DYNAMICS OF GRAND SKINK ( Oligosoma grande , Gray 1945) METAPOPULATIONS IN INDIGENOUS TUSSOCK GRASSLANDS AND EXOTIC PASTURE GRASSLANDS IN SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND Konstanze Gebauer A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand. June 2012 Abstract ii A major threat to biodiversity worldwide is human land-use change which increases habitat fragmentation and reduces landscape connectivity leading to species extinctions. For conservation biologists it is essential to understand the underlying factors that influence the population dynamics of species occurring in fragmented and isolated habitat. In this thesis, I investigate the impact of land-use change on the metapopulation dynamics of the endangered New Zealand grand skink (Oligosoma grande) which inhabits schist-rock outcrops scattered through indigenous tussock grasslands and exotic pasture grasslands in central South Island, New Zealand. In particular, I explore the influence of habitat patch characteristics and the type of surrounding grassland type (matrix) on the metapopulation dynamics of the grand skinks by using a spatially explicit metapopulation simulation model. To develop a spatially explicit simulation model distinct habitat patches have to be defined. Therefore, I attached VHF-radio transmitters to 57 grand skinks to estimate their habitat use and movements. Individual grand skinks inhabited predominantly a single rock-outcrop. However, home ranges were smaller when the matrix surrounding the outcrop was pasture grasslands, and the rare between-outcrop movements were mostly recorded when the matrix was dominated by tussock grasslands. Therefore, individual rock-outcrops were considered habitat patches in the metapopulation models. I also investigated if land-use change impacted on the body condition of grand skinks using a long-term data-set. Especially in autumn, grand skinks on outcrops in pasture grasslands had a better body condition compared to grand skink inhabiting outcrops in tussock grasslands. However, the probability of being pregnant was lower for grand skinks inhabiting rock-outcrops in the pasture matrix than for grand skinks on outcrops in the tussock matrix. Lower pregnancy probabilities could directly affect grand skink population dynamics. At the population-level the analysis of a 3-year data-set of grand skink occupancy of rock-outcrops in both matrix grassland types using methods to account for incomplete detectability of the grand skinks, revealed that habitat patch quality Abstract iii (outcrop structure and vegetation cover on the outcrop), habitat patch size and matrix grassland type strongly influenced colonisation and extinction probabilities. Grand skink populations on rock-outcrops surrounded by a matrix of pasture grasslands had higher probability of extinction and, once extinct, a lower probability of being re-colonised. Simulating the occupancy of outcrops on a landscape scale showed that grand skink populations in pasture grasslands are likely to go extinct while tussock grassland populations were stable or even increasing. Using the simulation model to investigate which outcrop in an un-inhabited landscape provides the most appropriate translocation site, revealed that rock-outcrop density was the most important factor for grand skinks, not outcrop quality. This study showed that indirect and direct effects from the matrix surrounding the habitat patches can have strong influence on metapopulation dynamics. For successful conservation management, these effects need to be taken into consideration in the design of conservation strategies. I demonstrated how simulation models can be used to decide on appropriate translocation sites for grand skinks. Using species-specific information, and integrating habitat-patch and landscape attributes, metapopulation simulations can be useful tools in conservation research. Acknowledgements iv This research would not have been possible without the support and assistance of a great number of people. Firstly, I would like to thank my supervisors Kath Dickinson (Botany Department), Phil Seddon (Zoology Department) and Peter Whigham (Information Sciences Department). Thank you for your encouragement, patience, enthusiasm and advice over the last few years. The research for this thesis was assisted financially through generous contributions from the Miss E. L. Hellaby Indigenous Grasslands Research Trust, the Brenda Shore Award and a University of Otago Postgraduate Scholarship. Leon Watson, Greg Hand and Matt Sutton kindly provided free, unlimited and friendly access to their properties. The Department of Conservation kindly provided accommodation at its field base at Macraes Flat. A big thank you goes to everybody that made my stay at Macraes so enjoyable. I’m also thankful to the DOC Grand and Otago Skink- team for their advice and assistance during my ‘skinking’ adventures. Special thanks go to Nathan Whitmore for the valuable interchange of ideas, information and laughs. Further thanks go to Brian Niven (Mathematics and Statistics Department) and Martin Krkosek (Zoology Department) for statistical support and advice. Mike Denham (Surveying Department) and Henry Holdaway provided me with fantastic advice concerning everything ‘GPS’ (equipment and software), while Alison Cree (Zoology Department) and Kelly Hare (Zoology Department) gave time and advice on everything ‘Herpetology’, thank you. And, thank you to all those valuable people at the Botany and Zoology Department who were a great support during the past years. Special thanks to all the people that spent time with me in the field enduring sun, snow, rain, hail, strong southerly winds or no winds at all: Tim Lever, Rosie Mueller, Sam Haultain, Steffie Hartman and Michael Bauer; and to Kim Harris whose parallel study enabled vivid discussions and shared field work time. Acknowledgements v Finally, I’m grateful for the support that my family and friends offered. Thanks to everybody who patiently listened to skink stories and complaints, and who shared this journey with me here in Dunedin and overseas. Lastly, I would like to express a heartfelt thanks to my partner Tim, without whom this journey would not have been possible. Table of Contents vi ABSTRACT………………………………………………………………………...ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS………………………………………………………...iv TABLE OF CONTENTS………..………………………………………………….vi LIST OF FIGURES…………………...………………………………………….....x LIST OF TABLES………………………………………………………………...xiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ...........................................................................................................1 Habitat fragmentation and extinctions ..............................................................2 Modelling fragmented populations ...................................................................5 The grand skink (Oligosoma grande) as a model system..................................7 Thesis structure ................................................................................................8 CHAPTER TWO Home range size and movements of grand skinks .............................................11 Introduction....................................................................................................12 Methods .........................................................................................................15 Study location......................................................................................15 Data collection.....................................................................................17 Home range analysis............................................................................20 Home range estimation…………………………………......20 Analysis…………………………………………………… 24 Activity analysis..................................................................................25 Movements of grand skinks………………………….……..25 Analysis…………………………………………………….26 Results ...........................................................................................................28 Home range analysis............................................................................29 Movement analysis..............................................................................33 Discussion......................................................................................................38 Table of Contents vii CHAPTER THREE Differences in body condition between populations of grand skinks in modified and native grasslands ...........................................................................43 Introduction....................................................................................................44 Methods .........................................................................................................47 Study species.......................................................................................47 Study site.............................................................................................48 Data.....................................................................................................49 Statistical analysis ...............................................................................51 Accounting for tail-loss .........................................................51 Scaled mass body condition index (M)………………………53 Modelling body condition differences ...................................54 Modelling the probability of pregnancy.................................55 Results ...........................................................................................................57