Cheltenham Borough Council Cheltenham Detailed Modelling Study October 2019 CLIENT NAME ARIAL 12 WHITE BOLD ALL CAPS 1.5 LINE SPACING PROJECT NAME REQUIREMENT – EG TENDER, REQUEST FOR PROPOSAL BUSINESS UNIT / DIVISION – EG BUREAU VERITAS HS&E LTD DATE THIS PAGE IS LEFT BLANK INTENTIONALLY Document Control Sheet Identification Client Cheltenham Borough Council Document Title Detailed Modelling Study Bureau Veritas Ref No. 6481827/AQ/V3.0 Contact Details Company Name Bureau Veritas UK Limited Cheltenham Borough Council Contact Name Antony Wiatr Alex Mason Position Technical Director Environmental Health Officer 2nd Floor, Atlantic House Municipal Offices Atlas Business Park Promenade Address Simonsway Cheltenham Manchester GL50 9SA M22 5PR Telephone 0161 446 4747 07920 560600 e-mail [email protected] [email protected] Websites www.bureauveritas.co.uk https://www.cheltenham.gov.uk/ Configuration Reason for Issue/Summary of Version Date Author Status Changes 1.0 16/09/19 B Turner Issued to client for comment Draft 2.0 09/10/19 B Turner In line with comments received Final 3.0 31/10/19 T Campbell In line with comments received Final Name Job Title Signature Prepared By T Campbell Senior Consultant Approved By A Wiatr Technical Director Commercial In Confidence © Bureau Veritas UK Limited The copyright in this work is vested in Bureau Veritas UK Limited, and the information contained herein is confidential. 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Bureau Veritas UK Limited, Registered in England & Wales, Company Number: 01758622 Registered Office: Suite 308 Fort Dunlop, Fort Parkway, Birmingham B24 9FD THIS PAGE IS LEFT BLANK INTENTIONALLY Cheltenham Borough Council Local Air Quality Management – Detailed Modelling Study Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ iii 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Scope of Assessment ............................................................................................................. 1 2 Air Quality – Legislative Context ................................................................................................. 3 2.1 Air Quality Strategy ................................................................................................................. 3 2.2 Local Air Quality Management (LAQM) .................................................................................. 5 3 Review and Assessment of Air Quality Undertaken by the Council ........................................... 6 3.1 Local Air Quality Management ................................................................................................ 6 3.2 Review of Air Quality Monitoring ............................................................................................. 6 3.3 Defra Background Concentration Estimates ......................................................................... 12 4 Assessment Methodology ......................................................................................................... 13 4.1 Traffic Inputs.......................................................................................................................... 13 4.2 General Model Inputs ............................................................................................................ 15 4.3 Sensitive Receptors .............................................................................................................. 16 4.4 Model Outputs ....................................................................................................................... 18 4.5 Uncertainty ............................................................................................................................ 18 5 Results ...................................................................................................................................... 20 5.1 Modelled Concentrations ...................................................................................................... 20 5.2 Estimated Year of Compliance .............................................................................................. 25 5.3 Source Apportionment .......................................................................................................... 25 6 Conclusions and Recommendations ........................................................................................ 31 6.1 Predicted Concentrations ...................................................................................................... 31 6.2 Source Apportionment .......................................................................................................... 31 6.3 Future Recommendations ..................................................................................................... 32 Appendices ........................................................................................................................................... 34 Appendix 1 – ADMS Model Verification ................................................................................................ 35 Appendix 2 – Background Concentrations Used .................................................................................. 41 Appendix 3 – Traffic Inputs ................................................................................................................... 42 Appendix 4 – Receptor Locations and Corresponding Modelled Predictions ....................................... 44 List of Tables Table 2.1 – Examples of where the Air Quality Objectives should apply ............................................... 4 Table 2.2 – Relevant AQS Objectives for the Assessed Pollutants in England ..................................... 4 Table 3.1 – Automatic Monitor CM1 ....................................................................................................... 6 Table 3.2 – Automatic Monitor CM1: NO2 Annual Mean Concentrations ............................................... 6 Table 3.3 – Automatic Monitor CM1: Number of NO2 Hourly Means Exceedances ............................... 7 Table 3.4 – Cheltenham Borough Council LAQM Diffusion Tube Monitoring ........................................ 7 Table 3.5 – Cheltenham Borough Council LAQM Diffusion Tube Monitoring ........................................ 8 Table 4.1 – Number of Receptors Included at Various Heights............................................................ 16 Table 5.1 – Summary of 2018 Modelled Receptor Results NO2 .......................................................... 20 Table 5.2 – Projected Annual Mean NO2 Concentrations .................................................................... 25 Table 5.3 – Detailed Source Apportionment of NOx Concentrations Covering the Entirety of the Modelled Domain .................................................................................................................................. 29 Bureau Veritas AIR6481827 i Cheltenham Borough Council Local Air Quality Management – Detailed Modelling Study Table 5.4 – Detailed Source Apportionment of NOx Concentrations Covering Location A .................. 30 Table A1 – Local Monitoring Data Available for Model Verification ...................................................... 36 Table A2 – Comparison of Unverified Modelled and Monitored NO2 Concentrations .......................... 37 Table A3 – Data Required for Adjustment Factor Calculation .............................................................. 38 Table A4 – Adjustment Factor and Comparison of Verified Results against Monitoring Results ......... 40 Table A5 – Defra Background Pollutant Concentrations Covering the Modelled Domain ................... 41 Table A6 – Traffic Data used in the Detailed Assessment ................................................................... 42 Table A7 – Predicted Annual Mean Concentrations of NO2 at Discrete Receptor Locations: 2018 B . 44 List of Figures Figure 3.1 - Cheltenham Whole Borough AQMA Boundary ................................................................. 10 Figure 3.2 – Local Monitoring Locations ............................................................................................... 11 Figure 4.1 – City Wide Modelled Road Network ................................................................................... 14 Figure 4.2 – Wind rose for Pershore Meteorological Data 2018........................................................... 15 Figure 4.3 – Receptor Locations Considered in the Assessment ......................................................... 17 Figure 5.1 – Location of Discrete Receptors Predicted to be within 10% or Above the NO2 Annual Mean AQS Objective ............................................................................................................................. 22 Figure 5.2 – Annual Mean NO2 Concentration Isopleths: Cheltenham ................................................ 23 Figure 5.3 – Location A: Annual Mean NO2 Concentration Isopleths and Model Predictions at Discrete Receptor Locations ............................................................................................................................... 24