Durham Middle East Papers ISRAEL AND THE COUNTERREVOLUTIONARIES: GAUGING TEL AVIV’S EVOLVING REGIONAL ALLIANCES AFTER THE ARAB UPRISINGS Jonathan A. Hoffman Durham Middle East Paper No. 102 Durham Middle East Papers Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies Durham University Al-Qasimi Building Elvet Hill Road Durham ISRAEL AND THE COUNTERREVOLUTIONARIES: Durham Middle East Papers No. 102 DH1 3TU ISSN 1476-4830 GAUGING TEL AVIV’S EVOLVING REGIONAL Tel: +44 (0)191 3345680 Month 2020 ALLIANCES AFTER THE ARAB UPRISINGS The Durham Middle East Papers series covers all aspects of the economy, politics, social science, history, literature and languages of the Middle East. Authors are invited to submit papers to the Editorial Board for consideration for publication. Jonathan A. Hoffman The views expressed in this paper are the author(s) alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher or IMEIS. All Rights Reserved. This paper cannot be photocopied or reproduced without prior permission. Durham Middle East Paper No. 102 © Jonathan A. Hoffman and Durham University, 2020 About The Institute Editorial Board The Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies (IMEIS), within the Professor Anoush Ehteshami Dr Colin Turner School of Government & International Affairs, is a Social Science-focused Exofficio member Reader in Islamic Thought in academic institute of excellence, research-led in ethos, with a track-record of Professor of International Relations the School of Government and internationally acclaimed research outputs across all sub-areas of its activity. in the School of Government and International Affairs Success in this respect obtains largely from the interdisciplinary nature of International Affairs the Institute’s activities and the fruitful interaction of political economists, Dr Carly Beckerman political scientists, historians and Islamicists, as well as with colleagues from Professor Clive Jones Art editor Professor of Regional Security in Assistant Professor in the Anthropology, Arabic, Archaeology, Geography, Business – all linked together the School of Government and International Relations of the Middle by their collective focus on the study of the Middle East and the Muslim world International Affairs, Durham East in the School of Government and in the widest sense. University International Affairs Dr Rory McCarthy Assistant Professor in Politics and About the Papers Islam in the School of Government and International Affairs Established in the early 1970s the multidisciplinary series includes topics on all aspects of the social sciences and arts in the Middle East, written by leading and emerging scholars in their respective fields. Advisory Board Professor Rory Miller Professor James Piscatori Georgetown University, Doha Australian National University Professor Beverly Milton-Edwards Sir Harold Walker, KCMG Queen’s University, Belfast Member, Luce Foundation Mr Richard Muir, CMG Chair, Luce Committee 4 5 Bio “What is happening in practice with Arab states has Jonathan Hoffman is a political science Ph.D. student at George never happened in our history, even when we signed peace Mason University’s SCHAR School of Policy and Government. agreements. In practice, cooperation in different ways and He holds an M.A. in Middle East and Islamic Studies and a B.A. in Global Affairs. at different levels isn’t necessarily above the surface, but what is below the surface is far greater than at any other His work has been featured in Middle East Policy, Open period in Israel’s history. It is a huge change.”1 Democracy, Responsible Statecraft, and other platforms. His research focuses on Middle East geopolitics and political Islam. Benjamin Netanyahu, 2017. Twitter: @Hoffman8Jon. 6 7 and diplomatic norms, and provide inviting opportunities revolutions also for other states to improve “ their positions.”3 Moreover, revolutions also challenge challenge existing existing conceptualizations of political and social order and often inspire peoples across conceptualizations INTRODUCTION national borders, threatening the authority and legitimacy of elites in other countries as of political and The Middle East has witnessed an unprecedented high-level rapprochement well. Due to this challenge to between the state of Israel and the regional regimes that have sought to quell the existing status quo and social order the tide of popular activism that erupted during the 2011 Arab Uprisings. the geopolitical restructuring ...” The shared desire of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), post- that often takes place 2013 Egypt, and Israel to dominate the regional balance of power and following revolutions, they can serve to dramatically increase the intensity return to the pre-uprisings status quo has resulted in a burgeoning ad-hoc of security competition between the new revolutionary regime and other alliance. This “Counterrevolutionary Bloc” (CRB) is also predicated on shared states, as well as between third party countries who often fear that a rival geopolitical and security concerns, and is opposed to the other two primary state could “take advantage of the revolution in order to improve its own ad-hoc regional alliances that have position.”4 This heightening of both domestic and foreign threat perceptions emerged: the bloc represented by becomes particularly acute when, instead of a single revolutionary episode, a “Revolutions Qatar and Turkey who have both revolutionary wave – groups of revolutions with similar objectives – rapidly sought greater independence in their emerges and several surrounding states witness mass mobilization in rapid foreign policies, and that of Iran succession to one another.5 Such a phenomenon, as evidenced during the 2011 are central and its regional proxies/allies. This Arab Uprisings, can serve to considerably alter a region’s strategic landscape. metastasizing “entente” between the three Arab states of the CRB and Israel It is within this dramatically altered strategic landscape that the to world is informal and driven by political and “Counterrevolutionary Bloc” (CRB) consisting of Israel, Saudi Arabia, the military elites. It is argued herein that UAE, and post-2013 Egypt has materialized. Counterrevolution refers to affairs Israeli political and military elites the policies and efforts pursued by status quo powers “designed to prevent ...” continue to perceive the currents revolutionary movements that have already gained some momentum from released by the 2011 Arab Uprisings coming to power.”6 In other words, counterrevolutions represent “collective in the same manner as elites in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt: as a serious and reactive efforts to defend the status quo and its varied range of dominant threat to their national security and regional interests. As will be shown, Israel elites against a credible threat to overturn them from below.”7 However, since has worked hand-in-hand with the Arab states of the CRB in the joint effort to revolutions can also alter the international political landscape via geopolitical squash calls for democracy and popular legitimacy; crush political Islam; and restructuring, counterrevolution must therefore be understood as more than push back against rivals Turkey, Qatar, and Iran. just an active opposition to revolutionary mass mobilization from below. Revolutions are central to world affairs and the construction of contemporary Indeed, counterrevolution must also be thought of as the process by which international order, and the 2011 Arab Uprisings are no different.2 By status quo powers hedge against those states that seek to capitalize on the abruptly altering the political landscape and challenging the existing status upheavals in order to challenge existing norms and structures and advance their quo, revolutions can “cause sudden shifts in the balance of power, alter the own geostrategic interests. Such a counterrevolutionary ethos – which often pattern of international alignments, cast doubt on existing agreements results in the generation of alliances with other states centered around regime 8 9 preservation and power projection in terms of degree and publicity. this expanding alliance has already – should therefore be thought of The matter of Palestine – which has “Understanding begun to influence several major as a collective endeavor to contain traditionally served as a serious point regional flashpoints, including three principal threats: normative, of regional contention and therefore the role of the ongoing rift within the Gulf ideological, and strategic.8 It is this a barrier to rapprochement – has Cooperation Council (GCC) and the collective counterrevolutionary largely been abrogated as political blockade of Qatar, the sidelining endeavor that serves as the and military elites in these countries unwavering of the Palestinian issue and the foundation of the CRB in the Middle continue to prioritize regime interests introduction of the United States’ East following the eruption of above anything else. Therefore, this American support proposed “peace plan” for the regional mass mobilization in 2011. high-level cooperation should not Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the be viewed as organic bottom-up fallout after the murder of Saudi Despite the absence of official normalization between the Zionist for these actors journalist Jamal Khashoggi, diplomatic relations between the state and Arab publics, but rather the Saudi-Iran and Israel-Iran state of Israel and the two Gulf Arab