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Contents The Economist March 7th 2015 5 9 The world this week Asia 39 Afghanistan, Pakistan Leaders and the Taliban Hope springs 13 Atomic weapons The new nuclear age 40 Australian politics The Abbott effect 14 Global banks Cocking up 41 Politics in Malaysia Gathering steam 15 Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Taliban 41 India’s budget Seize the day But where’s the main act? Russia The assassination of 15 Health care in America 42 Japan and the past Boris Nemtsov leaves liberal Don’t kill Obamacare Undigested history Russians in fear of a new wave 16 Gender and education of violent repression, page 51. On the cover Nature plus nurture China Our obituary, page 94 A quarter of a century after 43 Economic growth the end of the cold war, the Letters The new normal world faces a growing threat 18 On deflation, 44 Hong Kong of nuclear conflict: leader, German-Americans, The power of fish page 13 and briefing, pages London, money, hipsters 44 Pollution 23-26. The likely outline of an Reinforcing the message Iranian nuclear deal, page 24. Why Binyamin Netanyahu’s Briefing 45 Banyan Xi Jinping’s ideology speech to Congress will not 23 Nuclear weapons stop Iran going nuclear, The unkicked addiction page 30 24 Negotiating with Iran Middle East and Africa Deal or no deal? 46 Iran’s economy Fading hope The Economist online Obamacare As the Supreme United States 47 Nigeria and its Court considers whether to gut Daily analysis and opinion to neighbours 27 Health policy (1) Obamacare, evidence is supplement the print edition, plus Big fish in a small pond mounting that the law is audio and video, and a daily chart Will Obamacare curb costs? Economist.com 47 Boko Haram working: leader, page 15. The 28 Health policy (2) On the back foot slowest health inflation in five E-mail: newsletters and Obamacare in court, again 48 Islamic State decades, page 27. A wasteful mobile edition 30 Israel and America Destroying history and inefficient industry is Economist.com/email Bibi in DC being disrupted, page 63 Print edition: available online by 30 Unions in Wisconsin 7pm London time each Thursday Labour pains Technology Quarterly Economist.com/print 32 Hillary Clinton’s e-mails After page 48 Audio edition: available online Nothing to hide? to download each Friday Economist.com/audioedition 33 Republican presidential Europe hopefuls 51 Russia after Nemtsov Bobby Jindal’s pitch Uncontrolled violence 34 Lexington 52 Estonia’s election Of dogcatchers and On the border democracy 53 Turkey’s Kurds Volume 414 Number 8928 Put the weapon down The Americas Published since September 1843 53 Kurdish football Afghanistan Improved to take part in "a severe contest between 35 Mexican education Scoring the equaliser intelligence, which presses forward, and relations with Pakistan offer an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing Flunking the test 54 Macedonia’s scandal the possibility of making peace our progress." 36 Mexican drug cartels Getting it on tape with the Taliban. Other Editorial offices in London and also: Captured capos 54 Media in Italy countries should help: leader, Atlanta, Beijing, Berlin, Brussels, Cairo, Chicago, Hong Kong, Johannesburg, Lima, 36 Intrigue in Argentina Sliced RAI page 15. How the Afghan Los Angeles, Mexico City, Moscow, New Delhi, The end of the affair? 55 Charlemagne Taliban may be brought to the New York, Paris, San Francisco, São Paulo, negotiating table, page 39 Singapore, Tokyo, Washington DC 38 Bello Europe’s energy union A long game in Havana 1 Contents continues overleaf 6 Contents The Economist March 7th 2015 Britain 77 Inflation in Japan The signal and the noise 58 The Liberal Democrats A cold shower 78 Training professional investors 59 Amnesty International Off-track betting A reputation at risk 80 Free exchange 60 Bagehot Secular stagnation The hunter and the hapless Science and technology International 82 Evolution and disease 61 Gender, education and Decline of the global bank A Faustian bargain Technology Quarterly work Badly managed and under- How Silicon Valley-funded The weaker sex 83 Computer security performing, the giants of Unintended consequences startups are moving into the global finance are in trouble. 84 3D printing sustainable-food business, Don’t take their survival for Business Entering the jet age how to back up a country’s granted: leader, page 14. Why 63 Health care in America data, low-gravity space they are floundering, page 71. Shock treatment rovers, hacking your brain and Citigroup’s woes, page 75 Books and arts much more, after page 48 64 Berkshire Hathaway Corresponderous 85 The Ottoman Empire Heading towards disaster 65 Silicon Valley HQs Subscription service 86 American power Googledome, or temple For our latest subscription offers, visit of doom? The end is not nigh Economist.com/offers 86 Homicide in Los Angeles For subscription service, please contact by 66 Altice telephone, fax, web or mail at the details Borrow, buy, cut Murder, she wrote provided below: 87 Disraeli’s marriage Telephone: 1 800 456 6086 (from outside 66 The glass-ceiling index the US and Canada, 1 636 449 5702) Slow progress A mismatch made in Facsimile: 1 866 856 8075 (from outside heaven the US and Canada, 1 636 449 5703) 66 The art market Web: Economistsubs.com Brush with the law 88 McQueen and Galliano E-mail: [email protected] Two butterflies, one wheel Post: The Economist Subscription 69 E-commerce in Asia Services, P.O. Box 46978, St. Louis, MO 63146-6978, USA Home-field advantage 88 Paul Durand-Ruel Gender gaps Girls now do Making the Impressionists Subscription for 1 year (51 issues) better than boys in school and 70 Schumpeter United States US$160 university. But both sexes can Management by targets Canada CN$165 still improve: leader, page 16. 92 Economic and financial Latin America US$338 Why boys are being outclassed indicators by girls, page 61. Progress in Finance and economics Statistics on 42 improving women’s chances in 71 Global banks economies, plus our Principal commercial offices: the workplace is mixed, page 66 A world of pain monthly poll of forecasters 25 St James’s Street, London sw1a 1hg Tel: 020 7830 7000 72 Buttonwood Rue de l’Athénée 32 The curse of scale Obituary 1206 Geneva, Switzerland 75 Citigroup 94 Boris Nemtsov Tel: 4122 566 2470 The Citi never reaps The ruler who never was 750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10017 76 Greece’s economy Tel: 1212 5410500 Running on empty 60/F Central Plaza 18 Harbour Road, Wanchai, Hong Kong Tel: 852 2585 3888 Other commercial offices: Chicago, Dubai, Frankfurt, Los Angeles, Paris, San Francisco and Singapore Warren Buffett The sage of Omaha’s 50th annual missive to shareholders is unusually confusing, page 64 PEFC certified This copy of The Economist is printed on paper sourced from sustainably managed forests certified to PEFC PEFC/29-31-58 www.pefc.org © 2015 The Economist Newspaper Limited. 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Printed by Quad/Graphics, Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 “ You just don’t see many banks like this anymore – where a person is still a person and client needs come f rst.” JULIA HARTZ KEVIN HARTZ Co-Founder and President Co-Founder and CEO Eventbrite Eventbrite (855) 886-4824 or visit www.f rstrepublic.com New York Stock Exchange Symbol: FRC Member FDIC and Equal Housing Lender The world this week The Economist March 7th 2015 9 finance ministers ofGermany Ferguson’s “policing practices accusation, was found dead in Politics and the Netherlands denied disproportionately harm” January. The prosecutor now that a new bail-out was being blackresidents, but he is not dealing with Mr Nisman’s discussed. The remarks contin- bringing charges against the claims has appealed against ued a war ofwords begun officer, who says he shot the the judge’s ruling. when Alexis Tsipras, the far- teen in self-defence. left Greekprime minister, Lowering expectations accused Spain ofworking to Hillary Clinton reportedly undermine his Syriza party for used a private e-mail account fear ofits own far-left move- to conduct nearly all her offi- ment, Podemos.