October 2005 An Uncertain Road Muslims and the Future of Europe New research from the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & Public Life updates the demographic statistics in “An Uncertain Road” (2005), including estimates of the current size and projected growth of Europe’s Muslim population. Please see “The Future of the Global Muslim Population: Projections for 2010-2030” (2011). For additional information about Muslim migrants, please see “Faith on the Move: The Religious Affiliation of International Migrants” (2012). For additional background, please see “Muslim Networks and Movements in Western Europe” (2010). An Uncertain Road Muslims and the Future of Europe hroughout Europe today, it is not un- Amid these demographic shifts lies a host of common to see women wearing head- social challenges. While many European Mus- T scarves and men with skull caps and lims have become successful in their new beards. On many European streets, shops homes, many others do not speak their host now sport signs in Arabic and other Near country’s language well, if at all, and are often Eastern languages and sell an array of exotic- jobless and poor. Moreover, segregation, looking products from the Middle East and whether by choice or necessity, is common, other parts of the Islamic world. Indeed, in with large numbers of Muslims living in ghet- the space of a few decades, whole neighbor- tos where the crime and poverty rates are high. hoods in cities like Birmingham, Rotterdam For Europeans, too, Muslim immigration and Paris have been transformed. Streets that poses special challenges. Unlike the United have witnessed hundreds of years of European States – a land of immigrants with no domi- history are now playing host to a decidedly nant ethnic group – most nations in Europe non-Western people and culture. are built around a population base with a com- This is the new Europe, one in which a rapidly mon ethnicity. Moreover, these countries pos- growing Muslim population is making its pres- sess deep historical, cultural, religious and lin- ence felt in societies that until recently were guistic traditions. Injecting hundreds of thou- largely homogeneous. Muslims are still very sands, and in some cases millions, of people much minorities in Western and Central Euro- who look, speak and act differently into these pean countries, making up roughly 5 percent settings often makes for a difficult social fit. of the European Union’s total population. But a number of demographic trends point to dra- matic change in the years ahead. The argument over Turkey Islam is already the fastest-growing religion in raises the larger issue of Europe. Driven by immigration and high Europe’s troubled birthrates, the number of Muslims on the con- relationship with Islam. tinent has tripled in the last 30 years. Most demographers forecast a similar or even higher rate of growth in the coming decades. Tensions also have arisen over religion. The centrality of Islam in the lives of so many The social impact of this growing population is European Muslims is hard for increasingly magnified by a low birthrate among native secular Scandinavians, Germans and French- Europeans. After a post-World War II baby men to comprehend. Europeans worry that boom, birthrates in Europe have dropped to Islam will make it difficult for their Muslim The Forum is an average of 1.45 children per couple, far be- neighbors to accept many of the continent’s A Project of low the 2.1 needed to keep population growth core values, such as tolerance, democracy and The Pew at replacement levels. The continent that gave equal rights for women. Research the rest of the world tens of millions of immi- Center grants and Thomas Malthaus’ dire predictions These social pressures have been compounded of overpopulation is now faced with a shrink- by the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United october 2005 ing populace. States and subsequent events – particularly the AN UNCERTAIN ROAD Page 2 March 11, 2004, train bombings in Madrid, the killing of protest further EU enlargement. In particular, voters Dutch filmmaker Theo Van Gogh and, most recently, said, they were wary of the addition of Turkey. the bombings and attempted bombings in July 2005 on Indeed, opinion polls in most EU countries show that the transport system in London. Terrorism and its link despite the support of much of Europe’s political elite, to radical Islam have made Europeans even more wary the continent’s populace remains skeptical of the bene- of Muslims, especially those living within their midst. In fits of including a largely Near Eastern and Muslim the case of the London attacks, the perpetrators were country of 70 million in Europe’s grand experiment. born and raised in Britain, a circumstance that many in Moreover, not all political leaders support Turkish ac- the U.K. found as disturbing as the acts of violence cession. For instance, Germany’s new chancellor, An- themselves. gela Merkel, and France’s interior minister and leading The growing presence of Muslims on the continent cou- presidential aspirant, Nicholas Sarkozy, both openly op- pled with increased social tensions have provided fuel pose Turkish membership. for xenophobic, nativist political parties throughout The argument over Turkey goes beyond the geopolitical Europe, helping to propel a number of them into the pluses and minuses of EU membership and raises the political mainstream. Meanwhile, terrorism-related fears larger issue of Europe’s troubled relationship with Islam. have led most European countries to pass stiffer anti- It is an old acquaintance, one stretching back more than terror measures. The recent attacks in London in par- 1,300 years. And it is marked by countless wars and ticular have led Britain and other states to propose even occupations as well as a vibrant, steady cultural ex- tougher laws. change. Over the last 40 or more years, though, the relationship has entered a new phase, one dominated by the largely peaceful migration of Muslims to Europe, Muslims will be a significant and usually in search of work or freedom. sizable minority that will play an European governments have grappled with this migra- important role in shaping the tion in various ways and with varying degrees of success. Some countries, such as France and Britain, have had continent’s future. relatively well-established policies toward immigrants for decades. And Britain, in particular, has had some suc- cess in integrating Muslim newcomers into the broader Into this volatile mix comes the continent-wide, dec- society. Other states, such as Germany, Spain and Italy, ades-old debate over whether Turkey should be admit- have, until recently, treated their Muslim communities as ted into the European Union (EU). Some of Europe’s temporary phenomena – groups of “guest workers” or most important leaders, including France’s Jacques foreigners who would eventually return to their home- Chirac, Britain’s Tony Blair and Spain’s Jose Luis Zapa- lands. tero, have publicly stated that they favor eventual EU membership for Turkey. In addition, supporters of But the growing size and importance of the Muslim Turkish accession have scored a number of key victories population in most European countries is forcing the in the last year, most notably the start of formal mem- continent’s governments – even those with established bership talks on October 4, 2005. immigration policies – to focus more intently on trying to bring this community into the mainstream. Recent But at the same time, long-term prospects for Turkish efforts have ranged from new laws aimed at hastening accession have dimmed considerably. In May and June the pace of assimilation, such as the recent French head- 2005, voters in France and then the Netherlands re- scarf ban, to proposals to assist in creating a more jected the proposed EU constitution. While the consti- homegrown, European brand of Islam, as is happening tution never mentions Turkey, exit polls in both coun- in the Netherlands. tries indicate that many people voted “no” in part to AN UNCERTAIN ROAD Page 3 million – lives in the 25 countries that now make up the Muslims in Europe in 2003 EU. Most of the rest live in the Balkans, notably Bos- Population nia, Kosovo, Albania and Macedonia, small states or Percentage (in millions) quasi-states where Muslims comprise either the majority or a substantial minority of the population. France 8% 5 Within the EU, France has the largest Muslim popula- Netherlands 6 1 tion – as many as 5 million people, most from North Germany 4 3.5 Africa, comprising about 8 percent of the country’s total Belgium 4 0.4 population. Germany, with up to 3.5 million, is home to Austria 4 0.3 the second largest group of Muslims, followed by Eng- United Kingdom 3 1.6 land with 1.6 million and Spain and Italy with roughly 1 Sweden 3 0.3 million each. Italy 2 1 While these communities are sizable, Muslims still only Spain 2 1 make up a small portion of Europe’s population, no Bosnia Herzegovina 40 1.5 more than about 5 percent of the EU’s more than 425 million people. But most demographers predict that Source: International Religious Freedom Report 2004, U.S. Department of State that number will increase dramatically in the coming decades – to 10 percent as early as 2020. Indeed, if the The successful integration of European Muslims is cru- past is any guide, that estimate may be low, since the size cial to the future of Europe. Prognosticators may dis- of the European-Muslim community has tripled in the agree on the community’s ultimate demographic and last 30 years. social impact, but all believe that Muslims at the very This rapid growth is caused both by immigration and by least will be a significant and sizable minority that will high Muslim birthrates.