The Future of EU ATM M arkets Impacts of digitalisation and pricing policies on business models Willem Pieter de Groen Zachary Kilhoffer Roberto Musmeci The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is an independent policy research institute based in Brussels. Its mission is to produce sound analytical research leading to constructive solutions to the challenges facing Europe today. CEPS Paperbacks present analysis and views by leading experts on important questions in the arena of European public policy, written in a style geared to an informed but generalist readership. This report is the result of a six-month research project designed by the Financial Markets and Institutions unit of CEPS and led by Willem Pieter de Groen. The research team is further composed of CEPS Researchers Zachary Kilhoffer and Roberto Musmeci. The authors acknowledge useful comments and suggestions by Cinzia Alcidi, Daniel Gros and Karel Lannoo. The authors also thank Felice Simonelli, Antonella Zarra and Love Gleisner (CEPS) and Alexandra Campmas (University of Bordeaux) for their inputs. CEPS gratefully acknowledges the sponsorship received for this report from Euronet Worldwide. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors alone and do not reflect the opinion of Euronet or any other member of CEPS. Cover illustration Shutterstock/LDprod ISBN 978-94-6138-700-4 © Copyright 2018, CEPS All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior permission of the Centre for European Policy Studies. Centre for European Policy Studies Place du Congrès 1, B-1000 Brussels Tel: (32.2) 229.39.11 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: www.ceps.eu Table of Contents Executive summary ........................................................................................................................... i Business models.............................................................................................................................i Locations and characteristics ....................................................................................................... ii Costs and Revenues ...................................................................................................................... ii Sensitivity and trends .................................................................................................................. iii Dynamic currency conversion ..................................................................................................... iii Policy implications ....................................................................................................................... iv 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1 2. Methodology ............................................................................................................................ 3 2.1 Business models ............................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Locations and characteristics .......................................................................................... 4 2.3 Costs and revenues .......................................................................................................... 5 2.4 Country selection ............................................................................................................. 6 3. Belgium ..................................................................................................................................... 8 3.1 Business models ............................................................................................................... 8 3.2 Locations and characteristics .......................................................................................... 8 3.3 Costs and revenues ........................................................................................................ 12 3.3.1 Transactions ............................................................................................................ 12 3.3.2 Revenues ................................................................................................................. 12 3.3.3 Costs ........................................................................................................................ 12 3.4 Sensitivity and trends ..................................................................................................... 13 4. France ..................................................................................................................................... 15 4.1 Business models ............................................................................................................. 15 4.2 Locations and characteristics ........................................................................................ 15 4.3 Costs and revenues ........................................................................................................ 19 4.3.1 Transactions ............................................................................................................ 19 4.3.2 Revenues ................................................................................................................. 19 4.3.3 Costs ........................................................................................................................ 19 4.4 Sensitivity and trends ..................................................................................................... 20 5. Germany ................................................................................................................................. 22 5.1 Business models ............................................................................................................. 22 5.2 Locations and characteristics ........................................................................................ 23 5.3 Costs and Revenues ....................................................................................................... 27 5.3.1 Transactions ............................................................................................................ 27 5.3.2 Revenues ................................................................................................................. 27 5.3.3 Costs ........................................................................................................................ 28 5.4 Sensitivity and trends ..................................................................................................... 28 6. Greece .................................................................................................................................... 30 6.1 Business models ............................................................................................................. 30 6.2 Locations and characteristics ........................................................................................ 31 6.3 Costs and Revenues ....................................................................................................... 35 6.3.1 Transactions ............................................................................................................ 35 6.3.2 Revenues ................................................................................................................. 35 6.3.3 Costs ........................................................................................................................ 36 6.4 Sensitivity and trends ..................................................................................................... 36 7. Poland ..................................................................................................................................... 38 7.1 Business models ............................................................................................................. 38 7.2 Locations and characteristics ........................................................................................ 38 7.3 Costs and Revenues ....................................................................................................... 42 7.3.1 Transactions ............................................................................................................ 42 7.3.2 Revenues ................................................................................................................. 42 7.3.3 Costs ........................................................................................................................ 42 7.4 Sensitivity and trends ..................................................................................................... 43 8. Portugal .................................................................................................................................. 45 8.1 Business models ............................................................................................................. 45 8.2 Locations and characteristics ........................................................................................ 45 8.3 Costs and Revenues ....................................................................................................... 49 8.3.1 Transactions ...........................................................................................................