MANUEL WELSCH ISRN KTH/KRV/13/09-SE ISBN 978-91-7501-929-1 Enhancing the Treatment Enhancing the Treatment of Systems Integration in Long-term Energy Long-term in Models Integration of Systems Treatment the Enhancing of Systems Integration in Long-term Energy Models MANUEL WELSCH Doctoral Thesis in Energy Technology KTH 2013 KTH Stockholm, Sweden 2013 www.kth.se Enhancing the Treatment of Systems Integration in Long-term Energy Models Manuel Welsch Doctoral Thesis KTH Royal Institute of Technology School of Industrial Engineering and Management Department of Energy Technology Stockholm, Sweden Printed in Sweden Universitetsservice US-AB Stockholm, 2013 ISRN KTH/KRV/13/09-SE ISBN 978-91-7501-929-1 © Manuel Welsch, 2013 Abstract Securing access to affordable energy services is of central importance to our societies. To do this sustainably, energy systems design should be – amongst other things – environmentally compliant and reconcile with the integrated management of potentially limiting resources. This work considers the role for so-called 'Smart Grids' to improve the delivery of energy services. It deals with the integration of renewable energy technologies to mitigate climate change. It further demonstrates an approach to harmonise potentially conflicting energy, water and land-use strategies. Each presents particular challenges to energy systems analysis. Computer aided models can help identify energy systems that most effectively meet the multiple demands placed on them. As models constitute a simple abstraction of reality, it is important to ensure that those dynamics that considerably impact results are suitably integrated. In its three parts, this thesis extends long-term energy system models to consider improved integration between: (A) supply and demand through Smart Grids; (B) timeframes by incorporating short-term operating constraints into long-term models; and (C) resource systems by linking multiple modelling tools. In Part A, the thesis explores the potential of Smart Grids to accelerate and improve electrification efforts in developing countries. Further, a long-term energy system model is enhanced to investigate the Smart Grid benefits associated with a closer integration of supply, storage and demand-side options. In Part B, the same model is extended to integrate flexibility requirements. The benefits of this integration are illustrated on an Irish case study on high levels of wind power penetrations. In Part C, an energy model is calibrated to consider climate change scenarios and linkages with land-use and water models. This serves to assess the implications of introducing biofuels on the small island developing state of Mauritius. The thesis demonstrates that too weak integration between models and resource systems can produce significantly diverging results. The system configurations derived may consequently generate different – and potentially erroneous – policy and investment insights. Keywords: Power system models; Energy system models; Resource system models; Smart Grids; Operating reserve; Biofuels; Sub-Saharan Africa; Ireland; Mauritius; iii Sammanfattning Säker och prisvärd tillgång till energitjänster är en central fråga för dagens samhällen. För att tillgodose samhällen med hållbara energitjänster bör energisystemen designas för att – bland annat – möta de miljömässiga kraven samt hantera potentiellt begränsade resurser. Den här avhandlingen undersöker de ”smarta” elnätens roll för bättre tillhandahållande av energitjänster. Avhandlingen behandlar integration av förnybar energiteknik för minskad klimatpåverkan samt demonstrerar ett tillvägagångssätt för att förena potentiellt motstridiga energi-, vatten- och markanvändningsstrategier. Dessa uppvisar särskilda utmaningar i energisystemanalyser. Datorstödda modeller kan användas för att identifiera energisystem som på effektivast sätt möter samhällets krav. Datorstödda modeller är, per definition, förenklingar av verkligheten och det är därför viktigt att säkerställa en korrekt representation av det verkliga systemets dynamik. Den här avhandlingen förstärker energisystemmodeller för långsiktsprognoser utifrån tre aspekter: förbättra integrationen av (A) tillgång och efterfrågan genom smarta elnät; (B) olika tidsaspekter genom att inkludera kortsiktiga operativa begränsningar; samt (C) resurssystem genom att sammanlänka olika modelleringsverktyg. I del A utforskades de smarta elnätens potential för att förbättra elektriska system i utvecklingsländer. En befintlig energisystemmodell förstärktes för att behandla smarta elnät och kan därmed fånga fördelarna förknippade med energilagring och energianvändning. I del B utvidgades en energisystemmodell för långsiktsprognoser med flexibilitet för kortsiktiga operativa begränsningar. En fallstudie fokuserad på ett vindkraftsdominerat irländskt elnät genomfördes för att demonstrera fördelarna av modellutvecklingen. I del C kalibrerades en energisystemmodell för att ta klimatscenarier i beaktande samt energisystemets kopplingar till markanvändning och vattenresurssystem. En fallstudie fokuserad på Mauritius energisystem genomfördes för att undersöka konsekvenserna av en potentiell introducering av biobränslen. Avhandlingen demonstrerar att undermålig integration av energimodeller och resurssystem kan leda till avsevärda avvikelser i resultaten. Slutsatser som dras utifrån dessa resultat kan därmed leda till vitt skilda – och potentiellt felaktiga – underlag för investeringar och energipolitiska rekommendationer. Nyckelord: kraftsystemmodeller; energisystemmodeller; resursmodeller; smarta elnät; operativ reservkapacitet; biobränslen; Afrika söder om Sahara; Irland; Mauritius; v Publications This doctoral thesis is based on the publications listed below. All underlying energy related analysis and energy model development1 was performed by the author of this thesis. I. Welsch, M., Bazilian, M., Howells, M., Divan, D., Elzinga, D., Strbac, G., Jones, L., Keane, A., Gielen, D., Balijepalli, V.S.K.M., Brew- Hammond, A., Yumkella, K., Smart and Just Grids for sub-Saharan Africa: Exploring options, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 20, pp. 336–352, 2013. II.a. Welsch, M., Howells, M., Bazilian, M., DeCarolis, J., Hermann, S., Rogner, H.H., Modelling Elements of Smart Grids – Enhancing the OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System) code. Energy 46 (1), pp. 337–350, 2012. II.b. Welsch, M., Howells, M., Bazilian, M., DeCarolis, J., Hermann, S., Rogner, H.H., Supplement to: Modelling Elements of Smart Grids – Enhancing the OSeMOSYS Code (DESA/12/2), Working Paper Series. KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, 2012. III. Welsch, M., Howells, M., Hesamzadeh, M., Ó Gallachóir, B., Deane, J.P., Strachan, N., Bazilian, M., Kammen, D.M., Jones, L., Rogner, H.H., Strbac, G., Supporting Security and Adequacy in Future Energy Systems – The need to enhance long-term energy system models to better treat issues related to variability, revisions submitted. IV. Welsch, M., Deane, J.P., Howells, M., Rogan, F., Ó Gallachóir, B., Rogner, H.H., Bazilian, M., Incorporating Flexibility Requirements into Long-term Models – A Case Study on High Levels of Renewable Electricity Penetration in Ireland, submitted. V. Howells, M., Hermann, S., Welsch, M., Bazilian, M., Segerström, R., Alfstad, T., Gielen, D., Rogner, H., Fischer, G., van Velthuizen, H., Wiberg, D., Young, C., Röhrl, R.A., Mueller, A., Steduto, P., Ramma, I., Integrated analysis of climate change, land-use, energy and water strategies, Nature Climate Change 3 (7), pp. 621–626, 2013. 1 In this context, the term ‘development’ either refers to the calibration of an existing modelling framework or model code extensions to account for previously ignored dynamics. vii Enhancing the Treatment of Systems Integration in Long-term Energy Models VI. Welsch, M., Hermann, S., Howells, M., Rogner, H.H., Young, C., Ramma, I., Bazilian, M., Fischer, G., Alfstad, T., Gielen, D., Le Blanc, D., Röhrl, A., Steduto, P., Müller, A., Adding Value with CLEWS – Modelling the Energy System and its Interdependencies for Mauritius. Applied Energy 113, pp. 1434–1445, 2014. Papers I – VI and Paper VI were directly integrated into the three main parts of this thesis, apart from some expansions and adjustments to improve readability. Part A focuses on integration between technologies and draws on Paper I for Section 1 and Paper II.a and II.b for Section 2. Papers III and IV were restructured and merged within Part B, which focuses on integration between timeframes. Part C focuses on integration between resource systems. The findings of Paper V were summarised in Section 1 of Part C, which otherwise draws on Paper VI. Other journal papers, book chapters and contracted work by the author which served to inform this thesis include: 1. Welsch, M., Perspectives for the Development of Smart Grids for Developing Countries (DCs) and Emerging Markets (EMs) – Discussion Paper, in: GIZ Visionary Workshop. Berlin, Germany, 2011. 2. Welsch, M., Mentis, D., Howells, M., Long Term Energy Systems Planning: Accounting for Short Term Variability and Flexibility, Book Chapter in: Renewable Energy Integration: Practical Management of Variability, Uncertainty and Flexibility in Power Grids, Elsevier, submitted. 3. Hermann, S., Welsch, M., Segerström, R.E., Howells, M.I., Young, C., Alfstad, T., Rogner, H.-H., Steduto, P., Climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) interlinkages in Burkina Faso: An analysis of agricultural intensification and bioenergy production, Natural Resources Forum 36, 245–262, 2012. 4. Rogan,