Australian Sustainable Energy – by the numbers (inspired by Sustainable Energy – without the hot air, by David J.C. MacKay, FRS) by Peter Seligman Version 1.3 Melbourne Energy Institute University of Melbourne July 2, 2010 http://www.energy.unimelb.edu.au Melbourne Energy Institute The University of Melbourne Growing concerns about energy resource security, the adverse environmental impacts of energy production and inequities in access to energy services are crucial to national and global policy considerations. The increasing recognition that our energy systems need to be made more sustainable, environmentally be- nign and adaptable, while also providing reliable and affordable supply to more and more people, presents a daunting challenge. In particular, the prospect that rising greenhouse gas concentrations are leading to unprecedented and poten- tially irreversible climate change makes redesigning our energy systems one of the most important challenges of our time. Framing clear pathways to a more certain energy future is inherently interdisciplinary. Such pathways must be in- formed by a deep understanding of emerging technologies, market economics, resource prospects, environmental impacts, regulatory frameworks and social equity issues. The delivery of such pathways requires new research strategies that transcend traditional lines of enquiry that link the many different ways of thinking that inform how modern societies work and prosper. The Melbourne Energy Institute brings together the work of more than 200 researchers engaged across seven faculties at the University of Melbourne to help to meet this chal- lenge. Title Details: Australian Sustainable Energy - by the numbers Subtitle: (inspired by Sustainable Energy - without the hot air, by David J.C. MacKay, FRS) ISBN: 978-0-646-53716-0 (Paperback) Publication Date: 06/2010 Cover photograph: Mike Sandiford Contents Foreword ............................................. .... v Preface ................................................ vii Summary and conclusions . ix 1 Introduction . 1 1.1 How much energy are we using? . 2 2 What can we do? . 5 2.1 Solar . 5 2.2 Wind ................................................ 9 2.3 Offshore wind . 10 2.4 Geothermal . 10 2.5 Geothermal energy under coal mines . 13 2.6 WavePower .......................................... 13 2.7 Tidal . 16 2.8 Hydro . 18 2.9 Pumped storage . 19 2.10 Biofuels – Bioethanol . 20 2.11 Clean coal, carbon capture and storage . 21 2.12 Carbon capture and conversion to biofuel . 22 2.13 Biochar- Negative carbon fuels? . 24 2.14 Thorium fuelled nuclear power . 26 2.15 Fusion and hybrid reactors . 27 3 How are we travelling? . 29 3.1 Uptake of renewable energy . 31 3.2 The government plan . 33 4 A strategy for Australia . 35 4.1 Getting the mix right . 36 4.2 Design exercise . 36 4.3 Pipes and turbines . 42 4.4 Wiring it all up . 42 i 5 The bill . 45 5.1 Job creation or damage to the economy? . 46 5.2 Could we go 100% renewable? . 46 5.3 What will the electricity cost? . 47 5.4 How much CO 2 will be produced in building this system? . 48 5.5 Security of supply . 48 5.6 Electricity grid stability . 49 5.7 Thermal storage . 50 5.8 What have I left out? . 50 5.9 Could we build it? The liberty ship approach . 51 6 What about all the other energy we use? . 55 6.1 Electrifying the transport fleet . 56 6.2 What about the rest? . 57 7 Bang for Buck in CO 2 abatement . 61 7.1 Random acts of senseless greenness . 61 7.2 The calculated approach . 61 7.3 Money equals carbon dioxide . 63 7.4 The capital cost of power plants . 64 7.5 Wind farm Co-ops . 64 7.6 Calculating the cost of CO 2 abatement . 65 7.6.1 LED replacement of fluorescent lights . 67 7.6.2 A tale of two solar photovoltaic arrays . 69 7.7 Efficiency, Effectiveness and Potential . 73 7.8 Bang for buck comparison . 74 7.9 What makes sense? . 75 8 Transporting negative CO 2 ................................. 79 8.1 Carbon offsetting . 79 8.2 Biomass – sequestration . 81 8.3 A personal strategy . 83 8.4 Rebates and Renewable Energy Certificates . 84 8.5 Personal cost or gross cost? . 86 9 Efficiency and waste . 87 9.1 Fridges . 87 9.2 Ducted heating system . 88 9.3 Water heating . 90 9.4 Floor Insulation . 93 9.5 The CSIRO AccuRate software . 94 ii 9.6 Domestic heating and cooling statistics . 95 9.6.1 Heating and cooling . 95 9.6.2 Hot water systems . 95 9.7 Solar air conditioning . 97 9.8 Waste reduction . 98 9.9 Waste management . 99 9.10 Desalination . 100 9.10.1 Multiple Effect Distillation . 101 9.11 Burning fuel like there’s no tomorrow . 102 9.12 Heating the great outdoors . 102 9.13 A domestic central heating, cogeneration heat pump. 103 9.14 Electric cars . 103 10 Market forces . 105 11 Putting it all together . 107 11.1 Other studies like this . 110 A Appendix . 113 A.1 Bang for Buck Calculations . 113 A.2 Cost of money, electricity and fuel . 113 A.3 Hybrid solar power – case study . 116 A.3.1 Payback period for complete system . 117 A.3.2 Optimisation of the system . 117 A.3.3 Collector angle . ..