federal level as it is at the local level. It means understanding the system needs of aviation in an economy, and at the same time, balancing those needs with the community and environmental concerns. I know that is easier said than done. Most of all, I think what we are going to be asking ourselves, and asking our colleagues over the next several years, is to bring the political will to the constituencies and to bring the constituencies together to make some very hard choices. Kate Lang likes to remind me that it can be done. She cites Louisville and the noise mitigation action being taken there. The town of Minor Lane Heights along with many of its families