Data Points Climatological Trends in Utah June 2019 KEM C. GARDNER POLICY INSTITUTE We are an honest broker of INFORMED RESEARCH that guides INFORMED DISCUSSIONS and leads to INFORMED DECISIONS™ Background n the 2018 General Session the Utah Legislature passed House Concurrent Enrolled Copy H.C.R. 7 CONCURRENT RESOLUTION ON ENVIRONMENTAL AND IResolution 7, which among other items ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP prioritized the state’s “understanding and 2018 GENERAL SESSION use of sound science to address causes of STATE OF UTAH a changing climate.” The resolution also Chief Sponsor: Rebecca P. Edwards seeks to find positive solutions. Senate Sponsor: Todd Weiler The Kem C. Gardner Policy sheds light Be it resolved by the Legislature of the state of Utah, the Governor concurring therein: on important issues impacting Utah and WHEREAS, Utah has a tradition of supporting good stewardship of our land, air, and water; the nation. We present in this Data Points WHEREAS, Utah is a leader in technological innovation, ingenuity in problem-solving, and working together to create solutions; booklet climatological trends, extreme WHEREAS, preservation of Utah’s economic longevity and role as a leader in fiscal weather events, air quality indicators, responsibility depends on prudent management of natural resources; WHEREAS, protection, conservation, and reasonable management of the natural and health information related to a environment are essential principles of responsible stewardship; changing climate. WHEREAS, Utah recognizes the inherent worth of our natural resources, in addition to We share these trends to aid their economic value, in their contribution to our identity and their role in inspiring creativity, strengthening families, and providing for future generations; policymakers and the public with WHEREAS, the Department of Health has issued a report outlining the increased risk of informed decisions. extreme weather events, including wildfires, water scarcity, and flooding; WHEREAS, the impacts of a changing climate may affect Utah citizens and impair productivity in key economic areas; WHEREAS, any efforts to mitigate the risks of, prepare for, or otherwise address our changing climate and its effects should not constrain the economy nor its global competitiveness; and WHEREAS, Utah recognizes that stewardship includes fostering and maintaining resilient ecosystems that have the capacity to adapt to our changing environment: NOW, THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED that the Legislature of the state of Utah, the Governor concurring therein, commits to working constructively, using our heritage of technological ingenuity, innovation, and leadership to create and support economically viable and broadly supported private and public solutions, including in rural communities. BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that we should prioritize our understanding and use of sound science to address causes of a changing climate and support innovation and environmental stewardship in order to realize positive solutions. BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that the Legislature and the Governor encourage individuals, corporations, and state agencies to reduce emissions through incentives and support of the growth in technologies and services that will enlarge our economy in a way that is both energy efficient and cost effective. BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that a copy of this resolution be sent to the members of Utah’s congressional delegation. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 1 Climatological Trends in Utah Health Impacts Tertiary Event Secondary Event Air Pollution n Asthma, cancer, lung and Primary Event respiratory disease, heart Warmer disease, stroke, and preterm birth Temperatures n Poor mental health, autism, anxiety, depression, and attention disorders Extreme Increased n Decreased life expectancy Weather PM2.5 Greenhouse Conditions Drought Gas Emissions (Forest res, ash n Decreased liver function oods, drought) n Neurological diseases and disorders Decreasing Increased Warmer Temperatures Low-elevation Ozone n Increased transmission of Snow Pack Levels pest-borne diseases n Heat exhaustion n Foodborne diseases and decreased nutrition “It is extremely likely that human activities... are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.” U.S Global Change Research Program. Fourth National Climate Assessment 2 Climatological Trends in Utah Historical Cycles Cycles of temperature and carbon dioxide Current 400 350 300 CO /ppm CO2 concentration, ppm 250 200 4 150 0 Antarctic temperature,˚C ˚C -4 -8 -12 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Years before present Over the last 800,000 years, the earth’s climate has alternated between ice ages and warm periods. During this cycle, temperatures at the South Pole have risen and fallen by about 10 degrees Centigrade during a cycle. The figure above highlights a recent spike in carbon dioxide levels from 275 ppm to 400 ppm. Source: United States National Academies of Sciences, Climate Change: Evidence and Cause Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 3 Source: National Centers for Environmental Information and Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites –North andSatellites Climate Carolina Institute for andCooperative Information Environmental for Centers National Source: Source: National Centers for Environmental Information and Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites –North andSatellites Climate Carolina Institute for andCooperative Information Environmental for Centers National Source: 4 Observed number of very cold nights inUtah Observed nights number ofvery cold Source: National Centers for Environmental Information and Cooperative Institute for Climate andSatellites Climate Institute for andCooperative Information Environmental for Centers National Source: 0 below withtemperatures thenumber ofnights years, Over thelasttwenty-five elevation. andhighaverage itssemi-arid climate dueto warm nights Utah hasnotexperienced Typically Source: National Centers for Environmental Information and Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites andSatellites Climate Institute for andCooperative Information Environmental for Centers National Source: Observed number of very warm nights inUtah Observed nights number ofvery warm Temperatures Nights withNights with Nights withNights with TemperaturesTemperatures below 0˚ below F 0˚ F TemperaturesTemperatures above 75˚ above F 75˚ F 10 12 10 12 0 1 0 2 1 3 2 4 3 4 4 6 4 8 6 8 1900-041900-04 1900-041900-04 1910-141910-14 1910-141910-14 1920-241920-24 1920-241920-24 1930-341930-34 1930-341930-34 1940-441940-44 1940-441940-44 1950-551950-55 1950-551950-55 1960-641960-64 1960-641960-64 o Fhasdecreased. 1970-741970-74 1970-741970-74 1980-841980-84 1980-841980-84 Climatological Trends inUtah Trends Climatological 1990-941990-94 1990-941990-94 2000-042000-04 2000-042000-04 2010-142010-14 2010-142010-14 Snow Pack April 1 Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) at Ben Lomond Peak and Ben Lomond Trail 80 80% 70 70% 60 60% 50 50% 40 40% 30 30% SWE (Inches) 20 20% 10 10% Percent dierence 0 0% 60 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Ben Lomond Peak Ben Lomond Trail / Percentage and trend of SWE at at 7689 feet at 5972 feet Trail compared to Peak 40 Warming temperatures have spurred more snowpack melting at lower elevations relative to snowpacks at higher elevations on the same mountain. Ben Lomond Trail snowpacks levels have declined over the four decades relative to snowpacks20 at higher elevations at Ben Lomond Peak. SWE (Inches) Source: Natural0 Resources Conservation Service, National Water & Climate Center, Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2018 Weather Events Increased Frequency of Utah Flash Floods 120 100 80 80 60 70 40 60 20 Number of Events 50 0 40 9 6 199 200 1996 301997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 SWE (Inches) Floods Flash Floods 20 A flash flood is defined10 as a rapid and extreme flow of high water into a normally dry area beginning within six hours of a causative event, usually a thundershower.0 A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture—about 7 percent more per 1.8°F (1°C) of warming. Storms that arise in increased atmospheric moisture conditions produce heavier rainfall, creating extreme weather events. 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center Ben Lomond Peak at 7689 feet Ben Lomond Trail at 5972 feet Kem C. Gardner Policy100% Institute 5 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Weather Events (continued) Palmer Drought Severity Index in Utah, 1895-2019 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 PDSI 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Date The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) indicates moisture deficiency (values below zero) or abundance (values above zero). Water supply comprises precipitation to recharge soil moisture, groundwater, lakes, and reservoirs. Water demand includes evapotranspiration and water needed to recharge soil moisture and keep lakes, reservoirs, and stream flow at normal levels. Utah’s last three decades have been marked by prolonged periods of water deficits. Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center 6 Climatological Trends in Utah Air Quality Smoke Days in Salt Lake and Tooele Counties 70 60 50 40 ays D 30 270 160 50 40 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 ays D 30 20 Particulate pollutants are created by wildfires and industrial activities. The increasing impact of state and regional wildfires on local Utah air10 quality is measured by the frequency of annual smoke days. Air pollution, such as PM2.5, has a negative impact on personal health0 by triggering or worsening rates of asthma; cancer; emphysema, bronchitis, and other chronic obstructive pulmonary40 diseases2000 (COPD);2002 and heart 2004disease.