Issue 62 September 2013 Contents INTRODUCTION The Unemployment Bulletin provides a monthly update on unemployment data for Part 1: Summary Gloucestershire, the South West region and the United Kingdom. It is produced by A summary of the Strategic Needs Analysis Team in the County Council’s Strategy and Challenge unemployment data at district, County, regional function. The data is sourced from the Office for National Statistics via Nomis and national level (www.nomis.co.uk). 1 Part 2: County The claimant count measures the number of people claiming unemployment- Unemployment figures for related benefit (currently Job Seeker’s allowance). The claimant rate is the number the County compared to the of claimants as a proportion of the working age population. South West and the rest of the UK 3 PART 1: SUMMARY Part 3: Districts The claimant rate in Gloucestershire was 2.3% in September 2013. This was a A comparative break down decrease of 0.1% on the August 2013 figure. The UK and South West rate also of unemployment figures by district decreased to 3.2% and 2.1% respectively. Gloucestershire’s rate is 0.2% above the 4 South West average of 2.1%, and 0.9% lower than the UK average of 3.2%. Part 4: Wards Further breakdown of The claimant count in Gloucestershire in September 2013 decreased by 370 unemployment figures by people. The amount of people claiming in September 2013 was 4.1% lower than ward: the number in August 2013. This compares to a 4.3% decrease in the South West and a 4.7% decrease for the UK. Cheltenham 6 Cotswolds 8 The year on year claimant count in Gloucestershire has decreased since last Forest of Dean 10 month. The count was 15.5% lower in September 2013 than at the same point in the previous year as shown in the graph below. Gloucester 12 Stroud 14 Tewkesbury 16 Gloucestershire claimants - Month on Month and Year on Year change: Part 5: Map September 2012 to September 2013 Distribution of claimant rate across Gloucestershire 10.0% 18 5.0% Part 6: Young People Data about Young People Not in Education, 0.0% Employment or Training (NEET) 20 -5.0% % change% -10.0% -15.0% Produced by: -20.0% Strategic Needs Analysis Team Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Strategy and Challenge % change on previous month % change on previous year Gloucestershire County Council Source: ONS Crown Copyright Reserved October 2013 Unemployment Bulletin Page 2 DISTRICTS AT A GLANCE At a glance unemployment information grouped by district. Includes: Claim count: Total number of people claiming Job Seekers Allowance in September 2013 Compared to last month: How much larger/smaller September’s claimant count is compared to August, expressed as a % Claimant rate: The % of working population claiming Job Seekers Allowance in September 2013 Highest claiming ward: The ward with the highest claim count in that district and the rate CHELTENHAM BOROUGH GLOUCESTER CITY Claim count: 1,894 Claim count: 2,785 Compared to last month: -3.4% Compared to last month: -5.9% Claimant rate: 2.5% Claimant rate: 3.5% Highest claiming ward Oakley (5.7%) Highest claiming ward Barton and Tredworth (8.2%) COTSWOLD DISTRICT STROUD DISTRICT Claim count: 602 Claim count: 1,188 Compared to last month: -3.7% Compared to last month: -1.2% Claimant rate: 1.2% Claimant rate: 1.7% Highest claiming ward Cirencester Highest claiming ward Slade Watermoor (3.5%) (4.3%) FOREST OF DEAN TEWKESBURY BOROUGH Claim count: 1,126 Claim count: 961 Compared to last month: -2.9% Compared to last month: -5.5% Claimant rate: 1.9% Claimant rate: 2.2% Highest claiming ward Tewkesbury Prior’s Highest claiming ward Cinderford East (4.9%) Park (4.9%) YOUNG PEOPLE NOT IN EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT OR TRAINING (NEET) At the end of September 2013 there were 535 young people aged 16-18 not in education, em- ployment or training in Gloucestershire and this figure translates into an adjusted (*) 16-18 NEET population of 4.6%. Unemployment Bulletin Page 3 PART 2: UK, SW AND GLOUCESTERSHIRE INDICATORS The unemployment situation in Gloucestershire compared to the South West and the UK. Claimant Rate Figure 1: Claimant Rate for Gloucestershire, the South West and UK over the past year 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Rate (%) Rate United Kingdom 1.5 South West 1.0 Gloucestershire 0.5 0.0 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Figure 1 shows the claimant rate for Gloucestershire at 2.3% in September 2013. With the exception of January and March 2013, the rate has been slightly higher than the South West average since March 2012. It has been persistently lower by approximately 0.9% against the UK average. The September 2013 rate represented a 0.1% decrease on August 2013. Claimant Count Table 1: Analysis of UK, South West and Gloucestershire Claimant Counts Area Claimant Count % change on Average % Consecutive in September August 2013 change over the months 2013 last six months decreasing UK 1,324,725 -4.7% -2.5% 6 South West 69,153 -4.3% -3.2% 6 Gloucestershire 8,556 -4.1% -2.6% 6 Table 1 shows that in September 2013, the number of claimants in Gloucestershire was 4.1% lower than the number in August 2013. The average change in claimants in Gloucestershire for the six months to September 2013 was –2.6%. Unemployment Bulletin Page 4 PART 3: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT ANALYSIS Claimant Rate and Claimant Count Figure 2: Claimant Rate (%) across Gloucestershire - September 2013 4.0 3.5 3.0 Gloucestershire 2.3% 2.5 % 2.0 1.5 1.0 3.5 0.5 2.5 1.2 2.2 1.7 1.9 0.0 Figure 2 shows the claimant rate for September 2013 in Gloucestershire. Between August 2013 and September 2013 the rate in Cotswold and Stroud remained the same, the rate in the other districts decreased. Figure 3: Total claimants over the past year across Gloucestershire Districts 12,000 11,000 10,000 Cotswold 9,000 Tewkesbury 8,000 Stroud 7,000 6,000 Forest of Dean Number Number 5,000 Cheltenham 4,000 3,000 2,000 Gloucester 1,000 0 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 April 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Figure 3 shows the overall claimant count by district over the past year. Since September 2012 the number of claimants has decreased, with the exception of October, January and February when they increased. Unemployment Bulletin Page 5 Table 2: Analysis of Gloucestershire and District Claimant Counts Total Sep 13 Sep 13 Aug 13 Aug 13 Monthly % monthly Monthly change Number Rate Number Rate change change of rate Gloucestershire 8,556 2.3 8,926 2.4 -370 -4.1% -0.1 Cheltenham 1,894 2.5 1,961 2.6 -67 -3.4% -0.1 Cotswold 602 1.2 625 1.2 -23 -3.7% 0.0 Forest of Dean 1,126 2.2 1,160 2.3 -34 -2.9% -0.1 Gloucester 2,785 3.5 2,961 3.7 -176 -5.9% -0.2 Stroud 1,188 1.7 1,202 1.7 -14 -1.2% 0.0 Tewkesbury 961 1.9 1,017 2.0 -56 -5.5% -0.1 Table 2 shows the change in the claimant count in September 2013 compared to August 2013. All districts saw a decrease in the number of claimants. Table 3: Analysis of Male Gloucestershire and District Claimant Counts Male Sep 13 Sep 13 Aug 13 Aug 13 Monthly % monthly Monthly change Number Rate Number Rate change change of rate Gloucestershire 5,514 2.9 5,710 3.0 -196 -3.4% -0.1 Cheltenham 1,245 3.3 1,285 3.4 -40 -3.1% -0.1 Cotswold 382 1.6 398 1.6 -16 -4.0% 0.0 Forest of Dean 743 2.9 759 3.0 -16 -2.1% -0.1 Gloucester 1,793 4.5 1,888 4.7 -95 -5.0% -0.2 Stroud 746 2.1 748 2.1 -2 -0.3% 0.0 Tewkesbury 605 2.4 632 2.5 -27 -4.3% -0.1 Table 3 shows the change in the male claimant count in September 2013 compared to August 2013. All districts saw a decrease in the number of male claimants. Table 4: Analysis of Female Gloucestershire and District Claimant Counts Female Sep 13 Sep 13 Aug 13 Aug 13 Monthly % monthly Monthly change Number Rate Number Rate change change of rate Gloucestershire 3,042 1.6 3,216 1.7 -174 -5.4% -0.1 Cheltenham 649 1.7 676 1.8 -27 -4.0% -0.1 Cotswold 220 0.9 227 0.9 -7 -3.1% 0.0 Forest of Dean 383 1.5 401 1.6 -18 -4.5% -0.1 Gloucester 992 2.5 1,073 2.7 -81 -7.5% -0.2 Stroud 442 1.3 454 1.3 -12 -2.6% 0.0 Tewkesbury 356 1.4 385 1.5 -29 -7.5% -0.1 Table 4 shows the change in the female claimant count in September 2013 compared to August 2013. All districts saw a decrease in the number of female claimants. Unemployment Bulletin Page 6 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS This section covers the six districts and a comparison of their constituent wards.