Hexham Housing Needs Assessment 2016 Northumberland County Council Hexham Town Council Acomb Parish Council Final Report October 2016 Main Contact: Dr Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0800 612 9133 Website: www.arc4.co.uk © 2016 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180) Hexham 2016 HNA – Final Report Page | 2 Table of Contents 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................... 7 Background and objectives .............................................................................. 7 National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) requirements ............................. 7 Definitions ......................................................................................................... 8 Geography ........................................................................................................ 9 Research methodology ................................................................................... 11 Presentation of data ....................................................................................... 11 Report structure .............................................................................................. 11 2. Policy and strategic review.......................................................................... 13 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 13 Local strategic priorities .................................................................................. 13 Concluding comments .................................................................................... 15 3. Housing market dynamics in Hexham ........................................................ 17 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 17 Dwelling profile ............................................................................................... 17 Housing tenure ............................................................................................... 18 Household characteristics .............................................................................. 23 Migration and moving patterns ....................................................................... 23 Households planning to move ........................................................................ 25 Concluding comments .................................................................................... 25 4. Housing need, affordable housing requirements and relative affordability ................................................................................................... 27 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 27 Current households in need............................................................................ 27 Affordable housing requirements .................................................................... 29 Relative affordability of housing options ......................................................... 31 Concluding comments .................................................................................... 39 5. Future housing market demand in Hexham ............................................... 40 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 40 Suggested future development profile of market dwellings ............................ 40 Executive housing .......................................................................................... 41 Self-Build ........................................................................................................ 43 Housing for older people ................................................................................ 43 Households previously homeless ................................................................... 45 Householder views on dwelling requirements ................................................ 46 Summary ........................................................................................................ 47 6. Conclusions .................................................................................................. 48 The current housing market ............................................................................ 48 Housing need ................................................................................................. 48 October 2016 Hexham 2016 HNA – Final Report Page | 3 Future housing market demand ...................................................................... 49 The ageing population and specialist need .................................................... 49 Final comments .............................................................................................. 50 Introduction to Technical Appendices .................................................................. 51 Technical Appendix A: Research Methodology ................................................... 52 Overall approach ............................................................................................ 52 Baseline dwelling stock information and survey sample errors ...................... 52 Technical Appendix B: Policy Review ................................................................... 54 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 54 Legislative and policy background .................................................................. 54 Emerging policy and legislation ...................................................................... 56 Overview of housing policy themes ................................................................ 60 National housing reviews ................................................................................ 67 Technical Appendix C: Housing need calculations ............................................. 68 Summary of contents ...................................................................................... 68 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 69 Stage 1: Current need ................................................................................... 71 Stage 2: Future need ..................................................................................... 73 Stage 3: Affordable housing supply ............................................................... 74 Stage 4: Estimate of annual housing need .................................................... 76 Technical Appendix D: Stakeholder survey findings ........................................... 80 Appendix E: Monitoring and updating .................................................................. 84 A framework for updating the housing needs model and assessment of affordable housing requirements .................................................................... 84 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 84 Updating of baseline housing needs and affordable housing requirements ... 84 Concluding comments .................................................................................... 85 List of Tables Table 3.1 House prices in the study area 2010-2015 .......................................... 19 Table 3.2 Lower Quartile and median house price and income required to be affordable ............................................................................................. 20 Table 3.3 Private sector rental prices in the study area 2010-2015 ..................... 21 Table 3.4 Local Housing Allowance Rates 2016 (Weekly) .................................. 22 Table 3.5 Residential mobility – movement between different tenures ................ 25 Table 3.6 First choice destination of households planning to move in next five years .................................................................................................... 25 Table 4.1 Housing need in the Hexham area ...................................................... 28 Table 4.2 Housing need by tenure ....................................................................... 29 October 2016 Hexham 2016 HNA – Final Report Page | 4 Table 4.3 Housing need by household type ......................................................... 29 Table 4.4 Annual affordable housing imbalance by property size and designation 2016/17 to 2020/21 (including affordable capacity) .......... 30 Table 4.5 Tenure preferences of existing households in need and newly- forming households requiring affordable housing ................................ 31 Table 4.6 Property type preferences .................................................................... 31 Table 4.7 Cost of alternative tenure options ........................................................ 32 Table 4.8 Income required for alternative tenure options ..................................... 33 Table 4.9 Assumptions in assessing income required for alternative tenure options ................................................................................................. 34 Table 4.10 Percentage of households who could/could not afford the tenure option ................................................................................................... 37 Table 5.1 Open market dwelling stock and preferences ...................................... 41 Table 5.2