Federal Aviation Administration Semi-Annual Launch Report October 2010 Reviewing Launch Results from the 2nd and 3d Quarter 2010, and Forecasting Launches for the 4th Quarter 2010 and 1st Quarter 2011 Special Report: “ITAR-Free” Satellites and Their Impact on the U.S. Launch Industry HQ-111287.INDD Semi-Annual Launch Report: Second Half of 2010 1 Introduction The Semi-Annual Launch Report: Second Half of 2010 features launch results from April 2010 through September 2010 and forecasts the period of October 2010 through March 2011. This report contains information on worldwide commercial, civil, and military orbital and commercial suborbital space launch events. Projected launches have been identified from open sources, including industry contacts, company manifests, periodicals, and government sources. Projected launches are subject to change. This report highlights commercial launch activities, classifying commercial launches as one or both of the following: • Internationally competed launch events (i.e., launch opportunities considered available in principle to competitors in the international launch services market) • Any launches licensed by the Office of Commercial Space Transportation of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) under 49 United States Code Subtitle IX, Chapter 701 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch Act) The FAA follows a half-year schedule for publishing this report. The next Semi-Annual Launch Report will be published in April 2011. Contents Highlights: April - September 2010. 2 Vehicle Use. 4 Commercial Launch Events by Country . 5 Commercial vs. Non-Commercial Launch Event. 5 Orbital vs. Commercial Suborbital Launch Events. 6 Launch Successes vs. Failures . 6 Payload Use (Orbital Launches Only) . 7 Payload Mass Class (Orbital Launches Only) . 7 Commercial Launch Trends (Orbital Launches Only) . 8 Commercial Launch Trends . 8 Commercial Launch History . 9 Special Report: ITAR-Free Satellites . 9 Appendix A: April - September 2010 Launch Events . 11 Appendix B: October 2010 - March 2011 Projected Launch Events . .. .. 13 Cover photo courtesy of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Copyright © 2010. A SpaceX Falcon 9 lifts off from Cape Canaveral during its inaugural launch on June 4, 2010 carrying a demo flight Dragon capsule into low Earth orbit. Semi-Annual Launch Report: Second Half of 2010 2 Highlights: April - September 2010 Proton M Successfully Launched On April 24, 2010, an International Launch Services SES-1 (ILS) Proton M lifted off from Baikonur, Kazakhstan, placing SES-1 (formerly known as AMC- 4R), a telecommunications satellite operated by SES World Skies, into geostationary orbit (GEO). The satellite, built by Orbital Sciences Corporation, carries 24 C and 24 Ku-band transponders. Ariane 5 Successfully Launched On May 20, 2010, Ariane 5 successfully placed the Astra 3B and COMSAT Bw 2 Astra 3B satellite into GEO. Astra 3B is a direct broadcast telecommunications satellite operated by SES Astra. The satellite was built by EADS Astrium and carries 60 Ku and 4 Ka-band transponders. The launch of Astra 3B was a dual manifest alongside COMSAT Bw 2, a satellite operated by the German Defense Ministry. Proton M Successfully Launched On June 3, 2010, an ILS Proton M lifted off from BADR-5 Baikonur, placing BADR-5, a telecommunications satellite operated by Arabsat, into GEO. The satellite was designed and manufactured by EADS Astrium and carries 58 Ku and 4 Ka-band transponders. Successful Inaugural Launch of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) Corp.’s Falcon 9 Falcon 9 rocket was launched on June 4, 2010, carrying a demo flight Dragon capsule into low Earth orbit (LEO). Falcon 9 is a two-stage rocket fueled with liquid oxygen and kerosene. It lifted off from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Ariane 5 Successfully Launched On June 27, 2010, Ariane 5 successfully placed COMS COMS 1 and Arabsat 5A 1 into GEO. COMS 1 is a Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite operated by KARI (Korean Advanced Research Institute). The satellite was designed and built by EADS Astrium to accomplish a combined telecommunications and weather mission. The launch of COMS 1 was a dual manifest alongside Arabsat 5A, a telecommunications satellite operated by Arabsat. Semi-Annual Launch Report: Second Half of 2010 3 Release of the U.S. National Space On June 28, 2010, the White House released the U.S. Policy National Space Policy, laying out the Administration’s vision for continued space exploration. The new policy emphasizes expanding international cooperation in space, extends U.S. participation in the International Space Station through 2020, and calls to “pursue potential opportunities for transferring routine, operational space functions to the commercial space sector where beneficial and cost- effective.” Proton M Successfully Launched On July 7, 2010, ILS launched the EchoStar 15 into EchoStar XV GEO aboard a Proton M rocket launched from Baikonur. The telecommunications satellite was built by Space Systems/Loral and is operated by EchoStar to serve Dish Network direct broadcast customers in the United States. Ariane 5 Successfully Launched On August 4, 2010, Ariane 5 successfully launched Rascom 1R and Nilesat 201 Rascom 1R. Rascom 1R is a GEO satellite operated by an African multinational telecommunications organization, RascomStar-QAF. The satellite was designed and built by Thales Alenia Space. The launch of Rascom 1R was a dual manifest alongside Nilesat 201, a telecommunications satellite providing direct broadcast services to Egypt and the Middle East. Failure of GSLV Mark 2 Launching On April 14, 2010, the Indian GSLV Mark 2 launch vehicle GSAT 4 was scheduled to launch GSAT 4, an Indian hybrid tele- communications and navigation GEO satellite. Follow- ing normal operation of the first and second stages, the cryogenic upper stage failed to perform normally after separation and ignition. It performed a ballistic re-entry with GSAT 4 still attached and fell into the Indian Ocean. The results of a subsequent investigation suggested that the failure could have been caused by the liquid hydrogen turbo-pump, which was shut down due to starvation of liquid hydrogen fuel. Failure of KSLV 1 Launching ST- On June 8, 2010, the Korean KSLV 1 failed to launch a SAT 2B Korean low Earth orbit (LEO) atmospheric research satellite, STSAT 2B. The loss of the launch vehicle and the satellite is believed to have been caused by an explosion of the rocket first stage. Reportedly, the debris from the explosion were recovered by the South Korean Navy. Semi-Annual Launch Report: Second Half of 2010 4 Vehicle Use (April 2010 - September 2010; October 2010 - March 2011) Figure 1: Total Launch Vehicle Use: Figure 2: Total Projected Launch Vehicle Use: Last Six Months Next Six Months ( April 2010 - September 2010) (October 2010 - March 2011) USA (20%) USA (28%) Shuttle 2 Taurus XL 1 Minotaur IV 1 Shuttle 2 Falcon 9 1 Minotaur 4 Delta IV 1 Falcon 9 1 Atlas V 3 Delta IV 3 China (17%) Delta II 1 Long March 7 Atlas V 3 Europe (7%) Ariane 5 3 China (15%) Long March 8 India (5%) PSLV 1 Europe (9%) GSLV 1 Ariane 5 5 Israel (2%) India (4%) Shavit 1 GSLV 1 Japan (5%) PSLV 1 H-IIA 2 Japan (2%) Russia (41%) H-IIB 1 Molniya 1 Kosmos 1 Multinational (4%) Zenit 3SLB 2 Dnepr 3 Rockot 2 Russia (39%) Dnepr Soyuz 6 3 Proton 4 Soyuz 2 6 Soyuz 5 South Korea (2%) KSLV 1 1 Proton 7 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 Total = 41 Total = 54 Figure 1 shows the total number of orbital and commercial suborbital launches of each launch vehicle and the resulting market share that occurred from April 2010 through September 2010. Figure 2 projects this information for the period from October 2010 through March 2011. The launches are grouped by the country in which the primary vehicle manufacturer is based. Exceptions to this grouping are launches performed by Sea Launch, which are designated as multinational. Note: Percentages for these and subsequent figures may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding of individual values. Semi-Annual Launch Report: Second Half of 2010 5 Commercial Launch Events by Country (April 2010 - September 2010; October 2010 - March 2011) Figure 3: Commercial Launch Figure 4: Projected Commercial Launch Events by Country: Events by Country: Last Six Months Next Six Months (April 2010 - September 2010) (October 2010 - March 2011) USA Multi 10% (1) 5% (1) USA Europe 11% (2) 30% (3) Russia Europe 53% (10) 21% (4) Russia 60% (6) Total = 10 Total = 17 Figure 3 shows all commercial orbital and suborbital launch events that occurred from April 2010 through September 2010. Figure 4 projects this information for the period from October 2010 through March 2011. Commercial vs. Non-Commercial Launch Events (April 2010 - September 2010; October 2010 - March 2011) Figure 5: Commercial vs. Non-Commercial Figure 6: Projected Commercial vs. Launch Events: Non-Commercial Launch Events: Last Six Months Next Six Months (April 2010 - September 2010) (October 2010 - March 2011) Commercial 24% (10) Commercial 31% (17) Non- Non- Commercial 76% (31) Commercial 69% (37) Total = 41 Total = 54 Figure 5 shows commercial vs. non-commercial orbital and suborbital launch events that occurred from April 2010 through September 2010. Figure 6 projects this information for the period from October 2010 through March 2011. Semi-Annual Launch Report: Second Half of 2010 6 Orbital vs. Commercial Suborbital Launch Events (April 2010 - September 2010; October 2010 - March 2011) Figure 7: Orbital vs. Suborbital Figure 8: Projected Orbital vs. Suborbital Launch Events: Launch Events: Last Six Months Next Six Months (April 2010 - September 2010) (October 2010 - March 2011) Suborbital Suborbital Commercial Commercial 0% (0) 0% (0) Orbital Orbital 100% (41) 100% (55) Total = 41 Total = 54 Figure 7 shows orbital vs. FAA-licensed commercial suborbital launch events (or their international equivalents) that occurred from April 2010 through September 2010. Figure 8 projects this information for the period from October 2010 through March 2011.