THE YEAR THAT SHOOK THE RICH: A REVIEW OF NATURAL DISASTERS IN 2011 The Brookings Institution – London School of Economics Project on Internal Displacement March 2012 Design: [email protected] Cover photo: © Thinkstock.com Back cover photos: left / © Awcnz62 | Dreamstime.com; right / © IOM 2011 - MPK0622 (Photo: Chris Lom) THE YEAR THAT SHOOK THE RICH: A REVIEW OF NATURAL DISASTERS IN 2011 By Elizabeth Ferris and Daniel Petz March 2012 PUBLISHED BY: THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION – LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS PROJECT ON INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT Bangkok, Thailand — Severe monsoon floods, starting in late July 2011, affected millions of people. A truck with passengers aboard drives through a heavily flooded street. Photo: UN/Mark Garten TABLE OF CONTENTS Acronyms ................................................................................................................................. vi Foreword ................................................................................................................................. ix Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. xi Introduction .............................................................................................................................. xv Chapter 1 The Year that Shook the Rich ...................................................... 1 Section 1 Disasters in the “Rich” World, Some Numbers ............................................ 5 Section 2 Japan: The Most Expensive Disaster in History .......................................... 9 Section 3 USA: Fourteen Billion Dollar Disasters ...................................................... 19 Section 4 Australia: Submerged in Queensland ......................................................... 29 Section 5 New Zealand: The Canterbury Quakes ....................................................... 33 Section 6 Learning from “The Year That Shook the Rich” ............................................ 37 Chapter 2 2011: Natural Disasters Reviewed ............................................... 45 Section 1 Disaster Statistics and Trends in 2011 ........................................................ 47 Section 2 A Brief Look at Some Major Disasters in 2011 ............................................ 55 Section 3 Estimating Economic Costs of Natural Disasters: An Imperfect Science .................................................................................. 69 Section 4 Trends in International Disaster Response ................................................. 79 Section 5 Humanitarian Funding in 2011 .................................................................... 87 Chapter 3 Somalia: Drought + Conflict = Famine? ...................................... 97 Section 1 Droughts: Slow, Long, Wide ......................................................................... 99 Section 2 2011: Drought in East Africa, Famine in Somalia ......................................... 103 Chapter 4 The Old Are the Future ................................................................. 115 Section 1 An Aging World ........................................................................................... 117 Section 2 Older Persons as a Vulnerable Group, Implications for Disaster Planning and Response ........................................................... 123 Section 3 Humanitarian Challenges in Assisting Older Persons ................................. 129 Section 4 The Old Are the Future: The Mega-Trend of Population Aging and an Active Role for Older People When Dealing With Disasters ........... 133 Annex Publications and Events on Natural Disasters and Climate Change by the Project on Internal Displacement ................... 137 IV THE YEAR THAT SHOOK THE RICH: A REVIEW OF NATURAL DISASTERS IN 2011 TABLES, GRAPHS AND MAPS Table 1: Disaster Statistics Corresponding to the “Scales of Devastation” Graph ............. xvii Graph 1: Scale of Devastation ............................................................................................ xviii Table 2: Disaster Affected, Fatalities and Damage – Comparing OECD and Global Totals 2001-2010 ............................................................................... 6 Table 3: Top 10 Natural Disasters in Japan by Fatalities Since 1900 ................................ 9 Table 4: Nuclear Plants in Selected Countries, 2011 ......................................................... 17 Table 5 Billion Dollar Disasters in the US in 2011 ............................................................. 20 Table 6: Number of Total Disaster Affected Populations in Australia 2001-2011 ............... 29 Table 7: Number of Total Disaster Affected Populations in New Zealand 2001-2011 ........ 33 Table 8: New Zealand Earthquake Insurance Claims for Christchurch Earthquakes 2010/11 ........................................................................................... 35 Table 9: Natural Disasters World-Wide, 2000-2011 ........................................................... 47 Table 10: Top 10 Natural Disasters in 2011 by Fatalities ..................................................... 48 Graph 2: Frequency of Natural Disasters in 2011 ............................................................... 49 Table 11: Comparing Hydrological Disasters 2001-2010 to 2011 ........................................ 50 Graph 3: Typical Influence of La Niña, June-August ........................................................... 52 Graph 4: Typical Influence of La Niña, December-February ............................................... 52 Table 12: Brazil, Floods and Landslides, January 2011 ....................................................... 55 Table 13: Sri Lanka, Floods and Landslides, January and February 2011 .......................... 56 Table 14: China, Floods, June and September 2011 ........................................................... 57 Table 15: Thailand, Floods, August 2011-January 2012 ...................................................... 58 Table 16: Turkey, Earthquake, 23 October 2011 .................................................................. 59 Table 17: Colombia, Floods, Landslides, April 2010-June 2011, September-December 2011 ................................................................................. 60 Table 18: Philippines, Typhoon Nesat and Tropical Storm Washi, September and December 2011 ............................................................................................. 61 Table 19: Top 5 Natural Disasters by Cost of Disaster Damage, 2011 ................................ 69 Graph 5: Funding for Humanitarian Responses to Natural Disasters, 2004-2011 .............. 88 Graph 6: International Funding for Natural Disaster Response 2011 .................................. 88 Table 20: Humanitarian Natural Disaster Funding per Affected Person in 2011 ................... 89 Table 21 Humanitarian Natural Disaster Funding Compared to Estimated Cost of Natural Disaster Damage, 2004-2011 ................................. 90 Table 22: Funding Provided for Selected UN 2011 Consolidated and Flash Appeals ......... 91 Graph 7: UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) 2011 Funding by Country ........ 93 Table 23: Top 5 Countries Receiving CERF Funds, 2011 .................................................... 94 Table 24: Funding for Humanitarian Responses to Natural Disasters, 2011 ....................... 95 V tabLE OF CONTENTS Graph 8: Horn of Africa Snapshot, December 2011 ............................................................ 105 Table 25: Somali Refugees in Neighboring Countries ......................................................... 108 Graph 9: Proportion of Population 60 Years and Over, World ............................................. 117 Graph 10: Life Expectancy in Select Countries ..................................................................... 119 Table 26: Global Population Growth and Growth of Population over 60 .............................. 120 Graph 11: Growth of Older People in Select Countries ......................................................... 120 Graph 12: Percentage of Population Aged 60 or Over (2009) .............................................. 121 Graph 13: Intersections of Potentially Vulnerable Populations in Situations of Natural Disasters ......................................................................... 124 Graph 14: Population Age 65+ in Select Countries with High Disaster Risk ......................... 133 VI THE YEAR THAT SHOOK THE RICH: A REVIEW OF NATURAL DISASTERS IN 2011 ACRONYMS AusAID Australian Agency for International Development CAP Consolidated Appeal Process CERA Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority CERF Central Emergency Response Fund CRED Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters DFID Department for International Development (UK) DDR Disaster Risk Reduction EHAP Emergency Humanitarian Action Plan EM-DAT Emergency Events Database (International Disaster Database) EQC Earthquake Commission FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FEWSNET Famine Early Warning Systems Network FSNAU Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit – Somalia FSNWG Food Security and Nutrition Working Group for East Africa FTS Financial Tracking Service GDP Gross Domestic Product IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IASC Inter-Agency Standing Committee ICVA International Council of Voluntary Agencies IDMC Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre IDP Internally Displaced Person IDRL International