Borders are a fundamental yet tricky issue in international poli- BO R tics. Despite their seemingly static nature, shifting frontiers are at D Aspen Italia the heart of many historical changes, not just through war. The ER Middle East and North Africa are experiencing important transi- I N VIEWS tions, some of which are traumatic. In the Middle East there is G A N a “great imbalance”: power relationships are contested and far from clear and alliances, as well as the resilience of state institu- E tions, are tested. Such a strategic outlook is especially conducive W MIDDL to violent conflict. One of the transitions currently underway has Bordering a New Middle East to do with state borders and their practical meaning. Frontiers, weak states and the great imbalance of power The chapters of the book cover (individually or in conjunction E EAST with other countries) Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, edited by Libya, Palestine, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies, Syria, Turkey. Roberto Menotti and Jessica Carter Roberto Menotti is Editor-in-Chief of Aspenia online. He is also Deputy Editor of Aspenia print edition and Senior Advisor - International Activities at Aspen Institute Italia. Among his recent publications, Mondo Caos (Laterza, 2010). Jessica Carter is co-creator and former Managing Editor of Aspenia online. Faisal J. Abbas, Francesca Borri, Doruk Ergun, John C. Hulsman, Lorenzo Kamel, Azzurra Meringolo, Nicola Pedde, Bernard E. Selwan Khoury, Salim Tamani, Mattia Toaldo An Aspenia online special 2015 Bordering a New Middle East Frontiers, weak states and the great imbalance of power edited by Roberto Menotti and Jessica Carter Faisal J. Abbas, Francesca Borri, Doruk Ergun, John C. Hulsman, Lorenzo Kamel, Azzurra Meringolo, Nicola Pedde, Bernard E. Selwan Khoury, Salim Tamani, Mattia Toaldo © December 2015, Aspen Institute Italia I edition Aspen Institute Italia Piazza Navona, 114 00186 Rome www.aspeninstitute.it Aspen Italia Views Coordinator: Paola Fienga All rights reserved. No part of this book shall be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means – electronic, mechani- cal, photocopying, recording, or otherwise – without written permis- sion from the publisher. No patent liability is assumed with respect to the use of the information contained herein. Although every precaution has been taken in the preparation of this book, the publisher and au- thor assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Neither is any liability assumed for damages resulting from the use of the information contained herein. 2 Aspen Institute Italia Aspen Institute Italia is a private, independent, international, nonpartisan and nonprofit association that encourages a free ex- change of opinions about knowledge, information and values. Aspen Institute Italia’s mission is to internationalize the coun- try’s entrepreneurial, political and cultural leadership, as well as to promote the free exchange of ideas and beliefs, in a search for common values, knowledge and interests. Programs focus on the problems and challenges facing today’s decision- makers in politics, economics, academia and the media, with particular attention to the business world. Independent but coordinated offices - in the US, France, Germany, Spain, Ro- mania, the Czech Republic, Ukraine, Japan, India and Mexico - form the Aspen international network. The Aspen Institute was founded in the United States in 1950, upon the initiative of a group of intellectuals and business- men. The aim was to relaunch a dialogue that would encour- age decision makers to share knowledge and values in the complicated international context that was just emerging from the devastation of World War II. In Italy, the Institute was es- tablished in 1984. Aspen Italia Views “Aspen Italia Views” is a series of studies and analyses on some of the major challenges facing contemporary societies. Pub- lished materials deal with topics ranging from culture, eco- nomics and technology, to politics and security, on both Italy and the international system. The series aims to offer analyti- cal tools for the main social phenomena, with special atten- tion to the business community. 3 Table of content I. Frontiers, weak states and the great imbalance of power 8 Roberto Menotti II. Libya: is a non-state worse than an authoritarian regime? 20 Mattia Toaldo Libya’s de facto partition 21 Libya’s external borders 23 Two potential silver linings 25 Time to reassess Western policy 28 III. Egypt between internal insecurity and regional ambition 28 Azzurra Meringolo Sinai: the sand box yet to be tamed 30 Libya: the brewing threat of war by proxy on the border 34 Conclusions 37 IV. Algeria, the deep roots of a nation state 40 Salim Tamani The burden of history 41 A large welfare state, political crisis and violence 42 National reconciliation, the assault on Islamism, and social cohesion as defense doctrine 44 Before the Arab Spring, Qaddafi the “separatist” 46 After the Arab Spring 47 5 V. Straddling Syria and Iraq: the ISIS epicenter 50 Francesca Borri The ideal enemy 52 Centrifugal forces and the people’s desperation 55 VI. Turkey: a changing national identity in the regional storm 60 Doruk Ergun Modern Turkey and the legacy of the Empire 61 Today’s identity politics 65 The lethal Kurdish issue, Syria, Iraq and refugees 68 VII. The Iranian nation state between internal evolution and external change 74 Nicola Pedde A political model under generational stress 75 Iran’s path between relative stability and social change 78 Tehran’s regional political and security outlook 81 VIII. Saudi Arabia as the custodian of stability 88 Faisal J. Abbas The Yemen case as a possible model 89 Securing the northern border 92 The cost of the status quo 93 IX. Israel and Palestine: mental and territorial borders 96 Lorenzo Kamel One state versus two: misleading alternatives 97 The role of international consensus 100 The conflict’s original dimension 104 References 105 6 X. Lebanon: a weak state and its complex national identity at risk 108 Bernard Selwan Khoury Identity and institutions 109 Multiple external influences and proxy wars 111 Federalism, divergent conceptions of the state and the weight of Hezbollah 11 4 The problem of Israel, and Lebanon as hostage to the region 11 6 XI. The ties that bind: an American perspective on Middle Eastern borders 120 John C. Hulsman American schools of thought and the Middle East 121 Conclusion: whatever works 126 XII. Short Biographies 128 7 I. Frontiers, weak states and the great imbalance of power Roberto Menotti Borders are a fundamental yet tricky issue in international politics. State borders are depicted on political maps as neat static lines, in rare case as dotted lines if officially contested; normally they do not move and in fact enshrine stability if not permanence. Yet, shifting frontiers are at the heart of many historical changes, not just through war – think of the German reunification in 1991. In some cases, even if the lines on maps are not redrawn or drawn in different colors, the meaning of borders changes quite radically – think of the process of Euro- pean integration since the 1950s. The region of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is experiencing important transitions in several respects, some of which are traumatic. We may describe the overall state of play in the Middle East as a “great imbalance”, in the sense that power relationships are contested and far from clear; as a consequence, the credibility of commitments and alliances, as well as the very resilience of state institutions, are repeat- edly tested. Such a strategic outlook is especially conducive to violent conflict, given that stability is neither guaranteed by a well-understood balance of power (via deterrence, diplomacy backed by credible military commitments, etc.), or pursued through institutional arrangements (formal cooperative secu- rity treaties, international mediation, etc.). In this unsettled context, one of the transitions currently under- way has to do with state borders and their practical meaning. Most states in the region belong to the theoretical category of “weak states” – by which we can generically indicate those po- litical entities which, despite being internationally recognized, have a limited capacity to supply basic “political goods” of comparatively adequate quality (especially the rule of law). A good proxy of the amount and quality of political goods supplied by the state is the “Human Development Index” of the United Nations Development Program – a widely used standard that combines socio-economic, institutional, human 9 I. Frontiers, weak states and the great imbalance of power rights and other indicators. As this and other similar indica- tors suggest, the weakness of a “weak state” is not necessarily external, but first and foremost internal, and it often equates with a lack of accountability. The problem is that an internally hollow structure will eventually fail to manage external pres- sures, despite typical efforts at centralization relying on the armed forces and the security apparatus. Precisely because these states exhibit significant gaps in their capability to enforce the rule of law, poor or very uneven eco- nomic performance, and sometimes openly contested institu- tions, they now also face direct threats or challenges to their borders that they are ill-equipped to manage peacefully. In- deed, the custodians of state borders risk being overwhelmed by regional forces that were not nearly as powerful or pervasive just a few years ago. In the MENA region, several governments currently in power are seen by their citizens (or by sizeable minorities among the population) as not fully legitimate and accountable; and members of the political establishment can often be described as “rentier elites”, given the sharp limits imposed on truly competitive politics as well as on the market economy. This situation has given rise to an apparent paradox: civil society (as opposed to state institutions) is mostly fragmented and unable to exert genuine popular sovereignty, but sectors of civ- il society are also restless and more mobilized than in the past – especially following the Arab revolts.