An Assessment of the 2026 U.S. Markets and Technology for Jewelry Manufactured by 3D-Precious Metal Printing (3D-PMP) of Gold, Platinum, and Palladium Powders Andrew C. Nyce, PhD Andrew Nyce Associates May 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS Highlights ................................................................................................................................................ 1 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 3 1.1 Examples of 3D-PMP Jewelry .......................................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Other Examples of 3D-PMP Jewelry ............................................................................................................... 5 2.0 Methodology for this Study .................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 In-Depth Interviews ........................................................................................................................................ 6 2.2 Literature Review ............................................................................................................................................ 6 2.3 SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6 2.4 Market Growth Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 6 3.0 3D-PMP Technology Overview ................................................................................................................ 7 3.1 The 3D-PMP Process ....................................................................................................................................... 7 3.2 3D-PMP Equipment ......................................................................................................................................... 7 3.2.1 3D-PMP Equipment Cost ................................................................................................................................. 7 3.2.2 Suppliers of 3D-PMP Equipment for Jewelry .................................................................................................. 7 3.2.3 3D-PMP Machines in Operation .................................................................................................................... 10 3.3 Design Considerations in 3D-PMP ................................................................................................................. 10 3.4 Powder Characteristics and Laser Capability ................................................................................................ 10 3.5 Production of Spherical Powders for 3D-PMP .............................................................................................. 11 3.6 Quality Control of Spherical Powders ........................................................................................................... 12 3.7 Powder Producers for 3D-PMP ..................................................................................................................... 13 4.0 SWOT Analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 14 4.1 Strengths ....................................................................................................................................................... 15 4.2 Weaknesses .................................................................................................................................................. 16 4.3 Opportunities ................................................................................................................................................ 16 4.4 Threats .......................................................................................................................................................... 17 5.0 The 2026 U.S. Market Forecast for 3D-PMP Precious Metal Alloy Jewelry ............................................. 18 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 18 5.1.1 Extrapolating to the Jewelry Industry from the Successes of 3D-PMP technology in Other Related Market Sectors .......................................................................................................................................................... 18 5.1.2 Using Historical Compound Annual Growth Rates of Related Disruptive Technologies to Forecast 3D-PMP jewelry Market Growth ................................................................................................................................. 18 5.1.3 Using a Penetration Potential Growth Methodology to Forecast the 3D-PMP Jewelry Market .................. 19 5.1.3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 19 5.1.3.2 Penetration Potentials and Assumptions ...................................................................................................... 20 5.1.3.3 Estimating Retails Sales for 3D-PMP jewelry in 2026 .................................................................................... 21 6.0 Summary and Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 23 About the Author ........................................................................................................................................................ 26 APPENDIX A: Study Contributors ................................................................................................................................. 28 APPENDIX B: Literature Review ................................................................................................................................... 29 APPENDIX C: Introduction to Additive Manufacturing Technology ............................................................................ 32 APPENDIX D: Assumptions for the 3D-PMP Penetration Potential Growth Model .................................................... 34 APPENDIX E: Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenarios for Retail Sales of 3D-PMP Jewelry in 2026 ................................ 35 An Assessment of the 2026 U.S. Markets and Technology for Jewelry Manufactured by 3D- Precious Metal Printing (3D-PMP) of Gold, Platinum, and Palladium Powders By Andrew C. Nyce, PhD Andrew Nyce Associates The objectives of this study were to forecast U.S. retail sales of 3D-PMP (Precious Metal Printing) jewelry in 2026 and to assess the technological and economic obstacles that must be overcome in order for these forecasted sales to be achieved. In 3D-PMP, a high energy laser is focused on a bed of powder and a two dimensional melted pattern is created on the bed of powder to a depth of several particle diameters. Through successive scans, a three-dimensional object, such as a piece of jewelry, can be produced. HIGHLIGHTS Based upon a market penetration analysis assessing the “Optimistic”, “Pessimistic”, and “Most Likely” U.S. retail sales of 3D-PMP jewelry in 2026, we arrived at the “Most Likely” market forecasts for 3D-PMP platinum, gold, and palladium jewelry, as shown in Table 1. 1 For this “Most Likely” market penetration scenario to be realized in 2026, the following technical, economic, and market growth barriers must be addressed. Barrier 1: Unacceptable Surface Roughness relative to investment castings Surface Roughness varies with part geometry, powder characteristics, and laser beam capabilities. Smoother surfaces are achieved perpendicular to the beam. Barrier 2: High Cost of 3D-PMP Machines Machines costs range from $225,000 to $275,000. Barrier 3: Slow Build Rates The build rates relative to casting, forging and CNC machining are relatively slow. Barrier 4: High Inventory Costs Associated with Precious Metal Alloys Powders For example, an 80mm diameter x 90mm high build chamber requires ~$210,000 of 18k gold powder. Barrier 5: Lack of Involvement from Major Integrated Jewelry Retailers and Manufacturers To date, none of the major U.S. players are offering jewelry made by 3D-PMP. Barrier 6: Lack of Real World Examples of Jewelry Designs and of Actual Jewelry that can only be Made by 3D-PMP There is a lacK of innovative jewelry designs based upon 3D-PMP. Barrier 7: Lack of Thin-Wall, Hollow, and Filigree Platinum Jewelry Offered in the U.S. MarketPlace Barrier 8: Lack of Identifiable U.S. Sales of 3D-PMP Gold, Platinum, or Palladium Jewelry in 2015 In this paper, we propose potential solutions to overcome these barriers based upon the results of our interviews with industry experts, a review of the published literature, and a SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threat) analysis of the potential for 3D-PMP jewelry to become a viable manufacturing method in the U.S. by 2026. 2 1.0 INTRODUCTION Under the general heading of Additive Manufacturing by Laser Beam Melting (LBM) of metal powders, the following acronyms are currently in use throughout the published literature: • SLM - Selective Laser Melting • SLS - Selective Laser Sintering • DMLS - Direct Metal Laser Sintering • LBM - Laser Beam Melting These