ADDRESSING RURAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH FUNCTIONAL REGIONS Districts of Dr Ruth Segomotsi Mompati, Ngaka Modiri Molema and John Taolo Gaetsewe October 2013 Prepared For: Department of Rural Development and Land Reform Rural Infrastructure Development Clinton Heimann [email protected] Prepared By: CSIR, Built Environment Elsona van Huyssteen Johan Maritz Table of Contents 1. Purpose ................................................................................................................................................................................................... B1 2. Orientation and key facts ......................................................................................................................................................................... B3 3. Which are the areas in the priority rural districts that are under immense developmental pressure due to large numbers of population or a growing population? ..................................................................................................................................................... B9 3.1 Population size and density ................................................................................................................................................................................... B10 3.2 Population – Growing or declining ......................................................................................................................................................................... B12 3.3 Migration impacts on the area ............................................................................................................................................................................... B20 3.4 Surrounding area and/or settlement under pressure of settlement growth or change .......................................................................................... B20 4. Where are the places in the priority rural districts that are under immense pressure due to high levels of service backlogs and social vulnerability (including low income, high dependency and low employment ratios)? .................................................................... B23 4.1 Household Income and unemployment ................................................................................................................................................................. B24 4.2 Social Vulnerability ................................................................................................................................................................................................ B26 4.3 Number of service backlogs .................................................................................................................................................................................. B29 5. Where are the economic development strengths, sectors and areas in the priority rural districts? ......................................................... B39 5.1 High levels of economic activity or growth ............................................................................................................................................................ B40 5.2 Economic analysis by main economic sectors – employment perspective ........................................................................................................... B43 5.3 Areas with good market accessibility and high ‘demand’ potential ....................................................................................................................... B59 6. Where are the prime rural zones/areas that should be prioritised for consolidation and the protection of prime rural production areas/zones? ......................................................................................................................................................................................... B62 6.1 Agricultural production and agro-processing potential .......................................................................................................................................... B64 6.2 Other resource areas ............................................................................................................................................................................................. B67 7. Within high density rural areas or outstretched regions, which anchor points, can play a key role as government service nodes and market concentration areas for government and economic services, both at local level and regional level? ................................... B73 7.1 Identification of Regional Centres of Excellence ................................................................................................................................................... B73 Bi 7.2 Identification of Potential Rural Nodes .................................................................................................................................................................. B83 8. Summary of Key Interventions ............................................................................................................................................................... B87 List of Tables Table 2.1: Population and economic score card ............................................................................................................................................. B8 Table 4.1: District and local municipal population and socio-economic trends and service level backlogs .................................................... B30 Table 4.2: Settlement/towns specific population and socio-economic trends and service level backlogs ...................................................... B34 Table 5.1: Comparative economic activity per local municipality – employment focus .................................................................................. B47 Table 7.1: CLUSTER 1: Summary of population in Regional Service Centres and Towns ........................................................................... B78 Table 8.1: Summary of investment priorities ................................................................................................................................................. B87 Table 8.2: Basic Services – Summary of investment priorities ...................................................................................................................... B88 Table 8.3: Rural Production Zones – Summary of investment priorities ........................................................................................................ B90 Table 8.4: Key Service Nodes – Summary of investment priorities ............................................................................................................... B93 Table 8.5: Rural regional centres of excellence - Summary of investment priorities ..................................................................................... B95 List of Figures Figure 1.1: Priority districts – Group 1 ............................................................................................................................................................. B1 Figure 2.1: Orientation map showing key towns and natural area – Group 1 ................................................................................................... B5 Figure 2.2: SA Functional settlement areas and service regions ..................................................................................................................... B6 Figure 3.1: Regional overview of population and low income earning households distribution ....................................................................... B11 Figure 3.2: Population growth depicted in functional settlement areas and service regions 1996-2011 ......................................................... B13 Figure 3.3: MODIS settlement change detection 2001-2005.......................................................................................................................... B14 Figure 3.4: MODIS settlement change detection 2006-2012.......................................................................................................................... B15 Figure 3.5: Settlement related MODIS change detection 2001-2012 ............................................................................................................. B16 Figure 3.6: Settlement related change (MODIS change detection 2001-2012) in relation to the traditional authority areas ............................ B17 Bii Figure 3.7: Settlement related population change in relation to the traditional authority areas (Population growth and decline mapped per mesozone (50km2) ................................................................................................................................................... B18 Figure 3.8: Migration trends focusing on 23 districts ...................................................................................................................................... B21 Figure 3.9: Areas under pressure due to a combination of high densities, growth and in-migration of population .......................................... B22 Figure 4.1: Household Income Group ............................................................................................................................................................ B24 Figure 4.2: Employment status .....................................................................................................................................................................