Report No. 148128-GM Republic of The Gambia Public Disclosure Authorized Overcoming a No-Growth Legacy Systematic Country Diagnostic Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized May 2020 Public Disclosure Authorized © 2020 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank encourages the dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. 2020. Systematic Country Diagnostics for the Republic of The Gambia: Overcoming a No-Growth Legacy. Washington, DC: World Bank.” All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, the World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. ii Contents Abbreviations and Acronyms .................................................................................................................................... ix Acknowledgments ..................................................................................................................................................... xi Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................. xii Country Context ................................................................................................................................................... xii Challenges to Inclusive and Sustainable Growth ................................................................................................ xiii Pathways for Inclusive and Sustainable Growth ................................................................................................. xvi 1. Introduction: Toward a Better Future ............................................................................................................. 19 2. Country Features ............................................................................................................................................. 22 A. Severe Fragility and Political Instability ....................................................................................................... 22 B. Small Economy and Regional Integration .................................................................................................... 26 C. Rapid Population Growth and Urbanization ............................................................................................... 29 D. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change ........................................................................................... 31 3. Growth and Fiscal Stability: Trends and Characteristics ................................................................................. 34 A. Growth Trends ............................................................................................................................................. 34 B. Growth Characteristics ................................................................................................................................ 35 C. Fiscal Stability .............................................................................................................................................. 39 4. Poverty and Inequality: Trends, and Characteristics ....................................................................................... 50 A. Poverty and Inequality Characteristics ........................................................................................................ 52 B. Trends in Poverty and Inequality ................................................................................................................. 57 5. Social Inclusion and Human Capital Formation ............................................................................................... 62 A. Labor Markets.............................................................................................................................................. 62 B. Health .......................................................................................................................................................... 65 C. Education ..................................................................................................................................................... 69 D. Social Protection .......................................................................................................................................... 73 E. Social Sustainability ..................................................................................................................................... 75 6. Structural Transformation and Labor Productivity ......................................................................................... 77 A. Trends in Labor Productivity ........................................................................................................................ 77 B. Growth by Sectors ....................................................................................................................................... 79 7. Constraints and Opportunities in the Private Sector ...................................................................................... 89 A. Business Environment ................................................................................................................................. 90 B. Electricity Services ....................................................................................................................................... 92 C. The Digital Economy .................................................................................................................................... 94 D. Access to Finance ........................................................................................................................................ 96 iii E. Connectivity ................................................................................................................................................. 98 8. Governance and Public Service Delivery ....................................................................................................... 100 A. Public Sector Administration ..................................................................................................................... 100 B. Policy Coordination and Results Monitoring ............................................................................................. 102 C. Public Financial Management, Accountability, and Transparency ............................................................ 102 D. Public Procurement ................................................................................................................................... 103 E. Oversight and Corporate Governance of SOEs and Public Agencies......................................................... 104 9. Priority Agenda for Inclusive and Sustainable Growth .................................................................................. 106 A. Prioritization Framework ........................................................................................................................... 107 B. Reform Agenda for The Gambia ................................................................................................................ 107 C. Impact, Sequencing, Complementarities, and Feasibility ......................................................................... 119 References ............................................................................................................................................................. 122 Appendix A: Benchmarking for The Gambia ......................................................................................................... 132 A. Restore Macrofiscal Stability ..................................................................................................................... 133 B. Strengthen Public Service Delivery ............................................................................................................ 136 C. Scale Up Climate-Smart Agriculture .......................................................................................................... 138 D. Diversify the Economy ............................................................................................................................... 139 E. Increase Human Capital ............................................................................................................................. 142 Appendix B: World Bank Country Team Survey ...................................................................................................