KNOWLEDGE SYNTHESIS: IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON NUNAVIK’S MARINE AND COASTAL ENVIRONMENT Report presented to the Ministère des Transports du Québec Final Report July 2020 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON NUNAVIK’S MARINE AND COASTAL ENVIRONMENT: KNOWLEDGE SYNTHESIS Final Report May 2020 PROJET COORDINATION Geneviève Trudel, MTQ Stéphanie Bleau, Ouranos PRODUCTION AND CARTOGRAPHY Sonia Hachem, Ouranos Stéphanie Bleau, Ouranos Raphaël Desjardins, Ouranos SCIENTIFIC REVISION Antoine Boisson, Université Laval Isabelle Charron, Ouranos Hélène Côté, Ouranos Julie Cunningham, Ouranos Dany Dumont, UQAR Yves Gauthier, INRS-ETE LINGUISTIC REVISION Nom de réviseur/use linguistique 1, Affiliation TRANSLATOR Julien Sandiford (Knowledge Synthesis and English outreach tools) Nom du traducteur (Inuktitut Executive Summary and flyer) PAGE LAYOUT Prénom Nom, Affiliation Project title: Impact of Climate Change on Nunavik’s Marine and Coastal Environment: Knowledge Synthesis Project number: T2.1 (Action 28.2 PACC 2013-2020) Suggested citation: Hachem S. and Bleau S., (2020). Impact of Climate Change on Nunavik’s Marine and Coastal Environment: Knowledge Synthesis. Report presented to the Ministère des transports du Québec. Ouranos. Montréal. 70 p. + appendices. The results and opinions presented in this publication are entirely the responsibility of the authors and do not commit Ouranos or its members. Any further use of the document will be at the sole risk of the user, and the authors shall bear no liability nor be subject to legal action. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This Knowledge Synthesis is an MTQ initiative falling under the framework of action 28.2, priority 28 of the 2013-2020 Climate Change Action Plan (PACC, Plan d’action sur les changements climatiques). This non-technical document was financed by the Fonds vert 2020 and coordinated by Ouranos. The study findings presented in this decision-support and knowledge transfer tool come mainly from various research projects carried out as part of a research initiative led by the Ministère des Transports du Québec under the name “Évaluation de l’impact des changements climatiques sur les infrastructures maritimes du Nunavik et solutions d’adaptation (Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on Nunavik Marine Infrastructure and Adaptation Solutions),” started in 2009 in the context of the Plan d’action sur les changements climatiques 2006-2012. It will continue as part of the PACC 2013- 2020. The authors would like to acknowledge the great contribution made by the members of the monitoring committee who participated in the project and in the various revision phases that helped improve the tool: Anick Guimond (MTQ), Geneviève Trudel (MTQ), Laurie Beaupré (Makivik), Véronique Gilbert (ARK), Jean-Denis Bouchard (MSP), Julie Veillette (MELCC) and Frédérique Gosselin-Lessard (MTQ). The authors would also like to thank Isabelle Charron and Julie Cunningham from the Knowledge Mobilization team, and Hélène Côté from the Climate Science and Climate Services team, who served as internal Ouranos revisers, as well as external scientific revisers Antoine Boisson from CEN, Dany Dumont from ISMER and Yves Gauthier from INRS-ETE, whose comments and corrections helped make the text clearer, simpler and more concise. This initiative brought together many participants from various public regional and local government organizations, as well as academic and private organizations. The MTQ and Ouranos would like to thank the following collaborators and representatives for their participation in this research and development initiative from its inception in 2009: • Kativik Regional Government (KRG) • Makivik Corporation • Ministère de la Sécurité publique (MSP) • Ministère de l'Environnement et de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques (MELCC) • INRS-ETE • UQAR-ISMER • CEN, ULaval • CIMA+ • Environnement Illimité Inc. • LaSalle NHC i SUMMARY The Ministère des Transports du Québec (MTQ) has coordinated and/or financed several studies on the impacts of climate change on Nunavik’s marine and coastal environment between 2009 and 2020 in the context of various iterations of the PACC. In order to ensure access to and the effective transfer of the understanding developed in the context of these research projects, as well as the use of the acquired knowledge in the application and monitoring of adaptation measures by various stakeholders at the regional and local government and private sector levels, the results have been collected in a decision-support tool that presents the key findings. Context of the project The impacts of climate change are already more significant in Nunavik, and these effects will continue to intensify. Increases in air temperature (4 to 7.5°C) and precipitation (20 to 30%) will be greater than in the rest of Quebec by the end of the 21st century, mainly in the fall and winter. Since coastal infrastructure will be affected by these changes, the MTQ (in collaboration with the Kativik Regional Government, or KRG) wanted to document and improve the understanding of several hydrological and climate hazards with a potential impact on the medium- and long-term integrity and longevity of Nunavik’s coastal facilities. The objective of the approach is to optimize the planning, maintenance and rehabilitation of the infrastructure and establish measures to strengthen its climate change resilience. This Knowledge Synthesis deals with Nunavik specifically, providing a portrait of the hazards at the regional level and the level of its 14 communities. It provides integrated insights on the vulnerabilities in order to evaluate risks and direct the sustainable adaptation of marine infrastructure. It is accompanied by a technical report explaining the scientific and technical concepts that made the research and findings possible, as well as a Powerpoint presentation and flyer presenting the results in plain language. Main study findings As result of the later ice formation period in the fall and earlier melting in the spring, the ice-free period could be longer by six weeks to two months. The period of unstable sea and landfast ice could be longer. In December, ice concentrations could decrease to 40 and 60% on the coasts from Ivujivik to Kangiqsualujjuaq and ice formation could cease entirely between Ivujivik and Inukjuak by the 2040- 2070 period. Extreme high and low water levels that previously had 100-year return periods could occur every 50 years by approximately the middle of the 21st century. Most coastal sites in Nunavik could experience positive storm surges of up to 1 m and negative storm surges at the same levels as in the recent past. However, post-glacial rebound in Nunavik could compensate for the higher global sea level, and could even lead to lower or unchanged relative sea levels at several sites (especially in Hudson Bay) by the end of the 21st century, thus reducing the impact of positive storm surges. On the other hand, extreme negative storm surges and the reduced rise in the global sea level could lead to lower extreme low levels with greater coastal impacts. Knowledge integration for the implementation of adaptation measures Coastal risks exist where potential hazards coincide with the presence of populations or infrastructure. In Nunavik, the population of the 14 Inuit communities and Deception Bay are located on the coastline and are thus potentially at risk. The understanding of climate risks and the factors that influence the vulnerability and risks of Nunavik’s marine and coastal environments is growing, providing an already solid foundation for solution implementation. Decision makers and local populations are more ii conscious of climate issues than ever (Shah, 2018), and conditions are ideal for the implementation of adaptation measures. In fact, there have already been a number of initiatives aimed at successful adaptation in northern environments. Construction standards specific to the North have already been established, and action and outreach programs to facilitate an understanding of climate change and risk-reduction measures are also in place. Of course, some knowledge-related challenges remain, but these issues should not prevent the implementation and monitoring of adaptation measures. These measures will continue to be improved as social acceptance grows and our understanding becomes clearer and more detailed. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................................ i SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................ ii LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................................................... vi List OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................................... viii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND acronyms .................................................................................................. x GENERAL INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 1 1. CONTEXT OF THE KNOWLEDGE SYNTHESIS .................................................................................... 2 1.1 POPULATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE PROFILE ....................................................................... 2 1.2 Nunavik CLIMATE PROFILE .....................................................................................................