Central Asia: Regional Developments and Implications for U.S. Interests Jim Nichol Specialist in Russian and Eurasian Affairs March 21, 2014 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL33458 Central Asia: Regional Developments and Implications for U.S. Interests Summary U.S. policy toward the Central Asian states has aimed at facilitating their cooperation with U.S. and NATO stabilization efforts in Afghanistan and their efforts to combat terrorism; proliferation; and trafficking in arms, drugs, and persons. Other U.S. objectives have included promoting free markets, democratization, human rights, energy development, and the forging of East-West and Central Asia-South Asia trade links. Successive Administrations have argued that such policies will help the states to become responsible members of the international community rather than to degenerate into xenophobic, extremist, and anti-Western regimes that contribute to wider regional conflict and instability. Soon after the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001, all the Central Asian “front-line” states offered over-flight and other support for coalition anti-terrorism operations in Afghanistan. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan hosted coalition troops and provided access to airbases. In 2003, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan also endorsed coalition military action in Iraq. About two dozen Kazakhstani troops served in Iraq until late 2008. Uzbekistan rescinded U.S. basing rights to support operations in Afghanistan in 2005 after the United States criticized the reported killing of civilians in the town of Andijon. The Kyrgyz leadership has notified the United States that it will not extend the basing agreement. U.S. forces will exit the “Manas Transit Center” by mid-2014 and move operations to other locations. In recent years, most of the regional states also have participated in the Northern Distribution Network for the transport of U.S. and NATO supplies into and out of Afghanistan. Policy makers have tailored U.S. policy in Central Asia to the varying characteristics of these states. U.S. interests in Kazakhstan have included securing and eliminating Soviet-era nuclear and biological weapons materials and facilities. U.S. energy firms have invested in oil and natural gas development in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and successive administrations have backed diverse export routes to the West for these resources. U.S. policy toward Kyrgyzstan has long included support for its civil society. In Tajikistan, the United States focuses on developmental assistance to bolster the fragile economy and address high poverty rates. The United States and others have urged the regional states to cooperate in managing their water resources. U.S. relations with Uzbekistan—the most populous state in the heart of the region—were cool after 2005, but recently have improved. Congress has been at the forefront in advocating increased U.S. ties with Central Asia, and in providing backing for the region for the transit of U.S. and NATO equipment and supplies into and out of Afghanistan. Congress has pursued these goals through hearings and legislation on humanitarian, economic, and democratization assistance; security issues; and human rights. During the 113th Congress, the Members may review assistance for bolstering regional border and customs controls and other safeguards, in order to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), combat trafficking in persons and drugs, and counter terrorism. Other possible interests include encouraging regional integration with South Asia and Europe and fostering energy and other resource security. Support for these goals also has been viewed as contributing to U.S. and NATO stabilization and reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. For several years, Congress has placed conditions on assistance to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan because of concerns about human rights abuses and lagging democratization (the Secretary of State may waive such conditions). Congress will continue to consider how to balance these varied U.S. interests in the region as U.S. and NATO military operations wind down in Afghanistan. Congressional Research Service Central Asia: Regional Developments and Implications for U.S. Interests Contents Most Recent Developments ............................................................................................................. 1 Historical Background ..................................................................................................................... 2 Overview of U.S. Policy Concerns .................................................................................................. 3 Post-September 11 and Afghanistan .......................................................................................... 8 Support for Operation Iraqi Freedom ........................................................................................ 9 Fostering Pro-Western Orientations ................................................................................................. 9 Russia’s Role ........................................................................................................................... 11 China’s Role ............................................................................................................................ 15 Obstacles to Peace and Independence: Regional Tensions and Conflicts ...................................... 17 Islamic Extremism and Terrorism ........................................................................................... 21 Terrorism and Conflict in Kazakhstan ............................................................................... 22 Incursions and Violence in Kyrgyzstan ............................................................................. 24 The 2010 Ethnic Clashes in Kyrgyzstan ............................................................................ 24 Attacks by Jama’at Kyrgyzstan Jaish al-Mahdi in 2010-2011 .......................................... 25 Terrorism and Conflict in Tajikistan .................................................................................. 26 The 1992-1997 Civil War in Tajikistan .............................................................................. 26 The 2010-2011 Attacks in Tajikistan.................................................................................. 26 The 2012 Instability in Mountainous Badakhshan ............................................................ 27 Terrorism and Conflict in Uzbekistan ............................................................................... 28 The 2005 Violence in Andijon, Uzbekistan ........................................................................ 29 The Summer 2009 Suicide Bombings and Attacks in Uzbekistan ...................................... 30 U.S. Designation of the IMU and IJU as Terrorist Organizations ........................................... 30 Democratization and Human Rights .............................................................................................. 32 Recent Political Developments in Kazakhstan ........................................................................ 33 Recent Political Developments in Kyrgyzstan ........................................................................ 34 Recent Political Developments in Tajikistan ........................................................................... 36 Recent Political Developments in Turkmenistan ..................................................................... 37 Recent Political Developments in Uzbekistan ......................................................................... 39 Human Rights .......................................................................................................................... 39 Trade and Investment ..................................................................................................................... 42 U.S. Regional Economic and Trade Policy ............................................................................. 43 The New Silk Road Vision ................................................................................................ 45 Energy Resources .................................................................................................................... 48 Kazakhstan’s Oil and Gas ................................................................................................. 49 Turkmenistan’s Gas ........................................................................................................... 51 Uzbekistan’s Oil and Gas .................................................................................................. 54 U.S. Regional Energy Policy ............................................................................................. 55 U.S. Aid Overview ......................................................................................................................... 57 Congressional Conditions on Kazakh and Uzbek Aid ............................................................. 58 U.S. Security and Arms Control Programs and Assistance............................................................ 60 Closure of the Karshi-Khanabad Airbase ................................................................................ 65 Efforts to Improve Security Relations ............................................................................... 65 The Manas Airbase/Transit Center .........................................................................................