Closed Loop Control of Soft Switched Forward Converter Using Intelligent Controller 77 IJCTA, 9(35), 2016, pp. 77-92 © International Science Press A Review of the 1985 Andreassen Model to Predict the Fatality Rate of Traffi c Accident Victims in Indonesia Supratman Agus* Abstract : In Indonesia, the 1985 Andreassen equation has been used in road safety studies to predict the number of actual fatality in traffi c accidents, by examining the correlation between the number of vehicle and the number of population variables. The relationship between the formula/equation of the two variables needs to be analyzed in the light of the characteristic of Indonesia which is a vast area with huge amount of vehicles and great number of population. With the sample area of West Java Province, and using the test criteria of Mean Absolute Percent Errors, Mean Absolute Errors, and Root Mean Square Errors, the study fi nds that (1) the Andreassen equation formula is not suitable for predicting the number of actual fatality in Indonesia because the variable of population (P) does not have signifi cant effect on the number of fatality; and (2) by formulating the data input from every area of the study, an updated equation is developed; i.e. F = e –1,335 V0,509. This single-variable equation can predict the number of actual fatality of 176.8% greater than the data reported by the Indonesian National Police. It is recommended that the researchers of road safety in Indonesia implement the primary data of fatality as stated in Indonesian Law No 22/2009 on Traffi c and Road Transportation, as well as the recommendation of International Road Traffi c and Accident Database of 1998 and 2004. In Indonesia, a model needs to be developed to predict the updated fatality, based on the regional characteristics and road traffi c infrastructures. Keywords : Andreassen’s prediction model analysis, variable of prediction model, Indonesia. 1. INTRODUCTION In Indonesia, to predict the number of fatality (death victims) of traffi c accident, the Andreassen’s prediction model (1985) has been used for a long time. The results of studies using Andreassen’s prediction model have been implemented in various road safety researches, including in the development of strategic policies and traffi c safety programs. On national level, the results of such studies are used in the formulation of policies concerning the obligation to wear seatbelts for drivers, the obligation to wear helmet for motorcycle riders, and the age limit for drivers and riders of vehicles, as well as other rules and regulations concerning traffi c safety in Indonesia. Agus S (2013) states that the results of studies on fatality using Andreassen’s prediction model (1985) are not feasible for use in Indonesia since they are not compatible with Indonesia’s regional characteristics and road transportation infrastructures. The accuracy of primary data used in road safety studies and the resulting fi ndings do not meet researchers’ expectations to develop better system of road safety for the future. Therefore, Agus S (2014) argues that the results of studies on primary data using Andreassen’s two-variables prediction model (1985) are questionable, and do not provide expected result to develop better road safety management system and for projustia purposes in Indonesia. * Civil Engineering Department, Indonesia University of Education, Indonesia, Email: [email protected]. 78 Supratman Agus 2. OVERVIEW OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENT FATALITY IN INDONESIA In Indonesia, the fatality data reported by the National Police of Indonesia is an assumption based on occurrences in the sites of the traffi c accident (DPRI, 2004). The number of actual fatality is unknown because the police report does not include the fatality data from hospitals as regulated by Indonesian Traffi c Law No 22/2009 on Road Traffi c and Transportation (Agus S, 2014). World Health Organization (WHO, 2013) in Modifi ed from the Global Safety Status Report notes that the estimated number of fatality in Indonesia is twice the number reported by Indonesian National Police in 2007. Asian Development Bank (ADB, 2005) also reports that the number of actual fatality in Indonesia is almost four times the number recorded in Indonesian National Police data. Similar condition is also reported by WHO (2009), which states that Indonesia ranks the third among the ASEAN countries in terms of traffi c accident fatality. Currently, the researchers of road safety in Indonesia implement the equation model developed by Smeed (1949) and Andrassen (1985) to predict the number of actual fatality; i.e. using the formula of correlation between the number of vehicles (V) and the number of population (P). In Indonesia, there is no fatality prediction model that suits the regional characteristics and transportation infrastructure of Indonesia; which is a vast area with the greatest number of population and vehicles and the longest road infrastructure in ASEAN. 2.1. The Role of Fatality Data in Road Safety Study Data on traffi c accident is one of the important aspects recommended by ADB (1999) to improve traffi c safety management system. The accuracy of traffi c accident and factual traffi c fatality data is necessary in road safety study since the fi ndings of the study will be used in the formulation of strategic policies and road safety programs. ADB (2004) recommends that the role of fatality data is one of the 14 aspects to be used for intervention to reduce the number of fatality and the risk of road accident. The 14 aspects recommended by ADB are: • Road safety coordination and management • Road (traffi c) accident data system • Road accident funding and role of insurance industry • Road safety planning and design • Improvement of dangerous sites • Road safety education for children • Drivers’ and riders’ training and testing • Road safety campaign and socialization • Driving/riding safety standard • Traffi c rules and regulations • Traffi c police and law enforcement • First-aid for victims of road (traffi c) accident • Road safety study • Road accident cost The above has been taken from (ADB, 2004). Traffi c accident data is preliminary information needed to describe the actual condition in the fi eld; in terms of the road, the vehicles, the environment, or the drivers/riders. In road safety study, the data plays signifi cant role as the primary data for various purposes; it is needed by researchers, police, road planners, educators, statistic experts, communication experts, lawyers, and other related organization/institution. Therefore, an accurate data is required, as close as possible to the actual condition in the fi eld, to allow the result of the study to be useful as expected by the researchers. Should the data input be inaccurate, both quantitatively and qualitatively, the result of the study will not be feasible for use and will not be able to improve safety management system to A Review of the 1985 Andreassen Model to Predict the Fatality Rate of Traffi c Accident Victims in Indonesia 79 reduce the risk of traffi c fatality. Thus, the availability of highly accurate fatality data will meet the great expectation to improve and develop a good road safety management system, to determine excellent road safety program, and to predict future traffi c fatality in Indonesia. 2.2. Fatality Data Recording System in Indonesia The resulting effects of road (traffi c) accident are slight injury, serious injury, and fatality. Based on the defi nition from International Road Traffi c and Accident Database (IRTAD, 1998, 2004), fatality is an occurance of a person injured dies within 30 days of the crash (and as a result of the crash). The number of fatality includes those who died at the site of road accident, who died on the way to hospital/healthcare facilities, and who died during treatment in hospital/healthcare facilities. In developed countries that prioritize road safety, the data on traffi c accidents and victims is considered an important database priority. With unquestionable accuracy of traffi c accident data, the study on certain sites or certain parts of a road represents the description of factual data. Therefore, the result of such study can and will be used as the basis to develop and implement intervention efforts concerning various aspects of road (traffi c) safety. In Indonesia, the Traffi c Law No 22/2009 stipulates that road (traffi c) accident data is managed by the National Police as part of its forensic data. The data should be completed with reports from hospitals and should be used by road and traffi c regulation bodies. The National Police of Indonesia is given authority and responsibility to record and report the data of road/traffi c accident victims (both injuries and fatality), and to manage road accident information system for public. The same authority is also given to the Indonesian Ministry of Health, delegated to hospitals, to record the data of fatality after 30 days of treatment (at most) following a traffi c accident. The data of traffi c accident includes data on: (1) accident number, (2) fatality, (3) serious injury, and (4) slight injury. With such authority and responsibility, the National Police of Indonesia may conduct investigation of every traffi c accident at the site of the accident based on the existing Standard Operational Procedure (SOP) of Investigation; i.e. (1) Secure the Scene quickly and accurately, and check the identity of the driver and personnel of the vehicle, (2) create a sketch of the traffi c accident site (the scene), (3) Handling and providing fi rst aid for the victims of traffi c accident properly, and quickly transporting them to the nearest hospital for further medical treatment, (4) Developing an investigation report that contains the data on accident number, visum etrepertum requests, and coordination with Insurance companies to facilitate faster claim for the victims (KNRI, 2010).