SOMALIA PROGRAM SUPPORT SERVICES FINAL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF THE TRANSITION INITIATIVES FOR STABILIZATION PROJECT IDIQ AID-623-I-14-00009 TASK ORDER AID-623-T0-15-00014 June 4, 2016 This publication was produced at the request of the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by International Business & Technical Consultants, Inc. under IDIQ AID-623-I-14-00009, Task Order /AID- 623-TO-15-00014 1 SOMALIA PROGRAM SUPPORT SERVICES FINAL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF THE TRANSITION INITIATIVES FOR STABILIZATION PROJECT IDIQ AID-623-I-14-00009, TASK ORDER /AID-623-TO-15-00014 June 4, 2016 Authors: Roger Pipe, Jama Egal, Jane Meme, Lucas Malla, Zamzam Billow and Aden Abdi. International Business & Technical Consultants, Inc. (IBTCI) Additional input was provided by Mamuka Shatirishvili, Jeffrey Swedberg, and Gayla Cook of IBTCI, and consultant David Sip. In the US: IBTCI Home Office 8618 Westwood Center Drive Suite 400 Vienna, VA 22182 USA +1.703.749.0100 In Kenya : Park Office Suites, #9, Ground Floor Parklands, Nairobi +254.786.866.793 IDIQ AID-623-I-14-00009 DISCLAIMER The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. COVER PHOTO: Women celebrate during a Community Dialogue Event in Hodan, Mogadishu. Photo: Alinur Hassan, IOM. i CONTENTS CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................................................................. II TABLE OF TABLES .............................................................................................................................................................. III TABLE OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................................................ III ACRONYMS .............................................................................................................................................................................. IV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................................................................................................................................ V IN MEMORIAM ......................................................................................................................................................................... VI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................................ VII I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 II. EVALUATION PURPOSE............................................................................................................................................... 1 III. DESCRIPTION OF THE STABILIZATION PROJECT, INCLUDING GOAL AND TIS OBJECTIVES . 1 IV. KEY EVALUATION QUESTIONS ........................................................................................................................... 3 V. METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................................................ 4 EVALUATION LIMITATIONS ........................................................................................................................................... 5 VI. QUESTION 1 FINDINGS: ACHIEVEMENT OF IP OBJECTIVES ................................................................... 5 TIS OBJECTIVE 1: INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN ALL LEVELS OF GOVERNANCE ..................................... 6 CONCLUSIONS REGARDING OBJECTIVE 1 ......................................................................................................... 10 ACHIEVEMENT OF OBJECTIVE 2: SUPPORT COLLABORATION BETWEEN GOVERNMENT, THE PRIVATE SECTOR, AND CIVIL SOCIETY ................................................................................................................ 11 CONCLUSIONS REGARDING OBJECTIVE 2 ......................................................................................................... 15 ACHIEVEMENT OF OBJECTIVE 3: INCREASED DIALOGUE ON PEACE, RECOVERY, AND DEVELOPMENT IN SOMALIA ...................................................................................................................................... 15 CONCLUSIONS REGARDING OBJECTIVE 3 ......................................................................................................... 19 INDEPENDENT EFFECT ON THE ACHIEVEMENT OF TIS OBJECTIVES ..................................................... 19 VII. EVALUATION QUESTION 2: TIS CONTRIBUTION TO USAID GOAL & OBJECTIVES ............... 20 TIS CONTRIBUTION TO INCREASING STABILITY ............................................................................................ 20 WERE ANY TIS APPROACHES ESPECIALLY EFFECTIVE IN CONTRIBUTING TO STABILITY OR TO THE ACHIEVEMENT OF USAID OBJECTIVES? ....................................................................................................... 22 QUESTION 2 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................................... 23 VIII. EVALUATION QUESTION 3: INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF THE TIS PROCESS AND COMMUNITY USE OF TIS PHYSICAL STRUCTURES .............................................................................................. 23 INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF THE TIS PROCESSES .......................................................................................... 23 CONTINUED USE OF TIS PHYSICAL STRUCTURES .......................................................................................... 24 QUESTION 3 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................................... 26 IX. EVALUATION QUESTION 4: TIS SUCCESS AT ADDRESSING GENDER ISSUES ............................ 26 INCREASED INCLUSION OF WOMEN IN COMMUNITY-LEVEL DECISION-MAKING ....................... 26 ENABLING WOMEN TO ADVOCATE FOR THEMSELVES AND TAKE ACTION .................................. 27 ENSURING BOTH MEN AND WOMEN BENEFIT FROM THE ACTIVITY .................................................. 29 ii EVALUATION QUESTION 4 CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................... 29 X. EVALUATION QUESTION 5: EFFECTIVENESS OF COMMUNITY PLANNING SESSIONS .............. 29 XI. RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................................................................................... 31 Annex A: Statement of Objectives for TIS Final Performance Evaluation ........................................................ 1 Annex B: Map of Somalia Showing TIS Settlements Surveyed during the Final Evaluation ....................... 11 Annex C: Evaluation Design and Methodology ..................................................................................................... 12 Annex D: Evaluation Tools .......................................................................................................................................... 53 Annex E: Conflict of Interest Disclosures ............................................................................................................... 79 Annex F: Evaluation Team CVs .................................................................................................................................. 80 Annex G: Places Visited & List of Organizations and People Interviewed .................................................... 81 Annex H: Change in Perceptions Regarding Local Government ..................................................................... 93 Annex I: Level of Satisfaction with Basic Services ................................................................................................. 94 Annex J: Correlations between Indicators of Good Governance ................................................................... 95 Annex K: Detailed Stability Index .............................................................................................................................. 96 Annex L: Summary of Findings from Focus Groups Regarding TIS Physical Structure ............................. 97 Annex M: Findings related to Evaluation Question 5 from Focus Group Discussions and Key Informant Interviews and from the Household Survey ..................................................................................... 100 Annex N: Summary of Findings from Focus Groups Evaluation Question 4.............................................. 107 TABLE OF TABLES Table 1: Comparison of Average Stability Indexes by Geographic Area ................................................................. 19 Table 2: Results for Comparison of Means (TIS alone and TIS plus other DPs)................................................... 19 Table 3: Knowledge of CPS and Perception of CPS Effectiveness ............................................................................. 31 TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Percentage Change in Citizen Perceptions of Local Government from 2014-2016 viii Figure 2: Stability Index in TIS Settlements: 2014 and 2016 ix Figure 3: TIS Results Framework 2 Figure 4: Number of Grants and Disbursements by IP 2 Figure 5: